La valanga di fango che si è abbattuta nel Salemitano e nell’Avellinese, provocando decine di vittime, è stata causata in larga misura dalle insufficienti opere idrauliche e dalla manca­ta manutenzione di antiquati canali idrici.

Fossil fuel combustion continues to drive increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, consequently elevating the global annual mean temperature and specifically increasing the growing season temperatures in many of the world’s most important wine growing regions (IPCC 2014; Jones et al 2005). Grapes are sensitive to changes in growing season temperatures, and past models have shown a direct link between warming temperatures and earlier harvest dates (Cook and Wolkovich 2016). Globally, there have been shifts of 1-2 weeks for wine growing regions (Wolkovich et al 2017 and references within). The phenological shifts resulting from growing season temperature increases are documented internationally, and models predicting phenology using temperature are becoming more precise (Parker et al 2011).

In 2022, the area cultivated with grapes in Brazil counted 75 thousand ha. About 1/2 of the grape production is located in rio grande do sul state, in South Brazil. Nonetheless, the northeast region, especially the Sao Francisco River Valley (SFRV), is increasing its area and production, mainly pushed by table grapes. The states of bahia and pernambuco already respond for circa 1/3 of brazilian grape production.

A major goal of modern grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) breeding programs is the introgression of resistance genes along with desirable traits for better adaptation to climate change. Developmental stages have an impact on yield components and berry composition and are expected to shift towards earlier dates in the future. We investigated the genetic determinism of phenological stages in the progeny of a cross between two grapevine hybrids, each carrying several quantitative trait loci (QTL) for downy mildew and powdery mildew resistance.

The aim of this work was to analyze the phenology variability of Tempranillo and Chardonnay cultivars, related to the climatic characteristics in La Mancha Designation of Origin, and their potential changes under climate change scenarios. Phenological dates referred to budbreak, flowering, veraison and harvest were analyzed for the period 2000-2019. The weather conditions at daily time scale, recorded during the same period, were also evaluated. The thermal requirements to reach each of these phenological stages were calculated and expressed as the GDD accumulated from DOY=60. Changes in phenology were projected by 2050 and 2070 taking into account those values and the projected temperatures and precipitation, simulated under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios –RCP4.5 and RCP8.5– using an ensemble of models. The average phenological dates during the period under study were, April 16th ± 6.6 days and April 5th ± 6.0 days for budbreak, May 31st ± 6.0 days and May 27th ± 5.3 days for flowering, July 26th ± 5.6 days and July 25th ± 5.8 days for veraison, and Ago 23rd ± 10.8 days and Ago 17th ± 9.0 days for harvest, respectively, for Tempranillo and Chardonnay. The projected changes in temperature imply an average change in the maximum growing season (April-August) temperatures of 1.2 and 1.9°C by 2050, and 1.6 and 2.6°C by 2070, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. A reduction in precipitation is predicted, which vary between 15% for 2050 under RCP4.5 scenario and up to 30% by 2070 under RCP8.5. The advance of the phenological dates for 2050, could be of 6, 7, 7, and 8 days for Tempranillo and 4, 6, 6 and 9 days for Chardonnay, respectively for budbreak, flowering, veraison and harvest under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the advance could be up to 30% higher.