terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 The interplay between grape ripening and weather anomalies – A modeling exercise

The interplay between grape ripening and weather anomalies – A modeling exercise

Abstract

Current climate change is increasing inter- and intra-annual variability in atmospheric conditions leading to grapevine phenological shifts as well altered grape ripening and composition at ripeness. This study aims to (i) detect weather anomalies within a long-term time series, (ii) model grape ripening revealing altered traits in time to target specific ripeness thresholds for four Vitis vinifera cultivars, and (iii) establish empirical relationships between ripening and weather anomalies with forecasting purposes. The Day of the Year (DOY) to reach specific grape ripeness targets was determined from time series of sugar concentrations, total acidity and pH collected from a private company in the period 2009-2021 in North-Eastern Italy. Non-linear models for the DOY to reach the specified ripeness thresholds were assessed for model efficiency (EF) and error of prediction (RMSE) in four grapevine cultivars (Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, Glera and Garganega). For each vintage and cultivar, advances or delays in DOY to target specified ripeness thresholds were assessed with respect to the average ripening dynamics. Long-term meteorological series monitored at ground weather station by means of hourly air temperature and rainfall data were analyzed. Climate statistics were obtained and for each time period (month, bimester, quarter and year) weather anomalies were identified. A linear regression analysis was performed to assess a possible correlation that may exist between ripening and weather anomalies. For each cultivar, ripeness advances or delays expressed in number of days to target the specific ripening threshold were assessed in relation to registered weather anomalies and the specific reference time period in the vintage. Precipitation of the warmest month and spring quarter are key to understanding the effect of climate change on sugar ripeness. Minimum temperatures of May-June bimester and maximum temperatures of spring quarter best correlate with altered total acidity evolution and pH increment during the ripening process, respectively.

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Article

Authors

Franco Meggio

DAFNAE, Department of Agronomy, Food, Natural Resources, Animals and the Environment, University of Padova, Italy

Contact the author

Keywords

temperature, rainfall, sugar, acidity, climate change

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

SENSORY PROPERTIES IMPORTANT TO AUSTRALIAN FINE WINE CONSUMER SEGMENT PERCEPTION OF CHARDONNAY WINE COMPLEXITY AND PREFERENCE

Wine complexity is considered a multidimensional yet equivocal sensory percept. This project uncovered sensory attributes Australian Chardonnay wine consumers associate with Chardonnay wine complexity
and correlations between expert and consumer perceived wine complexity and preference. A
wine consumer test examined 6 Australian Chardonnay wines of three complexity levels designated low (LC1&2), medium (MC1&2), and high (HC1&2) by an expert panel (n = 8) using a benchtop sensory task. Consumers (n = 81) rated their perceived liking using a 9-point hedonic scale; wine complexity with a 5-point scale anchored “low”, “low-medium”, “medium”, “medium-high”, and “high” and lastly, profiled the wines using Rate-All-That-Apply (RATA). Psychographic segmentation with the Fine Wine Instrument
(FWI) generated three segments; Wine Enthusiasts (WE n=29), Aspirants (ASP n=40) and No- Frills (NF n=12).

Comparison of imputation methods in long and varied phenological series. Application to the Conegliano dataset, including observations from 1964 over 400 grape varieties

A large varietal collection including over 1700 varieties was maintained in Conegliano, ITA, since the 1950s. Phenological data on a subset of 400 grape varieties including wine grapes, table grapes, and raisins were acquired at bud break, flowering, veraison, and ripening since 1964. Despite the efforts in maintaining and acquiring data over such an extensive collection, the data set has varying degrees of missing cases depending on the variety and the year. This is ubiquitous in phenology datasets with significant size and length. In this work, we evaluated four state-of-the-art methods to estimate missing values in this phenological series: k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (mice), MissForest, and Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series (BRITS). For each phenological stage, we evaluated the performance of the methods in two ways. 1) On the full dataset, we randomly hold-out 10% of the true values for use as a test set and repeated the process 1000 times (Monte Carlo cross-validation). 2) On a reduced and almost complete subset of varieties, we varied the percentage of missing values from 10% to 70% by random deletion. In all cases, we evaluated the performance on the original values using normalized root mean squared error. For the full dataset we also obtained performance statistics by variety and by year. MissForest provided average errors of 17% (3 days) at budbreak, 14% (4 days) at flowering, 14.5% (7 days) at veraison, and 17% (3 days) at maturity. We completed the imputations of the Conegliano dataset, one of the world’s most extensive and varied phenological time series and a steppingstone for future climate change studies in grapes. The dataset is now ready for further analysis, and a rigorous evaluation of imputation errors is included.

Ripening characterization and modelling of Listan negro grape in Spain using a regression analysis

The professional winegrower usually selects the harvest date considering several elements, such as the vine stem and berry colour, the flavour, appearance and grain elasticity. Nowadays these elements have turned old fashioned.

FERMENTATION POTENTIAL OF INDIGENOUS NON-SACCHAROMYCES YEASTS ISOLATED FROM MARAŠTINA GRAPES OF CROATIAN VINEYARDS

The interest in indigenous non-Saccharomyces yeast for use in wine production has increased in recent years because they contribute to the complex character of the wine. The aim of this work was to investigate the fermentation products of ten indigenous strains selected from a collection of native yeasts established at the Institute for Adriatic Crops and Karst Reclamation in 2021, previously isolated from Croatian Maraština grapes, belonging to Hypopichia pseudoburtonii, Metschnikowia pulcherrima, Metschnikowia sinensis, Metschnikowia chrysoperlae, Lachancea thermotolerans, Pichia kluyveri, Hanseniaspora uvarum, Hanseniaspora guillermondii, Hanseniaspora pseudoguillermondii, and Starmerella apicola species, and compare it with commercial non-Saccharomyces and Saccharomyces strains.

What strategies do wine firms adopt to integrate CSR into their activities? An analysis among Italian wineries

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), as defined by the European Commission, is a strategic framework through which companies integrate social, environmental, and economic sustainability into their operations (European Commission, 2001).