terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Modeling the suitability of Pinot Noir in Oregon’s Willamette Valley in a changing climate

Modeling the suitability of Pinot Noir in Oregon’s Willamette Valley in a changing climate

Abstract

Air temperature is the key driver of grapevine phenology and a significant environmental factor impacting yield and quality for a winegrape growing region. In this study the optimal downscaled CMIP5 ensemble for computing thegrowing season average temperature (GST) viticulture climate classification index was determined to spatially compute on a decadal basis predictions of the GST climate index and the grapevine sugar ripeness (GSR) model for Pinot Noir throughout the Willamette Valley (WV) American Viticultural Area (AVA). Forecasts for average temperature and a 220 g/L target sugar concentration level were computed using daily Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled CMIP5 historic and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) future climate projections of minimum and maximum daily temperature. We explore spatiotemporal trends of the GST climate classification index and Pinot Noir specific applications of the GSR phenology model for the WV AVA. Spatiotemporal computations of the GST climate index and Pinot Noir specific applications of the GSR model enable the opportunity to explore relationships between their computed values with one intent being to provide updated GST ranges that better align with current temperature-based modeling understanding of Pinot Noir grapevine phenology and the viticultural application of LOCA CMIP5 climate projections for the WV AVA. The Pinot Noir specific applications of the GSR model or the GST index with updated bounds indicate that the percent of the WV AVA area suitable for Pinot Noir production is currently at or near its peak value in the upper 80s to lower 90s of this century.

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Poster

Authors

Bryan Berenguer1, Brian Skahill1 and Manfred Stoll2

1Chemeketa Community College, Northwest Wine Studies Center, Salem, United States
2Hochschule Geisenheim University, Department of General and Organic Viticulture, Geisenheim, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

downscaled CMIP5, ensemble, modeling, growing season average temperature, grapevine sugar ripeness, Pinot Noir, suitability, Willamette Valley, AVA

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

Zoning for drinking, tasting the territory place (“Great Zonation”): first considerations and methodology

Following the idea of « Grande Filiera » (GF) (Great chain), of « Grande Zonazione » (GZ) (Great Zonation), of “interpretation, estimation and valorisation of vineyards and wines landscape, of “qualities”(we have classified more than ninety), of quality economy.

PHENOLICS DYNAMICS OF BERRIES FROM VITIS VINIFERA CV SYRAH GRAFTED ON TWO CONTRASTING ROOTSTOCKS UNDER COMBINED SALINITY AND WATER STRESSORS AND ITS EFFECT ON WINE QUALITY

Wine regions are getting warmer as average temperatures continue raising affecting grape growth, berry composition and wine production. Berry quality was evaluated in plants of Vitis vinifera cv Syrah grafted on two rootstocks, Paulsen (PL1103) and SO4, and grown under two salinity concentrations (LS:0.7dS/m and HS:2.5dSm-1) in combination with two irrigation regimes (HW:133% and CW:100%), being the seasonal water application 483mm (control, 100%). Spectrophotometer measurements from berry skin during veraison and harvest stages and from “young” wine samples, were indicative of the stressors effect and the mediation of the rootstocks. At veraison (i) total phenolics content were high under LSHW (0.7dSm-1 and high water conditions) for SO4 and PL1103.

REGULATION OF CENTRAL METABOLISM IN THE LEAVES OF A GRAPE VINES VA- RIETAL COLLECTION ON A TEMPERATURE CLINE

Grape (Vitis vinifera) is one of the world’s oldest agricultural fruit crops, grown for wine, table grape, raisin, and other products. One of the factors that can cause a reduction in the grape growing area is temperature rise due to climate change. Elevated temperature causes changes in grapevine phenology and fruit chemical composition. Previous studies showed that grape varieties respond differently to a temperature shift of 1.5°C; few varieties had difficulties in the fruit development or could not reach the desired Brix level.

Making sense of available information for climate change adaptation and building resilience into wine production systems across the world

Effects of climate change on viticulture systems and winemaking processes are being felt across the world. The IPCC 6thAssessment Report concluded widespread and rapid changes have occurred, the scale of recent changes being unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years. These changes will continue under all emission scenarios considered, including increases in frequency and intensity of hot extremes, heatwaves, heavy precipitation and droughts. Wine companies need tools and models allowing to peer into the future and identify the moment for intervention and measures for mitigation and/or avoidance. Previously, we presented conceptual guidelines for a 5-stage framework for defining adaptation strategies for wine businesses. That framework allows for direct comparison of different solutions to mitigate perceived climate change risks. Recent global climatic evolution and multiple reports of severe events since then (smoke taint, heatwave and droughts, frost, hail and floods, rising sea levels) imply urgency in providing effective tools to tackle the multiple perceived risks. A coordinated drive towards a higher level of resilience is therefore required. Recent publications such as the Australian Wine Future Climate Atlas and results from projects such as H2020 MED-GOLD inform on expected climate change impacts to the wine sector, foreseeing the climate to expect at regional and vineyard scale in coming decades. We present examples of practical application of the Climate Change Adaptation Framework (CCAF) to impacts affecting wine production in two wine regions: Barossa (Australia) and Douro (Portugal). We demonstrate feasibility of the framework for climate adaptation from available data and tools to estimate historical climate-induced profitability loss, to project it in the future and to identify critical moments when disruptions may occur if timely measures are not implemented. Finally, we discuss adaptation measures and respective timeframes for successful mitigation of disruptive risk while enhancing resilience of wine systems.

The effect of wine cork closures on volatile sulfur compounds during accelerated post-bottle ageing in Shiraz wines

Reduced off-flavour is an organoleptic defect due to an excess of volatile sulfur compounds (VSC) in wine and often happening in Shiraz wines. This off-flavour is a direct consequence of the lack of oxygen flow during winemaking and bottle storage. Therefore, wine closure could have a direct impact on the formation of VSC due to the oxygen transfer rate that can modulate their levels. Even if dimethylsulfide (DMS) contributes to reduced off-flavor, it is also a fruity note enhancer in wine and its evolution during wine ageing is not well understood.