terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Modeling the suitability of Pinot Noir in Oregon’s Willamette Valley in a changing climate

Modeling the suitability of Pinot Noir in Oregon’s Willamette Valley in a changing climate

Abstract

Air temperature is the key driver of grapevine phenology and a significant environmental factor impacting yield and quality for a winegrape growing region. In this study the optimal downscaled CMIP5 ensemble for computing thegrowing season average temperature (GST) viticulture climate classification index was determined to spatially compute on a decadal basis predictions of the GST climate index and the grapevine sugar ripeness (GSR) model for Pinot Noir throughout the Willamette Valley (WV) American Viticultural Area (AVA). Forecasts for average temperature and a 220 g/L target sugar concentration level were computed using daily Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled CMIP5 historic and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) future climate projections of minimum and maximum daily temperature. We explore spatiotemporal trends of the GST climate classification index and Pinot Noir specific applications of the GSR phenology model for the WV AVA. Spatiotemporal computations of the GST climate index and Pinot Noir specific applications of the GSR model enable the opportunity to explore relationships between their computed values with one intent being to provide updated GST ranges that better align with current temperature-based modeling understanding of Pinot Noir grapevine phenology and the viticultural application of LOCA CMIP5 climate projections for the WV AVA. The Pinot Noir specific applications of the GSR model or the GST index with updated bounds indicate that the percent of the WV AVA area suitable for Pinot Noir production is currently at or near its peak value in the upper 80s to lower 90s of this century.

Download the PDF

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Poster

Authors

Bryan Berenguer1, Brian Skahill1 and Manfred Stoll2

1Chemeketa Community College, Northwest Wine Studies Center, Salem, United States
2Hochschule Geisenheim University, Department of General and Organic Viticulture, Geisenheim, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

downscaled CMIP5, ensemble, modeling, growing season average temperature, grapevine sugar ripeness, Pinot Noir, suitability, Willamette Valley, AVA

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

On the losses of dissolved CO2 during champagne aging

A misconception lingers in the minds of some wine consumers that Champagne wines don’t age. It’s largely a myth, certainly as far as the best cuvees are concerned. Actually, during the so-called autolysis period of time (in the closed bottle, after the “prise de mousse”), complex chemical reactions take place when the wine remains in contact with the dead yeast cells, which progressively bring complex and very much sought-after aromas to champagne. Nevertheless, despite their remarkable impermeability to liquid and air, caps or natural cork stoppers used to cork the bottles are not 100% hermetic with regard to gas transfers. Gas species therefore very slowly diffuse through the cap or cork stopper, along their respective inverse partial pressure. After the “prise de mousse”, because the partial pressure of CO2 in the bottleneck reaches up to 6 bars (at 12 °C), gaseous CO2 progressively diffuse from the bottle to the ambient air
(where the partial pressure of gaseous CO2 is only of order of 0,0004 bar).

Read More

The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science.

Read More

Comparative studies on the dynamics of fermentation of selected wine yeasts

Alcoholic fermentation is an anaerobic biochemical process of oxidation-reduction in which carbohydrates are metabolized by the action of yeast enzymes in major products

Read More

Greek and Cypriot grape varieties as a sustainable solution to mitigate climate change

Aim: The aim of this report is to present evidence on the potential of Greek and Cypriot grape varieties to serve as a sustainable solution to mitigate climate change.

Methods and Results: The work provides a review of recent works involving Greek and Cypriot varieties’ performance under high temperatures and increased dryness.

Read More

Le terre dei Lambruschi modenesi

La superficie vitata della provincia di Modena é per circa il 70% interessata dai Lambruschi, famiglia di vitigni tipica dei territori pianeggianti emiliani. Tra questi, i più rappresentativi sono il Lambrusco di Sorbara, il Lambrusco salamino e il Lambrusco grasparossa che, unico esempio, predilige gli ambienti collinari della provincia. Nel quinquennio 2001-2005 la Provincia di Modena ed il C.R.P.V. hanno coordinato la zonazione viticola di tutto il territorio dei Lambruschi modenesi, i cui risultati hanno consentito di individuare, in ciascuna zona D.O.C., alcune Terre in cui cias.

Read More