Atmospheric modeling: a tool to identify locations best suited for vine cultivation. Preliminary results in the Stellenbosch region

Late spring frost is a major challenge for various winegrowing regions across the world, its occurrence often leading to important yield losses and/or plant failure. Despite a significant increase in minimum temperatures worldwide, the spatial and temporal evolution of spring frost risk under a warmer climate remains largely uncertain. Recent projections of spring frost risk for viticulture in Europe throughout the 21st century show that its evolution strongly depends on the model approach used to simulate budburst. Furthermore, the frost damage modelling methods used in these projections are usually not assessed through comparison to field observations and/or frost damage reports.
The present study aims at comparing frost risk projections simulated using six spring frost models based on two approaches: a) models considering a fixed damage threshold after the predicted budburst date (e.g BRIN, Smoothed-Utah, Growing Degree Days, Fenovitis) and b) models considering a dynamic frost sensitivity threshold based on the predicted grapevine winter/spring dehardening process (e.g. Ferguson model). The capability of each model to simulate an actual frost event for the Vitis vinifera cv. Chadonnay B was previously assessed by comparing simulated cold thermal stress to reports of events with frost damage in Chablis, the northernmost winegrowing region of Burgundy. Models exhibited scores of κ > 0.65 when reproducing the frost/non-frost damage years and an accuracy ranging from 0.82 to 0.90.
Spring frost risk projections throughout the 21st century were performed for all winegrowing subregions of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté under two CMIP5 concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) using statistically downscaled 8×8 km daily air temperature and humidity of 13 climate models. Contrasting results with region-specific spring frost risk trends were observed. Three out of five models show a decrease in the frequency of frost years across the whole study area while the other two show an increase that is more or less pronounced depending on winegrowing subregion. Our findings indicate that the lack of accuracy in grapevine budburst and dehardening models makes climate projections of spring frost risk highly uncertain for grapevine cultivation regions.

Precision viticulture consists in using ICT (Information and Communication Technology) to implement more specific and better targeted technical vine practices. With proxy-detection

Spring freeze events threaten grape production globally. As grape buds emerge from dormancy in spring, freezing temperatures have the potential to damage green tissues, decreasing yield potential and compromising fruit quality by harvest.

Current remote sensing strategies rely heavily on reflectance data and energy balance modelling using thermal imagery to estimate crop water use and stress. These approaches show great promise for driving precision management decisions, but still require work to better understand how detected changes relate to meaningful physiological changes. Under water stress, grapevines exhibit a range of responses involving both biological and physical changes within leaves and canopies.

The wine industry widely recognizes that early-harvested grapes or those with uneven ripeness at harvest can produce wines with an “unripe fruit” mouthfeel [1,2]. Despite this, it is still unknown which compounds cause these sensory flaws or the most effective winemaking techniques to address them.