terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 The interplay between grape ripening and weather anomalies – A modeling exercise

The interplay between grape ripening and weather anomalies – A modeling exercise

Abstract

Current climate change is increasing inter- and intra-annual variability in atmospheric conditions leading to grapevine phenological shifts as well altered grape ripening and composition at ripeness. This study aims to (i) detect weather anomalies within a long-term time series, (ii) model grape ripening revealing altered traits in time to target specific ripeness thresholds for four Vitis vinifera cultivars, and (iii) establish empirical relationships between ripening and weather anomalies with forecasting purposes. The Day of the Year (DOY) to reach specific grape ripeness targets was determined from time series of sugar concentrations, total acidity and pH collected from a private company in the period 2009-2021 in North-Eastern Italy. Non-linear models for the DOY to reach the specified ripeness thresholds were assessed for model efficiency (EF) and error of prediction (RMSE) in four grapevine cultivars (Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, Glera and Garganega). For each vintage and cultivar, advances or delays in DOY to target specified ripeness thresholds were assessed with respect to the average ripening dynamics. Long-term meteorological series monitored at ground weather station by means of hourly air temperature and rainfall data were analyzed. Climate statistics were obtained and for each time period (month, bimester, quarter and year) weather anomalies were identified. A linear regression analysis was performed to assess a possible correlation that may exist between ripening and weather anomalies. For each cultivar, ripeness advances or delays expressed in number of days to target the specific ripening threshold were assessed in relation to registered weather anomalies and the specific reference time period in the vintage. Precipitation of the warmest month and spring quarter are key to understanding the effect of climate change on sugar ripeness. Minimum temperatures of May-June bimester and maximum temperatures of spring quarter best correlate with altered total acidity evolution and pH increment during the ripening process, respectively.

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Article

Authors

Franco Meggio

DAFNAE, Department of Agronomy, Food, Natural Resources, Animals and the Environment, University of Padova, Italy

Contact the author

Keywords

temperature, rainfall, sugar, acidity, climate change

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

Aromatic maturity is a cornerstone of terroir expression in red wine

Harvesting grapes at adequate maturity is key to the production of high-quality red wines. Enologists and wine makers define several types of maturity, including technical maturity, phenolic maturity and aromatic maturity. Technical maturity and phenolic maturity are relatively well documented in the scientific literature, while articles on aromatic maturity are scarcer. This is surprising, because aromatic maturity is, without a doubt, the most important of the three in determining wine quality and typicity (including terroir expression). Optimal terroir expression can be obtained when the different types of maturity are reached at the same time, or within a short time frame. This is more likely to occur when the ripening takes place under mild temperatures, neither too cool, nor too hot. Aromatic expression in wine can be driven, from low to high maturity, by green, herbal, fresh fruit, ripe fruit, jammy fruit, candied fruit or cooked fruit aromas. Green and cooked fruit aromas are not desirable in red wines, while the levels of other aromatic compounds contribute to the typicity of the wine in relation to its origin. Wines produced in cool climates, or on cool soils in temperate climates, are likely to express herbal or fresh fruit aromas; while wines produced under warm climates, or on warm soils in temperate climates, may express ripe fruit, jammy fruit or candied fruit aromas. Growers can optimize terroir expression through their choice of grapevine variety. Early ripening varieties perform better in cool climates and late ripening varieties in warm climates. Additionally, maturity can be advanced or delayed by different canopy management practices or training systems.

Effect of vigour and number of clusters on eonological parameters and metabolic profile of Cabernet Sauvignon red wines

Vegetative growth and yield are reported to affect grape and wine quality. They can be controlled through different techniques linked to vine management. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of vine vigour and number of clusters per vine on physicochemical composition and phenolic profile of red wines. The experiment was carried out during two vegetative cycles, with cv. Cabernet Sauvignon grafted onto Paulsen 1103. Three vine vigour were defined, according to shoot weight at previous harvests, being low, medium and high. Five treatments of number of clusters were used for each vigour, with 15, 22, 29, 36, and 45 clusters per vine. Grapes from all treatments were harvested in the same day from Brix and total acidity criteria. Thirty days after bottling, classical analyzes and phenolic compounds were performed. As results, different responses were obtained from each vintage. In 2020, a dry season from veraison to harvest, grapes and wines obtained from low vigour treatment and 45 clusters per vine was the highest in sugar and alcohol content respectively, while grapes and wines from high vigour and 15 clusters presented the lowest sugar and alcohol content. Total anthocyanins were higher in treatment with low vigour and 15 clusters, while the lowest amounts were found in low vigour with 45 clusters, as well as medium and high vigour with 36 clusters per vine. Total tannins were higher in high vigour with 22 clusters and medium vigour with 29 clusters, while were lower in low vigour with 36 clusters. In 2021, a wet season at harvest, responses were different, and great variations were observed between treatments. As conclusions, yield and vine vigour had strong influence on grape and wine quality, promoting different enological potentials on which can be indicated/used for aging strategies of red and even rosé wines.

The plantation frame as a measure of adaptation to climate change

The mechanization of vineyard work originally led to a reduction in planting densities due to the lack of machinery adapted to the vineyard. The current availability of specific machinery makes it possible to establish higher planting densities. In this work, three planting densities (1.40×0.80 m, 1.80×1 m and 2.20×1.20 m, corresponding to 8928, 5555 and 3787 plants/ha respectively) were studied with four varieties autochthonous of Galicia (northwestern Spain): Albariño and Treixadura (white), Sousón and Mencía (red). The vines were trained in a vertical shoot positioning system using a single Royat cordon, and pruned to spurs with two buds each. Agronomic data (yield, pruning wood weight, Ravaz index) and oenological data in must were collected. The higher planting density (1.40×0.80 m) had no significant effect on grape yield per vine in white varieties, although production per hectare was much higher due to the greater number of plants. In red varieties, this planting density resulted in a significantly lower production per vine, compensated by the greater number of plants. In addition, it significantly reduced the Brix degree in the must of the Albariño, Treixadura and Sousón varieties, and increased the total acidity in the latter two and Mencía. It also caused an increase in extractable and total anthocyanins and IPT in red grapes. The effects of high planting density on grapes are of great interest for the adaptation of varieties in the context of climate change. In the future, it could be advisable to modify the limits imposed by the appellations of origin on the planting density of these varieties in order to obtain more balanced wines.

Drought effect on aromatic and phenolic potential of seven recovered grapevine varieties in Castilla-La Mancha region (Spain)

The effects of climate change are seriously affecting the quality of wine grapes. High temperatures and drought cause imbalances in the chemical composition of grapes. The result is overripe grapes with low acidity and high sugar content, which produce wines with excessive alcohol content, lacking in freshness and not very aromatic. As a consequence, the search of varieties with capacity of produce quality grapes in adverse climate conditions is a good alternative to preserve the sustainability of vineyards. In this work, quality parameters of seven Vitis vinifera L. cultivars (five whites and two reds) recently recovered from extinction and grown under two different hydric regimes (rainfed and irrigated) were analyzed during the 2020 vintage. At harvest time, weight of 100 berries, must physicochemical parameters (brix degree, total acidity, malic acid, pH), and carbon and oxygen isotope ratios (δ13C, δ18O) were determined. Subsequently, varietal aroma potential index (IPAv) and total polyphenol index (TPI) were analyzed. Quality parameters, IPAv and TPI, showed significant differences between varieties and water regimes. Both red varieties, Moribel and Tinto Fragoso, stood out for their high aromatic and phenolic potential, which was higher under rainfed regime. Regarding to white varieties, Montonera del Casar and Jarrosuelto stood out in terms of varietal aroma potential. Montonera del Casar high acidity in its musts and Jarrosuelto showed the highest berry weights.

Geospatial trends of bioclimatic indexes in the topographically complex region of Barolo DOCG

Barolo DOCG is an economically important wine producing region in Northwest Italy. It is a small region of approximately 70 km2 gross area. The topography is very complex with steep sloped hills ranging in elevation from below 200 m to 550 m. Barolo DOCG wine is made exclusively from the Nebbiolo grape. Bioclimatic indexes are often used in viticulture to gain a better understanding of broader climate trends which can be compared temporally and geographically. These indexes are also used for identifying potential phenological timing, growing region suitability, and potential risks associated with expected climatic changes. Understanding how topography influences bioclimatic indexes can help with understanding of mesoscale climate behaviour leading to improved decision making and risk management strategies. The average monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, the Cool Night Index, the Huglin Index, and the monthly diurnal range (from July to October) were calculated using data from 45 weather stations within a 40 km radius of the Barolo DOCG growing area between the years 1996 and 2019. Linear and multiple regression models were developed using independent variables (elevation, aspect, slope) extracted from a digital elevation model to identify significant relationships. Bioclimatic indexes were then kriged with external drift using independent variables that showed significant relationships with the bioclimatic index using a 100 m resolution grid. The maximum monthly temperatures and the Huglin Index showed consistent significant negative relationships with elevation in all years. The minimum monthly temperatures showed no relationship with elevation but in some months a small but significant relationship was observed with aspect. Due to the lack of a relationship between minimum monthly temperatures and elevation compared to the significant relationship between maximum monthly temperatures and elevation, monthly diurnal range had a negative relationship with elevation.