Atmospheric modeling: a tool to identify locations best suited for vine cultivation. Preliminary results in the Stellenbosch region

Anthocyanin potential of grape berries is an important quality factor in wine production. Anthocyanin concentration and profile differ among varieties but it also depends on the environmental conditions, which are expected to be greatly modified by climate change in the future. These modifications may significantly modify the biochemical composition of berries at harvest, and thus wine typicity. Among the diverse approaches proposed to reduce the potential negative effects that climate change may have on grape quality, genetic diversity among clones can represent a source of potential candidates to select better adapted plant material for future climatic conditions. The effects of individual and combined factors associated to climate change (increase of temperature, rise of air CO2 concentration and water deficit) on the anthocyanin profile of different clones of Tempranillo that differ in the length of their reproductive cycle were studied. The aim was to highlight those clones more adapted to maintain specific Tempranillo typicity in the future. Fruit-bearing cuttings were grown in controlled conditions under two temperatures (ambient temperature versus ambient temperature + 4ºC), two CO2 levels (400 ppm versus 700 ppm) and two water regimes (well-watered versus water deficit), both in combination or independently, in order to simulate future climate change scenarios. Elevated temperature increased anthocyanin acylation, whereas elevated CO2 and water deficit favoured the accumulation of malvidin derivatives, as well as the acylation and tri-hydroxylation level of anthocyanins. Although the changes in anthocyanin profile observed followed a common pattern among clones, such impact of environmental conditions was especially noticeable in one of the most widely distributed Tempranillo clones, the accession RJ43.

Choosing the rootstock, the scion variety and the training system best suited to the local soil and climate are the key elements for an economically sustainable production of wine. The choice of the rootstock/scion variety best adapted to the characteristics of the soil is essential but, by changing climatic conditions, ongoing climate change disrupts the fine-tuned local equilibrium. Higher temperatures induce shifts in developmental stages, with on the one hand increasing fears of spring frost damages and, on the other hand, ripening during the warmest periods in summer. Expected higher water demand and longer and more frequent drought events are also major concerns. The genetic control of the phenotypes, by genomic information but also by the epigenetic control of gene expression, offers a lot of opportunities for adapting the plant material to the future. For complex traits, genomic selection is also a promising method for predicting phenotypes. However, ecophysiological modelling is necessary to better anticipate the phenotypes in unexplored climatic conditions Genetic approaches applied on parameters of ecophysiological models rather than raw observed data are more than ever the basis for finding, or building, the ideal varieties of the future.

Global warming is one of the biggest environmental, social, and economic threats. In the Douro Valley, change to the climate are expected in the coming years, namely an increase in average temperature and a decrease in annual precipitation. Since vine cultivation is extremely vulnerable and influenced by the climate, these changes are likely to have negative effects on the production and quality of wine.
Adaptation is a major challenge facing the viticulture sector where the choice of plant material plays an important role, particularly the rootstock as it is a driver for adaptation with a wide range of effects, the most important being phylloxera, nematode and salt, tolerance to drought and a complex set of interactions in the grafted plant.
In an experimental vineyard, established in the Douro Region in 1997, with four randomized blocs, with five varieties, Touriga Nacional, Tinta Barroca, Touriga Franca and Tinta Roriz, grafted in four rootstocks, Rupestris du Lot, R110, 196-17C, R99 and 1103P, data was collected consecutively over 20 years (2001-2020). Phenological observations were made two to three times a week, following established criteria, to determine the average dates of budbreak, flowering and veraison. During maturation, weekly berry samples were taken to study the dynamics of sugar accumulation, amongst other parameters. Climate data was collected from a weather station located near the vineyard parcel, with data classified through several climatic indices.
The results achieved show a very low coefficient of variations in the average date of the phenophases and an important contribution from the rootstock in the dynamic of the phenology, allowing a delay in the cycle of up to10-12 days for the different combinations. The Principal Component Analysis performed, evaluating trends in the physical-chemical parameters, highlighted the effect of the climate and rootstock on fruit quality by grape varieties.

Monitoring vine water status is a major challenge for vineyard management because it influences both yield and harvest quality. It is also a challenge at the territorial scale for identifying periods of high water restriction or zones regularly impacted by water stress. This information is of major importance for defining collective strategies, anticipating harvest logistic or applying for irrigation authorisation. At this spatial scale, existing tools and methods for monitoring vine water status are few and often require strong assumptions (e.g. water balance model). This paper proposes to consider a collaborative collection of observations by winegrowers and wine industry stakeholders (crowdsourcing) as an interesting alternative. Indeed, it allows the collection of a large number of field observations while pooling the collection effort. However, the feasibility of such a project and its interest in monitoring vine water status at regional scale has never been tested.

The objective of this article is to explore the possibility of making a regional map of vine water status based on crowdsourcing observations. It is based on the study of the free mobile application ApeX-Vigne, which allows the collection of observations about vine shoot growth. This information is easy to collect and can be considered, under certain conditions, as a proxy for vine water status. This article presents the first results obtained from the nearly 18,000 observations collected by winegrowers and wine industry stakeholders during 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons. It presents the vine shoot growth maps obtained at regional scale and their evolution over the three vintages studied. It also proposes an analysis of the factors that favoured the number of observations collected and those that favoured their quality. These results open up new perspectives for monitoring vine water status at a regional scale but above they provide references for other crowdsourcing projects in viticulture.

To evaluate the current and future impact of climate change on Viticulture requires an integrated view on a complex interacting system within the soil-plant-atmospheric continuum under continuous change. Aside of the globally observed increase in temperature in basically all viticulture regions for at least four decades, we observe several clear trends at the regional level in the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Additionally the recently published 6th assessment report of the IPCC (The physical science basis) shows case-dependent further expected shifts in climate patterns which will have substantial impacts on the way we will conduct viticulture in the decades to come.
Looking beyond climate developments, we observe rising temperatures in the upper soil layers which will have an impact on the distribution of microbial populations, the decay rate of organic matter or the storage capacity for carbon, thus affecting the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the viscosity of water in the soil-plant pathway, altering the transport of water. If the upper soil layers dry out faster due to less rainfall and/or increased evapotranspiration driven by higher temperatures, the spectral reflection properties of bare soil change and the transport of latent heat into the fruiting zone is increased putting a higher temperature load on the fruit. Interactions between micro-organisms in the rhizosphere and the grapevine root system are poorly understood but respond to environmental factors (such as increased soil temperatures) and the plant material (rootstock for instance), respectively the cultivation system (for example bio-organic versus conventional). This adds to an extremely complex system to manage in terms of increased resilience, adaptation to and even mitigation of climate change. Nevertheless, taken as a whole, effects on the individual expressions of wines with a given origin, seem highly likely to become more apparent.