Water status modelling: impact of local rainfall variability in Burgundy (France)

Nous savons tous très bien qu’on a assisté au cours de ces dix dernières années à une éclosion soudaine de recherches sur le zonage viti-vinicole qui, à partir par exemple du modèle du concept de “terroir”, se sont de plus en plus enrichies en passant aux “Unités ou Systèmes de Transformation” (UTTE) et “Valorisation” (UTCE) pour terminer avec les “Systèmes productifs globaux du Territoire” (UTB) comprenant en filière les aspects existentiels (UTBES), sociaux (UTBSO) et économiques (UTBEC) hypothisés dans le “GRANDE ZONAZIONE: Grand zonage” (MORLAT R., 1996, CARBONNEAU A., 1996, TOUZARD J.M. 1998, CARBONNEAU A., CARGNELLO G., 1996, 1998, CARGNELLO G., 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001, -MILOTIC A., CARGNELLO G., PERSURIC G., 1999, PERSURIC G., STAYER M., CARGNELLO G., 2000, MILOTIC A., OPLANIC M., CARGNELLO G., PERSURIC G., 2000).

The aim of this work was to analyze the phenology variability of Tempranillo and Chardonnay cultivars, related to the climatic characteristics in La Mancha Designation of Origin, and their potential changes under climate change scenarios. Phenological dates referred to budbreak, flowering, veraison and harvest were analyzed for the period 2000-2019. The weather conditions at daily time scale, recorded during the same period, were also evaluated. The thermal requirements to reach each of these phenological stages were calculated and expressed as the GDD accumulated from DOY=60. Changes in phenology were projected by 2050 and 2070 taking into account those values and the projected temperatures and precipitation, simulated under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios –RCP4.5 and RCP8.5– using an ensemble of models. The average phenological dates during the period under study were, April 16th ± 6.6 days and April 5th ± 6.0 days for budbreak, May 31st ± 6.0 days and May 27th ± 5.3 days for flowering, July 26th ± 5.6 days and July 25th ± 5.8 days for veraison, and Ago 23rd ± 10.8 days and Ago 17th ± 9.0 days for harvest, respectively, for Tempranillo and Chardonnay. The projected changes in temperature imply an average change in the maximum growing season (April-August) temperatures of 1.2 and 1.9°C by 2050, and 1.6 and 2.6°C by 2070, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. A reduction in precipitation is predicted, which vary between 15% for 2050 under RCP4.5 scenario and up to 30% by 2070 under RCP8.5. The advance of the phenological dates for 2050, could be of 6, 7, 7, and 8 days for Tempranillo and 4, 6, 6 and 9 days for Chardonnay, respectively for budbreak, flowering, veraison and harvest under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the advance could be up to 30% higher.

Temperature is a relevant parameter during vineyard development, affecting vine phenology and grape maturity. Moreover, the climate of the different Chilean valleys influences the varieties cultivated, the ripening period and the final quality of the wines. The use of growing degree days (GDD) is known worldwide for the study of climate in viticulture regions. However, little is known about the evolution of maturity and the sugar loading stop, based on this parameter.

Climate change (CC) is altering grape/wine composition, challenging wine sensory quality. Rising temperatures increase grape sugar levels, with higher wine ethanol (EtOH) contents, reduce total acidity (TA) converging with increased pH and lead to the accumulation of CC odorous markers such as γ-nonalactone (γ-C9) and massoia lactone (ML).

Considérant d’une part la judicieuse mise au point d’un label de qualité contrôlée des miels suisses (STÖCKLI et al. 1997), considérant d’autre part l’élaboration d’une carte des paysages végétaux (HEGG et al. 1993),