GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study – A crucial issue associated with the long-term impact of climate change in viticulture concerns the capacity of resilience of the typical varieties currently cultivated in traditional areas. Indeed, regions that are currently characterized by optimal climatic conditions can cease to be so in the future. At the same time, new premium wine production regions may arise north of 50oN. Both these threats and opportunities are based on the assessment of a very likely gradual temperature increase along the 21st century, resulting from the ensemble mean of the state-of-the-art climate projections. Such an assessment is orienting decision-makers and stakeholders to rethink the grapevine cultivation zoning, prefiguring, for each variety, a shift at higher latitudes and/or at higher altitudes areas. However, model uncertainty is very large over Europe, as it is associated with the fate of the of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection, which is simulated to collapse in a few climate models, producing single or multiple abrupt temperature drop over the North Atlantic. These “cold waves” strongly influence the temperature evolution over Europe, yet are ruled out in a multi-model ensemble analysis, since hidden by the procedure of averaging. Here, we isolate and investigate the implications that such large decadal-scale temperature variations potentially have for viticulture over Europe.

Material and methods – Our methodology consists in coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-44 CORDEX temperature projections with a hierarchy of phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. In particular, we use a set of 7 different climate models – one of which, the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, exhibits a SPG convection collapse – and 3 different phenological models, namely (i) a linear non-sequential, (ii) a linear sequential and (iii) a non-linear sequential model.

Results – The general increase of temperature over Europe projected by all the climate models over the 21st century leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine. This warming trend makes climate conditions adequate for high-quality wine production in some regions that are currently not. However, projections from CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 show that this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by cold waves lasting several years over most of Europe, abruptly pushing the climate back to conditions that are very similar to the present. By defining the climatic suitability for premium wine production as those conditions satisfying the temperature requirements for the grapevine ripening to fall within a specific period of the year, we report a loss of suitability during the cold wave events in most of those regions that became favourable due to the 21st century gradual warming. Abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic, although simulated by only a few climate models, has been shown to be physically plausible in the context of climate change. Our findings therefore disclose that varietal northward shift may be not the most appropriate strategy if applied over those regions strongly hit by the cold waves, and so provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

DOI:

Publication date: March 11, 2024

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Poster

Authors

Giovanni SGUBIN1, Didier SWINGEDOUW1, Iñaki García de CORTÁZAR-ATAURI2, Nathalie OLLAT3, Cornelis van LEEUWEN3

1 Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) -Universitè de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
2 AGROCLIM – Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Avignon, France
EGFV, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Univ. Bordeaux, 33883 Villenave d’Ornon, France

Contact the author

Keywords

Climate Change, Grapevine Phenology, Climatic suitability, Decadal-scale Cold Waves

Tags

GiESCO | GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Modelling vine water stress during a critical period and potential yield reduction rate in European wine regions: a retrospective analysis

Most European vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where seasonal water deficit has become increasingly important. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is seldomly thoroughly evaluated. Therefore, we aim to quantify the flowering-veraison water stress levels using Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) over 1986–2015 for important European wine regions, and to assess the respective potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR). Additionally, we also investigate whether an advanced flowering-veraison phase may help alleviating the water stress with improved yield. A process-based grapevine model STICS is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for flowering and veraison stages using observed data at 38 locations with 10 different grapevine varieties. Subsequently, the model is being implemented at the regional level, considering site-specific calibration results and gridded climate and soil datasets. The findings suggest wine regions with stronger flowering-veraison CWSI tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI<0.5) and a negligible-to-moderate YLR (<30%), whereas the latter possesses severe-to-extreme CWSI (>0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. An advanced flowering-veraison phase may have benefited from cooler temperatures and a higher fraction of spring precipitation in wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, resulting in alleviated CWSI and moderate reductions of YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent alleviations of YLR are also found, possibly because of shifted phase towards a cooler growing season with reduced evaporative demands. Overall, such a retrospective analysis might provide new insights towards better management of seasonal water deficit for conventionally vulnerable Mediterranean wine regions, but also for relatively cooler and wetter Central European regions.

The modification of cultural practices in grapevine cv. Syrah, does it modify the characteristics of the musts?

The work shows the results of a year of experimentation (2020) in a Syrah variety vineyard in La Roda (Castilla-La Mancha, Spain). The trial approach was on a randomized block design with two factors: Irrigation (I) and Pruning (P).
Irrigation schedules were adjusted to apply amounts close to 1,500 m3/ha. With this provision, 2 different irrigation treatments were proposed: I1) Start of irrigation from pea-sized grape to post-harvest (providing at least 20 % of the total amount of irrigation water to be provided post-harvest); I2) Start of irrigation from pea-sized grape to harvest (usual irrigation practice in the study area). Pruning was proposed with two treatments, one at the end of January (P1), which is pruning on a conventional date; and P2) pruning carried out at the beginning of budding. In total, 4 repetitions were designed with 4 elementary plots, each one of them representing one of the proposed treatments (I1P1; I1P2; I2P1; I2P2). In total, 16 plots were worked on and each elementary plot consisted of 30 strains, distributed in 3 lines.
The productive response was evaluated with the yield results of the harvest harvested at 23 ºBrix. The qualitative response was measured in the musts through the indices of technological (acidity, pH and potassium) and phenolic maturity and aromatic compounds in free and glycosylated fractions. The treatments tested had, in general, an effect on the different variables analyzed.

Effect of one-year cover crop and arbuscular mycorrhiza inocululation in the microbial soil community of a vineyard

The microbial composition of the soil is an important factor to consider in viticulture, since its influence on the “terroir” and on the organoleptic properties of the wine have been demonstrated. Different agronomic techniques have the potential to modify the composition and functionality of the soil microbial community. Maintaining green covers is known to increase soil microbial diversity. The direct application of inoculum of beneficial microorganisms to the soil has also been used to increase their abundance. However, the environmental conditions of each site seem to have a determining weight in the result of these practices. In this study, we compared the effect on the microbial community of a cover crop with legumes in autumn and the inoculation of grapevines with commercial inoculum bases on Rhizophagus irregularis and Funeliformis mosseae in the previous spring. The study has been carried out in a vineyard in Binissalem, Mallorca, Spain. After applying the treatments, we will analyze the soil microbial communities using the data obtained from Illumina amplification of soil DNA from the 16S and ITS regions to analyze bacteria and fungi community, respectively. In addition, we will record the physicochemical characteristics of the soil at each sampling point. The result showed that agronomic management, in the short term, has less influence than soil characteristics on the composition of the soil microbiome. With these results, we can conclude that in a vineyard, agricultural techniques should focus on improving the characteristics of the soil to improve the biodiversity of the soil microbiota.

Inhibition of Oenococcus oeni during alcoholic fermentation by a selected Lactiplantibacillus plantarum strain

The use of selected cultures of the species Lactiplantibacillus plantarum in Oenology has grown in prominence in recent years. While initial applications of this species centred very much around malolactic fermentation (MLF), there is strong evidence to show that certain strains can be harnessed for their bio-protective effects. Unwanted spontaneous MLF during alcoholic fermentation (AF), driven by rogue Oenococcus oeni, is a winemaking deviation that is very difficult to manage when it occurs. This work set out to determine the efficacy of one particular strain of Lactiplantibacillus plantarum(Viniflora® NoVA™ Protect), against this problem in Cabernet Sauvignon must. The work was carried out at commercial scale and in a winery environment and compared the bio-protective culture with the more traditional approach of reducing must pH by the addition of tartaric acid. The combination of both was also investigated. The concentration of both Oenococcus oeni and Lactiplantibacillus plantarum was determined using qPCR. The adventitious Oenococcus oeni showed the most growth during AF in the control wine, whereas in the wines treated with Lactiplantibacillus plantarum a bacteriostatic effect against this species was observed. This effect was comparable to the wines treated with tartaric acid. This has particular commercial relevance for controlling the flora in musts with high pH, or when the addition of tartaric acid is either not permitted or is prohibitive for other reasons.

Protected Designation of Origin (D.P.O.) Valdepeñas: classification and map of soils

The objective of the work described here is the elaboration of a map of the different types of vineyard soils that to guide the famers in the choice of the most productive vine rootstocks and varieties. 90 vineyard soils profiles were analysed in the entire territory of the Origen Denominations of Valdepeñas. The sampling was carried out in 2018 (June to October) by making a sampling grid, followed by photointerpretation and control in the field. The studied soils can be grouped into 9 different soil types (according to FAO 2006 classification): Leptosols, Regosols, Fluvisols, Gleysols, Cambisols, Calcisols, Luvisols and Anthrosols. A map showing the soil distribution with different type of soils has been made with the ArcGIS program. Regarding to the choice of rootstock, Calcisoles are soils with a high active limestone content, so the rootstocks used in these soils must be resistant to this parameter; Luvisols are deep soils with high clay content, so they will support vigorous rootstocks. Because the cartographic units are composed of two or more subgroups, with are associated in variable proportions, 9 different soil associations have been established; Unit 1: Leptosols, Cambisols and Luvisols (80%, 15% and 5% respectively); Unit 2: Cambisols with Regosols and Luvisols (40%, 30% and 30% respectively); Unit 3: Cambisols and Gleysols with Regosols (40%, 40% and 20% respectively); Unit 4: Regosols with Cambisols, Leptosols and Calcisols (40%, 30%, 15% and 15% respectively); Unit 5: Cambisols, Leptosols, Calcisols and Regosols (25% each of them); Unit 6: Luvisols with Cambisol and Calcisols (80%, 10% and 10% respectively); Unit 7: Luvisols and Calcisols with Cambisols (40%, 40% and 20% respectively); Unit 8: Calcisols with, Cambisols and Luvisols (80%, 10% and 10% respectively); Unit 9: Anthrosols. These study allow to elaborate the first map of vineyard soils of this Protected Designation of Origin in Castilla-La Mancha.