GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study – A crucial issue associated with the long-term impact of climate change in viticulture concerns the capacity of resilience of the typical varieties currently cultivated in traditional areas. Indeed, regions that are currently characterized by optimal climatic conditions can cease to be so in the future. At the same time, new premium wine production regions may arise north of 50oN. Both these threats and opportunities are based on the assessment of a very likely gradual temperature increase along the 21st century, resulting from the ensemble mean of the state-of-the-art climate projections. Such an assessment is orienting decision-makers and stakeholders to rethink the grapevine cultivation zoning, prefiguring, for each variety, a shift at higher latitudes and/or at higher altitudes areas. However, model uncertainty is very large over Europe, as it is associated with the fate of the of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection, which is simulated to collapse in a few climate models, producing single or multiple abrupt temperature drop over the North Atlantic. These “cold waves” strongly influence the temperature evolution over Europe, yet are ruled out in a multi-model ensemble analysis, since hidden by the procedure of averaging. Here, we isolate and investigate the implications that such large decadal-scale temperature variations potentially have for viticulture over Europe.

Material and methods – Our methodology consists in coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-44 CORDEX temperature projections with a hierarchy of phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. In particular, we use a set of 7 different climate models – one of which, the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, exhibits a SPG convection collapse – and 3 different phenological models, namely (i) a linear non-sequential, (ii) a linear sequential and (iii) a non-linear sequential model.

Results – The general increase of temperature over Europe projected by all the climate models over the 21st century leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine. This warming trend makes climate conditions adequate for high-quality wine production in some regions that are currently not. However, projections from CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 show that this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by cold waves lasting several years over most of Europe, abruptly pushing the climate back to conditions that are very similar to the present. By defining the climatic suitability for premium wine production as those conditions satisfying the temperature requirements for the grapevine ripening to fall within a specific period of the year, we report a loss of suitability during the cold wave events in most of those regions that became favourable due to the 21st century gradual warming. Abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic, although simulated by only a few climate models, has been shown to be physically plausible in the context of climate change. Our findings therefore disclose that varietal northward shift may be not the most appropriate strategy if applied over those regions strongly hit by the cold waves, and so provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

DOI:

Publication date: March 11, 2024

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Poster

Authors

Giovanni SGUBIN1, Didier SWINGEDOUW1, Iñaki García de CORTÁZAR-ATAURI2, Nathalie OLLAT3, Cornelis van LEEUWEN3

1 Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) -Universitè de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
2 AGROCLIM – Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Avignon, France
EGFV, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Univ. Bordeaux, 33883 Villenave d’Ornon, France

Contact the author

Keywords

Climate Change, Grapevine Phenology, Climatic suitability, Decadal-scale Cold Waves

Tags

GiESCO | GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Revealing the Barossa zone sub-divisions through sensory and chemical analysis of Shiraz wine

The Barossa zone is arguably one of the most well-recognised wine producing regions in Australia and internationally; known mainly for the production of its distinct Shiraz wines. However, within the broad Barossa geographical delimitation, a variation in terroir can be perceived and is expressed as sensorial and chemical profile differences between wines. This study aimed to explore the sub-division classification across the Barossa region using chemical and sensory measurements. Shiraz grapes from 4 different vintages and different vineyards across the Barossa (2018, n = 69; 2019, n = 72; 2020, n = 79; 2021, n = 64) were harvested and made using a standardised small lot winemaking procedure. The analysis involved a sensory descriptive analysis with a highly trained panel and chemical measurement including basic chemistry (e.g. pH, TA, alcohol content, total SO2), phenolic composition, volatile compounds, metals, proline, and polysaccharides. The datasets were combined and analysed through an unsupervised, clustering analysis. Firstly, each vintage was considered separately to investigate any vintage to vintage variation. The datasets were then combined and analysed as a whole. The number of sub-divisions based on the measurements were identified and characterised with their sensory and chemical profile and some consistencies were seen between the vintages. Preliminary analysis of the sensory results showed that in most vintages, two major groups could be identified characterised with one group showing a fruit-forward profile and another displaying savoury and cooked vegetables characters. The exploration of distinct profiles arising from the Barossa wine producing region will provide producers with valuable information about the regional potential of their wine assisting with tools to increase their target market and reputation. This study will also provide a robust and comprehensive basis to determine the distinctive terroir characteristics which exist within the Barossa wine producing region.

Ecophysiological performance of Vitis rootstocks under water stress

The use of rootstocks tolerant to soil water deficit is an interesting strategy to cope with limited water availability. Currently, several nurseries are breeding new genotypes, but the physiological basis of its responses under water stress are largely unknown. To this end, an ecophysiological assessment of the conventional 110-Richter (110R) and SO4, and the new M1 and M4 rootstocks was carried out in potted ungrafted plants. During one season, these Vitis genotypes were grown under greenhouse conditions and subjected to two water regimes, well-watered and water deficit. Water potentials of plants under water deficit down to < -1.4 MPa, and net photosynthesis (AN) <5 μmol m-2 s-1 did not cause leaf oxidative stress damage compared to well-watered conditions in any of the genotypes. The antioxidant capacity was sufficient to neutralize the mild oxidative stress suffered. Under both treatments, gravimetric differences in daily water use were observed among genotypes, leading to differences in the biomass of root, shoot and leaf. Under well-watered conditions, SO4 and 110R were the most vigorous and M1 and M4 the least. However, under water stress, SO4 exhibited the greatest reduction in biomass while M4 showed the lowest. Remarkably, under these conditions, SO4 reached the least negative stem water potential (Ψstem), while M1 reduced stomatal conductance (gs) and AN the most. In addition, SO4 and M1 genotypes also showed the highest and lowest hydraulic conductance values, respectively. Our results suggest that there are differences in water use regulation among genotypes, not only attributed to differences in stomatal regulation or intrinsic water use efficiency at the leaf level. Therefore, because no differences in canopy-to-root ratio were achieved, it is hypothesized that xylem vessel anatomical differences may be driving the reported differences among rootstocks performance. Results demonstrate that each Vitis rootstock differs in its ecophysiological responses under water stress.

Climate change impacts on Douro Region viticulture and adaptation measures

Climate has a significant impact in the success of any agricultural system, with a direct influence on the crops suitability to a given region, interfering on yield and quality and also with the economic sustainability of the productive activity. In the Douro Demarcated Region (RDD), as in most regions of the Mediterranean climate, the scarce precipitation (33% has less than 600 mm per year), and your high variability, associated with high rates of evapotranspiration during the summer, is usually one of the fundamental factors that limit the grapevine development, as well as the production and quality of the harvest. Thus, facing the scenario in temperature changes for the next decades (1.5-2.5°C) and confirming the predictions of precipitation decreases and/or great variability in the occurrence of heat waves and intense rainfall, the consequences for slope stability in mountain viticulture and sustainability of all operations involved, are risks to be taken into account. In this way, a deepest and sustained knowledge regarding the adaptation measures to adverse environmental conditions is of a crucial importance, enabling a more efficient adaptation of plant growth conditions and the optimization of production and quality of the grapevines. The development of this work, carried out in two commercial vineyards, one located in Soutelo do Douro, São João da Pesqueira, Cima Corgo sub-region, and another located in Numão, Vila Nova de Foz Côa, Douro Superior sub-region, it seeks to establish a relationship between climatic elements and physiological, productive and qualitative parameters, as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation measures, including different types of deficit irrigation (2002-2019) and the application of shading nets (2019-2020) in the physiological, viticultural and oenological behavior in the Touriga Nacional and Moscatel Galego Branco varieties, respectively. The results showed that the application of deficit irrigation allowed to significantly reduce the impact of the adverse weather conditions at key moments in the development of the grapevine, particularly in the period immediately before veráison and maturation, reducing the negative effects on the physiological processes and productivity, without compromise the must quality parameters. On the other hand, the application of shading nets significantly reduced de leaves temperature, allowing to increase the water potential, stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate of grapes, which was reflected in the yield increase in the 2nd year of the study. For the maturation indicators, higher levels of total acidity, malic acid and assimilable nitrogen were obtained. The last measure presents a huge potential, being essential to carry out more years of trials to obtain stronger conclusions in terms of production parameters, but also in characteristics as important as the grape ripening components and the organoleptic characteristics of wines.

Grapevine sugar concentration model in the Douro Superior, Portugal

Increasingly warm and dry climate conditions are challenging the viticulture and winemaking sector. Digital technologies and crop modelling bear the promise to provide practical answers to those challenges. As viticultural activities strongly depend on harvest date, its early prediction is particularly important, since the success of winemaking practices largely depends upon this key event, which should be based on an accurate and advanced plan of the annual cycle. Herein, we demonstrate the creation of modelling tools to assess grape ripeness, through sugar concentration monitoring. The study area, the Portuguese Côa valley wine region, represents an important terroir in the “Douro Superior” subregion. Two varieties (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) grown in five locations across the Côa Region were considered. Sugar accumulation in grapes, with concentrations between 170 and 230 g l-1, was used from 2014 to 2020 as an indicator of technological maturity conditioned by meteorological factors. The climatic time series were retrieved from the EU Copernicus Service, while sugar data were collected by a non-profit organization, ADVID, and by Sogrape, a leading wine company. The software for calibrating and validating this model framework was the Phenology Modeling Platform (PMP), version 5.5, using Sigmoid and growing degree-day (GDD) models for predictions. The performance was assessed through two metrics: Roots Mean Square Error (RMSE) and efficiency coefficient (EFF), while validation was undertaken using leave-one-out cross-validation. Our findings demonstrate that sugar content is mainly dependent on temperature and air humidity. The models achieved a performance of 0.65

Impact of yeast derivatives to increase the phenolic maturity and aroma intensity of wine

Using viticultural and enological techniques to increase aromatics in white wine is a prized yet challenging technique for commercial wine producers. Equally difficult are challenges encountered in hastening phenolic maturity and thereby increasing color intensity in red wines. The ability to alter organoleptic and visual properties of wines plays a decisive role in vintages in which grapes are not able to reach full maturity, which is seen increasingly more often as a result of climate change. A new, yeast-based product on the viticultural market may give the opportunity to increase sensory properties of finished wines. Manufacturer packaging claims these yeast derivatives intensify wine aromas of white grape varieties, as well as improve phenolic ripeness of red varieties, but the effects of this application have been little researched until now. The current study applied the yeast derivative, according to the manufacture’s instructions, to the leaves of both neutral and aromatic white wine varieties, as well as on structured red wine varieties. Chemical parameters and volatile aromatics were analyzed in grape musts and finished wines, and all wines were subjected to sensory analysis by a tasting panel. Collective results of all analyses showed that the application of the yeast derivative in the vineyard showed no effect across all varieties examined, and did not intensify white wine aromatics, nor improve phenolic ripeness and color intensity in red wine.