terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Climate change projections to support the transition to climate-smart viticulture

Climate change projections to support the transition to climate-smart viticulture

Abstract

The Earth’s system is undergoing major changes through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales as a response to growing anthropogenic radiative forcing, which is pushing the whole system far beyond its natural variability. Sources of greenhouse gases largely exceed their sinks, thus leading to a strengthened greenhouse effect. More energy is thereby being supplied to the system, with inevitable shifts in climatic patterns and weather regimes. Over the last decades, these modifications have been manifested in the full statistical distributions of the atmospheric variables, with dramatic changes in the frequency and intensity of extremes. Natural hazards, such as severe droughts, floods, forest fires, or heatwaves, are being triggered by extreme atmospheric events worldwide, thus threatening human activities. Viticultculture is not only exposed to changing climates but is also highly vulnerable, as grapevine phenology and physiological development are strongly controlled by atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the assessment of climate change projections for a given region is critical for climate change adaptation and risk reduction in viticulture. By adopting timely and suitable measures, the future sustainability and resiliency of the sector can be fostered. Climate-grapevine chain modelling is an essential tool for better planning and management. However, the accuracy of the resulting projections is limited by many uncertainties that must be duly taken into account when transferring knowledge to stakeholders and decision-makers. Climate-smart viticulture will comprise ensembles of locally tuned strategies, envisioning both adaptation and mitigation, assisted by emerging technologies and decision-support systems.

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Article

Authors

João A. Santos1,2

1Centre for the Research and Technology of Agroenvironmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Vila Real, Portugal
2Physics Department, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Vila Real, Portugal

Contact the author

Keywords

climate change, projections, adaptation, risk reduction, viticulture

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

Sustainable fertilisation of the vineyard in Galicia (Spain)

Excessive fertilization of the vineyard leads to low quality grapes, increased costs and a negative impact on the environment. In order to establish an integrated management system aimed at a sustainable fertilization of the vineyards, nutritional reference levels were established. For this purpose, 30 representative vineyards of the Albariño variety were studied, in which soil and petiole analyses were carried out for two years and grape yield and quality at harvest were measured. In both years of study, soil pH, calcium, sodium and cation exchange capacity were positively correlated with calcium content and negatively correlated with manganese in grapes. Irrigated vineyards had higher levels of aluminium in soil and lower levels of calcium in petiole. Climatic conditions were very different in the years of the study. The year 2019 was colder than usual, in 2020 there was a marked water stress with high summer temperatures. This resulted in medium-high acidity in grapes in 2019 and low acidity in 2020, with sugar levels being similar both years. A very marked decrease in must amino nitrogen was observed in 2020, with ammonia nitrogen remaining stable. The correlation of acidity and sugar values in grapes with soil and petiole analysis data made it possible to establish reference levels for the nutritional diagnosis of the Albariño variety in this region. Based on these results, an easy-to-use TIC application is currently being created for grapegrowers, aimed at improving the sustainability of the vineyard through reasoned fertilization. This study has now been extended to other Galician vine varieties.

Soil, vine, climate change – what is observed – what is expected

To evaluate the current and future impact of climate change on Viticulture requires an integrated view on a complex interacting system within the soil-plant-atmospheric continuum under continuous change. Aside of the globally observed increase in temperature in basically all viticulture regions for at least four decades, we observe several clear trends at the regional level in the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Additionally the recently published 6th assessment report of the IPCC (The physical science basis) shows case-dependent further expected shifts in climate patterns which will have substantial impacts on the way we will conduct viticulture in the decades to come.
Looking beyond climate developments, we observe rising temperatures in the upper soil layers which will have an impact on the distribution of microbial populations, the decay rate of organic matter or the storage capacity for carbon, thus affecting the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the viscosity of water in the soil-plant pathway, altering the transport of water. If the upper soil layers dry out faster due to less rainfall and/or increased evapotranspiration driven by higher temperatures, the spectral reflection properties of bare soil change and the transport of latent heat into the fruiting zone is increased putting a higher temperature load on the fruit. Interactions between micro-organisms in the rhizosphere and the grapevine root system are poorly understood but respond to environmental factors (such as increased soil temperatures) and the plant material (rootstock for instance), respectively the cultivation system (for example bio-organic versus conventional). This adds to an extremely complex system to manage in terms of increased resilience, adaptation to and even mitigation of climate change. Nevertheless, taken as a whole, effects on the individual expressions of wines with a given origin, seem highly likely to become more apparent.

Measurement of redox potential as a new analytical winegrowing tool

Excell laboratory has initiated the development of an analytical method based on electrochemistry to evaluate the ability of wines to undergo or resist to oxidative phenomena. Electrochemistry is a powerful tool to probe reactions involving electron transfers and offers possibility of real-time measurements. In that context, the laboratory has implemented electrochemical analysis to assess oxidation state of different wine matrices but also in order to evaluate oxidative or reduced character of leaf and soil. Initially, our laboratory focused on dosage of compounds involved in responses of plant stresses and we were also interested in microbiological activity of soils. These analyses were compared with the measurement of redox potential (Eh) and pH which are two fundamental variables involved in the modulation of plant metabolism. Indeed, the variation of redox states of the plant reflects its biological activity but also its capacity to absorb nutriments. The Eh-pH conditions mainly determine metabolic processes involved in soil and leaf and our goal is to determine if this combined analytical approach will be sufficiently precise to detect biological evolutions (plant health, parasitic attack…).

Upscaling the integrated terroir zoning through digital soil mapping: a case study in the Designation of Origin Campo de Borja

homogeneous zones by intersecting several partial zonings of major factors that influence vineyard growth. Each of them follows specific process from their corresponding disciplines. Soil zoning specifically refers to a Soil Resource Inventory map that has traditionally been generated by conventional soil mapping methods. These methods have shortcomings in reaching fine cartographic and categorical details and involve significant expenses, which undermines their applicability. A new framework named Digital Soil Mapping has introduced quantitative models by statistical techniques to establish soil-landscape relationships and is able to provide intensive scale cartography.

In the present study, a microzoning at 1:10.000 scale is generated from an initial zoning, where the conventional soil map with polytaxic map units is replaced by a new one from digital techniques that disaggregates them. The comparison between the zonings considers a quantitative evaluation of capability for each Homogeneous Terroir Unit by means of the Viticultural Quality Index and its categorization based on its distribution by map. The spatial intersection of both maps gives rise to a confusion matrix in which the flows of class variations after the substitution are assessed.

The results show a five-fold increase in the number of Homogeneous Terroir Units identified and a larger differentiation among them, evidenced by a wider range in the capability index distribution. Both elements are accompanied by an increase in the detection of areas of higher potential within previously undervalued uniform zones.These features are a direct effect of the improvements brought by Digital Soil Mapping techniques and would verify the advantages of their implementation in the Integrated Terroir zoning. Eventually, such new highly detailed terroir units would benefit precision viticulture and sustainable management practices.

Grapevine sugar concentration model in the Douro Superior, Portugal

Increasingly warm and dry climate conditions are challenging the viticulture and winemaking sector. Digital technologies and crop modelling bear the promise to provide practical answers to those challenges. As viticultural activities strongly depend on harvest date, its early prediction is particularly important, since the success of winemaking practices largely depends upon this key event, which should be based on an accurate and advanced plan of the annual cycle. Herein, we demonstrate the creation of modelling tools to assess grape ripeness, through sugar concentration monitoring. The study area, the Portuguese Côa valley wine region, represents an important terroir in the “Douro Superior” subregion. Two varieties (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) grown in five locations across the Côa Region were considered. Sugar accumulation in grapes, with concentrations between 170 and 230 g l-1, was used from 2014 to 2020 as an indicator of technological maturity conditioned by meteorological factors. The climatic time series were retrieved from the EU Copernicus Service, while sugar data were collected by a non-profit organization, ADVID, and by Sogrape, a leading wine company. The software for calibrating and validating this model framework was the Phenology Modeling Platform (PMP), version 5.5, using Sigmoid and growing degree-day (GDD) models for predictions. The performance was assessed through two metrics: Roots Mean Square Error (RMSE) and efficiency coefficient (EFF), while validation was undertaken using leave-one-out cross-validation. Our findings demonstrate that sugar content is mainly dependent on temperature and air humidity. The models achieved a performance of 0.65