The interplay between grape ripening and weather anomalies – A modeling exercise

To evaluate the current and future impact of climate change on Viticulture requires an integrated view on a complex interacting system within the soil-plant-atmospheric continuum under continuous change. Aside of the globally observed increase in temperature in basically all viticulture regions for at least four decades, we observe several clear trends at the regional level in the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Additionally the recently published 6th assessment report of the IPCC (The physical science basis) shows case-dependent further expected shifts in climate patterns which will have substantial impacts on the way we will conduct viticulture in the decades to come.
Looking beyond climate developments, we observe rising temperatures in the upper soil layers which will have an impact on the distribution of microbial populations, the decay rate of organic matter or the storage capacity for carbon, thus affecting the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the viscosity of water in the soil-plant pathway, altering the transport of water. If the upper soil layers dry out faster due to less rainfall and/or increased evapotranspiration driven by higher temperatures, the spectral reflection properties of bare soil change and the transport of latent heat into the fruiting zone is increased putting a higher temperature load on the fruit. Interactions between micro-organisms in the rhizosphere and the grapevine root system are poorly understood but respond to environmental factors (such as increased soil temperatures) and the plant material (rootstock for instance), respectively the cultivation system (for example bio-organic versus conventional). This adds to an extremely complex system to manage in terms of increased resilience, adaptation to and even mitigation of climate change. Nevertheless, taken as a whole, effects on the individual expressions of wines with a given origin, seem highly likely to become more apparent.

This study aims to create an updated, agile viticultural climate index (similar to the Winkler Index) by performing in-depth analyses of current and historical data from industry partners in several major winegrowing regions. The Winkler Index was developed in the early twentieth century based on analysis of various grape-growing regions in California. The index uses heat accumulation (i.e. Growing Degree Days) throughout the growing season to determine which grape varieties are best suited to each region. As viticultural regions are increasingly subject to the complexity and uncertainty of a changing climate, a more rigorous, agile model is needed to aid grape growers in determining which cultivars to plant where. For the first phase of this study, 21 industry partners throughout Napa Valley shared historical phenology, harvest, viticultural practice, and weather data related to their Cabernet sauvignon vineyard blocks. To complement this data, berry samples were collected throughout the 2021 growing season from 50 vineyard blocks located throughout 16 American Viticultural Areas that were then analyzed for basic berry chemistry and phenolics. These blocks have been mapped using a Geographic Information System (GIS), enabling analysis of altitude, vineyard row orientation, slope, and remotely sensed climate data. Sampling sites were also chosen based on their proximity to a weather station. By analyzing historical data from industry partners and data specifically collected for this study, it is possible to identify key parameters for further analysis. Initial results indicate extreme variability at a high spatial resolution not currently accounted for in modern viticultural climate indices and suggest that viticultural practices play a major role. Using the structure of data collection and analyses developed for the first phase, this project will soon be expanded to other wine regions globally, while continuing data collection in Napa Valley.

Serbian autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka (for white wines) and Prokupac (for rosé and red wines) are the primary representatives of typical characteristics of wines and terroir of numerous wine-growing areas in Serbia. In the past, these varieties were the leading vine varieties, however, as the result of globalization of winemaking and the trend of consumption of wines from widely prevalent vine varieties, they were replaced by introduced international varieties. Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties are characterized by later time of grape ripening, and relative sensitivity to low temperatures. Climate conditions can be a restrictive factor for production of high-quality grapes and wine and for the spatial spreading of these varieties in hilly continental wine-growing areas.
This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of changes of main climate parameters, in particular, analysis of viticultural bioclimatic indices that were determined for the purposes of viticulture zoning of wine-growing areas in the period 1961-2010, and those same parameters determined for the current, that is, referential climate period (1988-2017). Results of the research, that is, analysis of climate changes indicate that the majority of examined climate parameters in the Oplenac wine-growing district improved from the perspective of Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties. These studies of climate conditions indicate that changes of analyzed climate parameters, that is, bioclimatic indices will be favorable for cultivation of varieties with later grape ripening times and those more sensitive to low temperatures, such as the autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka and Prokupac, therefore, it is recommended to producers to more actively plant vineyards with these varieties in the territory of the Oplenac wine-growing district.

Viticulture is entangled with weather and climate. Therefore, areas currently suitable for grape production can be challenged by climate change. Winegrowers in Italy already experiences the effect of climate change, especially in the form of warmer growing season, more frequent drought periods, and increased frequency of weather extremes.
The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of climate variability and change on grape yield in Italy to provide winegrowers the information needed to make their business more sustainable and resilient to climate change. We computed a specific range of bioclimatic indices, selected by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), and correlated them to grape yield data. We have worked in collaboration with some wine consortiums in northern and central Italy, which provided grape yield data for our analysis.
Using climate variables from the E-OBS dataset we investigate how the bioclimatic indices changed in the past, and the impact of this change on grape productivity in the study areas. The climate impact on productivity is also investigated by using high-resolution convection-permitting models (CPMs – 2.2 horizontal resolution), with the purpose of estimating productivity in future emission scenarios. The CPMs are likely the best available option for this kind of impact studies since they allow a better representation of small-scale processes and features, explicitly resolve deep convection, and show an improved representation of extremes. In our study, we also compare CPMs with regional climate models (RCMs – 12 km horizontal resolution) to assess the added value of high-resolution models for impact studies. Further development of our study will lead to assessing the future suitability for vine cultivation and could lead to the construction of a statistical model for future projection of grape yield.

In viticulture, the challenges of local climate modelling are multiple: taking into account the local environment, fine temporal and spatial scales, reliable time series of climate data, ease of implementation and reproducibility of the method. At the local scale, recent studies have demonstrated the contribution of spatialization methods for ground-based climate observation data considering topographic factors such as altitude, slope, aspect, and geographic coordinates (Le Roux et al, 2017; De Rességuier et al, 2020). However, these studies have shown questions in terms of the reproducibility and sustainability of this type of climate study. In this context, we evaluated the potential of MODIS thermal satellite images validated with ground-based climate data (Morin et al, 2020). Previous studies have been encouraging, but questions remain to be explored at the regional scale, particularly in the dynamics of the massive use of bioclimatic indices to classify the climate of wine regions. The results at the local scale were encouraging, but this approach was tested in the current study at the regional scale. Several objectives were set: 1) to evaluate the downscaling method for land surface temperature time series, 2) to identify regional thermal structure variations. We used weekly minimum and maximum surface temperature time series acquired by MODIS satellites at a spatial resolution of 1000 m and downscaled at 500 m using topographical variables. Two types of analyses were performed: