IVAS 2022 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 IVAS 9 IVAS 2022 9 Use of mathematical modelling and multivariate statistical process control during alcoholic fermentation of red wine

Use of mathematical modelling and multivariate statistical process control during alcoholic fermentation of red wine

Abstract

Cyberphysical systems can be seen in the wine industry in the form of precision oenology. Currently, limitations exist with established infrared chemometric models and first principle mathematical models in that they require a high degree of sample preparation, making it inappropriate for use in-line, or that few oenological parameters are considered. To our knowledge, a system which incorporates a more comprehensive mathematical model as well as in-line spectroscopic monitoring for the purpose of precision oenology has not yet been presented.

The use of first principle mathematical modelling was employed to predict the trends of alcoholic fermentation and oenological parameters in a four-phase model based on initial conditions. The components of interest were sugars, alcohol, biomass, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, phenolic parameters, and pH. The phases considered included the lees, the cap, the must, and an intermediate liquid phase present in the cap. For each phase, a system of ordinary differential equations was developed to describe the change of each of the components listed. Parameters such as mass transfer coefficients and partition coefficients need to be determined via regression during the model development stage. To obtain the necessary data, fermentations using three different cultivars (Shiraz, Merlot, and Cabernet Sauvignon) were conducted using three different temperatures (20oC, 25oC, and 28oC). Samples were taken once per day and chemical analysis took place for each of the components. A functional mathematical model capable of generating accurate forecasts for different oenological components using the chemical composition of grapes was attempted. Additionally, the model should describe the change in parameters due to cap mixing and increasing ethanol concentration. The model includes the boundary conditions which can be used to determine if a fermentation is deviating from desired progression.

To complete this process control system, it is still necessary to utilize partial least squares (PLS) calibration models for real time monitoring. Additionally, outlier identification, caused by abnormal spectra, was performed using statistical analysis allowing samples to be re-analysed. The use of machine learning techniques and the development of local and incremental models was explored to assess a live updating of the PLS models. The expected outcome of this study is a combined system using dynamic modelling to predict the fermentation and extraction trends and the monitoring with real time predictions generated by PLS models

DOI:

Publication date: June 23, 2022

Issue: IVAS 2022

Type: Article

Authors

Lambrecht Kiera Nareece¹, Du Toit Prof. W.J.¹, Louw Prof. T.M.²and Aleixandre Tudo Dr. J.L.¹,³

¹Stellenbosch University, South African Grape and Wine Research Institute, Department of Viticulture and Oenology
²Stellenbosch University, Department of Process Engineering
³Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Instituto de Ingenieria de Alimentos para el Desarrollo (IIAD), Departamento de Tecnología de Alimentos

Contact the author

Keywords

In-line monitoring, process control, dynamic modelling, chemometrics, live modelling

Tags

IVAS 2022 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Influence of climatic conditions on grape composition of Tempranillo in La Mancha DO (Spain)

The aim of this work was to analyze the variability in grape composition of the Tempranillo cultivar related to climatic conditions, in La Mancha Designation of Origin. Grape composition (sugar content, total acidity, pH, malic acid, and total and extractable anthocyanins) recorded during ripening, were analysed for the period 2000-2019. The weather conditions at daily time scale, recorded during the same period, were also evaluated. The relationships between grape parameters with climatic variables related to temperature and to water deficits, referring different periods between phenological events along the growing cycle, were evaluated using regression analysis. High variability in grape composition was observed in the period analysed. Total acidity varied between 3.7 and 7.3 gL-1 while malic acid varied between 1.2 and 4 gL-1. The extractable anthocyanins ranged between 526 and 972 mgL-1, and total anthocyanins ranged between 922 and 1388 mgL-1, being the lowest values recorded in the hottest year (2017). Total acidity decreased 0.77 gL-1 for an increase of 100 GDD, while malic acid decrease in 0.42 gL-1 for the same GDD increase, being the period between veraison and harvest the one that seemed to have higher influence on acidity. In addition, it was confirmed that increasing water deficits decreased acidity. Total and extractable anthocyanins increased in about 210 and 105 mgL-1, respectively, with an increase of 100 GDD from veraison to harvest, and the increase in water deficits favour the increase of anthocyanins, both total and extractable anthocyanins. Total and extractable anthocyanins concentration increased in 35 and 22 mgL-1 per an increase of 10 mm in the water deficit. These results can be of interest to understand the potential changes that grapes composition may suffer under future warmer climates.

The use of rootstock as a lever in the face of climate change and dieback of vineyard

As viticulture faces challenges such as climate change or vineyard dieback, the choice of the variety and rootstock becomes more and more crucial. To study rootstock levers in the Bordeaux region, a parcel of Cabernet Sauvignon (CS) was planted with four rootstocks in 2014. Twenty repetitions of each of the following four rootstocks were set up: 101-14 MGt, Nemadex AB, 420A MGt and Gravesac. The number of bunches, yields and pruning weights of the vine shoots were measured individually on 240 vines from 2017 to 2021. Since 2020, nitrogen status assessed by assimilable nitrogen level, hydric status assessed by δ13C and berry maturity were measured on 80 samples taken from 20 repetitions of the four rootstocks. A lower yield was measured for CS grafted onto Nemadex AB due to the lower number of bunches and the lower weight of berries. The differences between the other three rootstocks are small, but CS grafted onto 420A MGt was the most productive. The CS grafted onto Nemadex AB had the lowest pruning weight while 101-14 MGt had the highest. In 2020, δ13C showed a more moderate water stress with 101-14 MGt and 420A MGt than with Nemadex AB. Surprisingly, the Gravesac was under more stress than the 101-14 MGt. The nitrogen status in the berries was better for Nemadex AB but this was perhaps due to the significantly lower weight of the berries.Rootstock 101-14 MGt attained the highest accumulation of sugars in the berries while 420A MGt allows to preserve higher acidity. The parcel is still young which may explain some of the results. These measures must therefore be continued over the next several years to fully assess the effects of these rootstocks on the development of the vines and the quality of the production under new climatic conditions.

Effect of multi-level and multi-scale spectral data source on vineyard state assessment

Currently, the main goal of agriculture is to promote the resilience of agricultural systems in a sustainable way through the improvement of use efficiency of farm resources, increasing crop yield and quality under climate change conditions. This last is expected to drastically modify plant growth, with possible negative effects, especially in arid and semi-arid regions of Europe on the viticultural sector. In this context, the monitoring of spatial behavior of grapevine during the growing season represents an opportunity to improve the plant management, winegrowers’ incomes, and to preserve the environmental health, but it has additional costs for the farmer. Nowadays, UAS equipped with a VIS-NIR multispectral camera (blue, green, red, red-edge, and NIR) represents a good and relatively cheap solution to assess plant status spatial information (by means of a limited set of spectral vegetation indices), representing important support in precision agriculture management during the growing season. While differences between UAS-based multispectral imagery and point-based spectroscopy are well discussed in the literature, their impact on plant status estimation by vegetation indices is not completely investigated in depth. The aim of this study was to assess the performance level of UAS-based multispectral (5 bands across 450-800nm spectral region with a spatial resolution of 5cm) imagery, reconstructed high-resolution satellite (Sentinel-2A) multispectral imagery (13 bands across 400-2500 nm with spatial resolution of <2 m) through Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach, and point-based field spectroscopy (collecting 600 wavelengths across 400-1000 nm spectral region with a surface footprint of 1-2 cm) in a plant status estimation application, and then, using Bayesian regularization artificial neural network for leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) and plant water status (LWP) prediction. The test site is a Greco vineyard of southern Italy, where detailed and precise records on soil and atmosphere systems, in-vivo plant monitoring of eco-physiological parameters have been conducted.

Variations of soil attributes in vineyards influence their reflectance spectra

Knowledge on the reflectance spectrum of soil is potentially useful since it carries information on soil chemical composition that can be used to the planning of agricultural practices. If compared with analytical methods such as conventional chemical analysis, reflectance measurement provides non-destructive, economic, near real-time data. This paper reports results from reflectance measurements performed by spectroradiometry on soils from two vineyards in south Brazil. The vineyards are close to each other, are on different geological formations, but were subjected to the same management. The objective was to detect spectral differences between the two areas, correlating these differences to variations in their chemical composition, to assess the technique’s potential to predict soil attributes from reflectance data.To that end, soil samples were collected from ten selected vine parcels. Chemical analysis yield data on concentration of twenty-one soil attributes, and spectroradiometry was performed on samples. Chemical differences significant to a 95% confidence level between the two studied areas were found for six soil attributes, and the average reflectance spectra were separated by this same level along most of the observed spectral domain. Correlations between soil reflectance and concentrations of soil attributes were looked for, and for ten soil traits it was possible to define wavelength domains were reflectance and concentrations are correlated to confidence levels from 95% to 99%. Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) analyses were performed comparing measured and predicted concentrations, and for fifteen out of 21 soil traits we found Pearson correlation coefficients r > 0.8. These preliminary results, which have to be validated, suggest that variations of concentration in the investigated soil attributes induce differences in reflectance that can be detected by spectroradiometry. Applications of these observations include the assessment of the chemical content of soils by spectroradiometry as a fast, low-cost alternative to chemical analytical methods.

Grapevine yield estimation in a context of climate change: the GraY model

Grapevine yield is a key indicator to assess the impacts of climate change and the relevance of adaptation strategies in a vineyard landscape. At this scale, a yield model should use a number of parameters and input data in relation to the information available and be able to reproduce vineyard management decisions (e.g. soil and canopy management, irrigation). In this study, we used data from six experimental sites in Southern France (cv. Syrah) to calibrate a model of grapevine yield limited by water constraint (GraY). Each yield component (bud fertility, number of berries per bunch, berry weight) was calculated as a function of the soil water availability simulated by the WaLIS water balance model at critical phenological phases. The model was then evaluated in 10 grapegrowers’ plots, covering a diversity of biophysical and technical contexts (soil type, canopy size, irrigation, cover crop). We identified three critical periods for yield formation: after flowering on the previous year for the number of bunches and berries, around pre-veraison and post-veraison of the same year for mean berry weight. Yields were simulated with a model efficiency (EF) of 0.62 (NRMSE = 0.28). Bud fertility and number of berries per bunch were more accurately simulated (EF = 0.90 and 0.77, NRMSE = 0.06 and 0.10, respectively) than berry weight (EF = -0.31, NRMSE = 0.17). Model efficiency on the on-farm plots reached 0.71 (NRMSE = 0.37) simulating yields from 1 to 8 kg/plant. The GraY model is an original model estimating grapevine yield evolution on the basis of water availability under future climatic conditions.  It allows to evaluate the effects of various adaptation levers such as planting density, cover crop management, fruit/leaf ratio, shading and irrigation, in various production contexts.