Future scenarios for viticultural climatic zoning in Europe

Abstract

Climate is one of the main conditioning factors of winemaking. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for recent and future climate conditions. Maps of theses indices for recent decades (1961-2000) and for the XXI century (following the SRES A1B scenario) are considered to identify possible changes. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes, and is thus a valuable tool for viticultural zoning in a changing climate.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

A. C. Malheiro (1), J. A. Santos (1), H. Fraga (1), J. G. Pinto (2)

1) Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trásos-Montes e Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
(2) Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Köln, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

Viticultural zoning, scenarios, Europe, climate change, CLM

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Georgian vitis germplasm: conservation, research and usage

Grapevine Vitis vinifera L. is a leader perennial crops for the Republic of Georgia, the South Caucasus. This is a region where the first wine making practice was initiated 8.000 years ago (McGovern et al. 2017) and a spot of grape domestication. The country of Georgia holds 525 local and more than 60 breeding varieties – they are preserved in 9 field collections inside the country.The list of recommended wine cultivars contains 34 names, including 27 old autochthonous varieties and covering 94% of the country’s vineyards.

Stomatal restrictions to photosynthesis in grapevine cultivars grown in a semiarid environment

Diurnal changes in the leaves of field-grown grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) cultivars Syrah and Tempranillo were followed over summer 2009 with respect to gas exchanges. Net photosynthetic rate (AN) of both cultivars rapidly increased in the morning, decreasing slowly until the late afternoon, when reached the lowest values.

Assessing bunch architecture for grapevine yield forecasting by image analysis 

It is fundamental for wineries to know the potential yield of their vineyards as soon as possible for future planning of winery logistics. As such, non-invasive image-based methods are being investigated for early yield prediction. Many of these techniques have limitations that make it difficult to implement for practical use commercially. The aim of this study was to assess whether yield can be estimated using images taken in-field with a smartphone at different phenological stages.

Climate ethnography and wine environmental futures

Globalisation and climate change have radically transformed world wine production upsetting the established order of wine ecologies. Ecological risks and the future of traditional agricultural systems are widely debated in anthropology, but very little is understood of the particular challenges posed by climate change to viticulture which is seen by many as the canary in the coalmine of global agriculture. Moreover, wine as a globalised embedded commodity provides a particularly telling example for the study of climate change having already attracted early scientific attention. Studies of climate change in viticulture have focused primarily on the production of systematic models of adaptation and vulnerability, while the human and cultural factors, which are key to adaptation and sustainable futures, are largely missing. Climate experts have been unanimous in recognising the urgent need for a better understanding of the complex dynamics that shape how climate change is experienced and responded to by human systems. Yet this call has not yet been addressed. Climate ethnography, coined by the anthropologist Susan Crate (2011), aims to bridge this growing disjuncture between climate science and everyday life through the exploration of the social meaning of climate change. It seeks to investigate the confrontation of its social salience in different locations and under different environmental guises (Goodman 2018: 340). By understanding how wine producers make sense of the world (and the environment) and act in it, it proposes to focus on the co-production of interdisciplinary knowledge by identifying and foreshadowing problems (Goodman 2018: 342; Goodman & Marshall 2018). It seeks to offer an original, transformative and contrasted perspective to climate change scenarios by investigating human agency -individual or collective- in all its social, political and cultural diversity. An anthropological approach founded on detailed ethnographies of wine production is ideally placed to address economic, social and cultural disruptions caused by the emergence of these new environmental challenges. Indeed, the community of experts in environmental change have recently called for research that will encompass the human dimension and for more broad-based, integrated through interdisciplinarity, useful knowledge (Castree & al 2014). My paper seeks to engage with climate ethnography and discuss what it brings to the study of wine environmental futures while exploring the limitations of the anthropological environmental approach.

Zoning, environment, and landscape: historic and perspective

Dans une approche globale, nous proposons la définition suivante du zonage : “représentation cartographique associée à une sectorisation du territoire en zones unitaires homogènes à partir de facteurs discriminants établis sur la base d’indicateurs quantifiables et d’avis d’experts”. La première application de cette méthode a porté sur la caractérisation du terroir en liaison avec les aspects qualitatifs des vins. Il est également possible d’envisager d’appliquer cette démarche dans les stratégies environnementales et paysagères liées aux approches territoriales et aux pratiques viticoles. Cette méthode peut servir de base dans la mise en œuvre des outils financiers associés aux mesures environnementales (CTE, aides spécifiques).