GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study – A crucial issue associated with the long-term impact of climate change in viticulture concerns the capacity of resilience of the typical varieties currently cultivated in traditional areas. Indeed, regions that are currently characterized by optimal climatic conditions can cease to be so in the future. At the same time, new premium wine production regions may arise north of 50oN. Both these threats and opportunities are based on the assessment of a very likely gradual temperature increase along the 21st century, resulting from the ensemble mean of the state-of-the-art climate projections. Such an assessment is orienting decision-makers and stakeholders to rethink the grapevine cultivation zoning, prefiguring, for each variety, a shift at higher latitudes and/or at higher altitudes areas. However, model uncertainty is very large over Europe, as it is associated with the fate of the of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection, which is simulated to collapse in a few climate models, producing single or multiple abrupt temperature drop over the North Atlantic. These “cold waves” strongly influence the temperature evolution over Europe, yet are ruled out in a multi-model ensemble analysis, since hidden by the procedure of averaging. Here, we isolate and investigate the implications that such large decadal-scale temperature variations potentially have for viticulture over Europe.

Material and methods – Our methodology consists in coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-44 CORDEX temperature projections with a hierarchy of phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. In particular, we use a set of 7 different climate models – one of which, the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, exhibits a SPG convection collapse – and 3 different phenological models, namely (i) a linear non-sequential, (ii) a linear sequential and (iii) a non-linear sequential model.

Results – The general increase of temperature over Europe projected by all the climate models over the 21st century leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine. This warming trend makes climate conditions adequate for high-quality wine production in some regions that are currently not. However, projections from CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 show that this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by cold waves lasting several years over most of Europe, abruptly pushing the climate back to conditions that are very similar to the present. By defining the climatic suitability for premium wine production as those conditions satisfying the temperature requirements for the grapevine ripening to fall within a specific period of the year, we report a loss of suitability during the cold wave events in most of those regions that became favourable due to the 21st century gradual warming. Abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic, although simulated by only a few climate models, has been shown to be physically plausible in the context of climate change. Our findings therefore disclose that varietal northward shift may be not the most appropriate strategy if applied over those regions strongly hit by the cold waves, and so provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

DOI:

Publication date: March 11, 2024

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Poster

Authors

Giovanni SGUBIN1, Didier SWINGEDOUW1, Iñaki García de CORTÁZAR-ATAURI2, Nathalie OLLAT3, Cornelis van LEEUWEN3

1 Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) -Universitè de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
2 AGROCLIM – Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Avignon, France
EGFV, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Univ. Bordeaux, 33883 Villenave d’Ornon, France

Contact the author

Keywords

Climate Change, Grapevine Phenology, Climatic suitability, Decadal-scale Cold Waves

Tags

GiESCO | GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Impact of geographical location on the phenolic profile of minority varieties grown in Spain. II: red grapevines

Because terroir and cultivar are drivers of wine quality, is essential to investigate theirs effects on polyphenolic profile before promoting the implantation of a red minority variety in a specific area. This work, included in MINORVIN project, focuses in the polyphenolic profile of 7 red grapevines minority varieties of Vitis vinifera L. (Morate, Sanguina, Santafe, Terriza Tinta Jeromo Tortozona Tinta) and Tempranillo) from six typical viticulture Spanish areas: Aragón (A1), Cataluña (A2), Castilla la Mancha (A3), Castilla –León (A4), Madrid (A5) and Navarra (A6) of 2020 season. Polyphenolic substances were extracted from grapes. 35 compounds were identified and quantified (mg subtance/kg fresh berry) by HPLC and grouped in anthocyanins (ANT) flavanols (FLAVA), flavonols (FLAVO), hydroxycinnamic (AH), benzoic (BA) acids and stilbenes (ST). Antioxidant activity (AA, mmol TE /g fresh berry) was determined by DPPH method. The results were submitted to a two-way ANOVA to investigate the influence of variety, area and their interaction for each polyphenolic family and cluster analysis was used to construct hierarchical dendrograms, searching the natural groupings among the samples. Sanguina (A3) had the most of total polyphenols while Tempranillo (A5) those of ANT. Sanguina (A2) and (A3) reached the highest values of FLAVO, FLAVA and AA. These two last samples had also the maximum of AA. The effect cultivar and area were significant for all polyphenolic families analyzed. A high variability due to variety (>50%) was observed in FLAVA and the maximum value of variability due to growing area was detected in AA (86.41%), ANT and FLAVO (51%); the interaction variety*zone was significant only for ANT, FLAVO, EST and AA. Finally, dendrograms presented five cluster: i) Sanguina (A2); ii) Sanguina (A3); iii) Tempranillo (A5); iv) Tempranillo (A3); Terriza (A3,A5), Morate (A5,A6); v) Santafé (A1,A6); Tortozona tinta (A1,A3,A6); Tinta Jeromo (A3,A4).

Evolution of the amino acids content through grape ripening: Effect of foliar application of methyl jasmonate with or without urea

The parameters that determine the grape quality, and therefore the optimal harvest time, suffer variations during berry ripening, related to climate change, with the widely known problem of the gap between technological and phenolic maturities. However, there are few studies about its incidence on grape nitrogen composition. For this reason, the use of an elicitor, methyl jasmonate (MeJ), alone or with urea, is proposed as a tool to reduce climatic decoupling, allowing to establish the harvest time in order to achieve the optimum grape quality. The aim was to study the effect of MeJ and MeJ+Urea foliar applications on the evolution of Tempranillo amino acids content throughout the grape maturation. Three treatments were foliarly applied, at veraison and 7 days later: control (water), MeJ (10 mM) and MeJ+Urea (10 mM+6 kg N/ha). Grape samples were taken at five stages of maturation: day before the first and second applications, 15 days after the second application (pre-harvest), harvest day, and 15 days after harvest (post-harvest). The amino acids analysis of the samples was carried out by HPLC. Results showed that the evolution of amino acids was similar regardless of the treatment; however, foliar applications influenced the nitrogen compounds content, i.e., there was no qualitative effect but quantitative one. Most of the amino acids reached their maximum concentration in pre-harvest, being higher in grapes from the treatments than in the control. In general, no differences in grape amino acids content were observed between MeJ and MeJ+Urea treatments. Foliar applications with MeJ and MeJ+Urea enhanced the grape amino acids content, without affecting their profile, helping to optimize their quality and allowing to establish a more complete grape ripening standard. Therefore, MeJ and MeJ+Urea foliar applications can be a simple agronomic practice, which has shown promising results in order to enhance the grape quality.

Climate projections over France wine-growing region and its potential impact on phenology

Climate change represents a major challenge for the French wine industry. Climatic conditions in French vineyards have already changed and will continue to evolve. One of the notable effects on grapevine is the advancing growing season. The aim of this study is to characterise the evolution of agroclimatic indicators (Huglin index, number of hot days, mean temperature, cumulative rainfall and number of rainy days during the growing season) at French wine-growing regions scale between 1980 and 2019 using gridded data (8 km resolution, SAFRAN) and for the middle of the 21th century (2046-2065) with 21 GCMs statistically debiased and downscaled at 8 km. A set of three phenological models were used to simulate the budburst (BRIN, Smoothed-Utah), flowering, veraison and theoretical maturity (GFV and GSR) stages for two grape varieties (Chardonnay and Cabernet-Sauvignon) over the whole period studied. All the French wine-growing regions show an increase in both temperatures during the growing season and Huglin index. This increase is accompanied by an advance in the simulated flowering (+3 to +9 days), veraison (+6 to +13 days) and theoretical maturity (+6 to +16 days) stages, which are more noticeable in the north-eastern part of France. The climate projections unanimously show, for all the GCMs considered, a clear increase in the Huglin index (+662 to 771 °C.days compared to the 1980-1999 period) and in the number of hot days (+5.6 to 22.6 days) in all the wine regions studied. Regarding rainfall, the expected evolution remains very uncertain due to the heterogeneity of the climates simulated by the 21 models. Only 4 regions out of 21 have a significant decrease in the number of rainy days during the growing season. The two budburst models show a strong divergence in the evolution of this stage with an average difference of 18 days between the two models on all grapevine regions. The theoretical maturity is the most impacted stage with a potential advance between 40 and 23 days according to wine-growing regions.

Effect of one-year cover crop and arbuscular mycorrhiza inocululation in the microbial soil community of a vineyard

The microbial composition of the soil is an important factor to consider in viticulture, since its influence on the “terroir” and on the organoleptic properties of the wine have been demonstrated. Different agronomic techniques have the potential to modify the composition and functionality of the soil microbial community. Maintaining green covers is known to increase soil microbial diversity. The direct application of inoculum of beneficial microorganisms to the soil has also been used to increase their abundance. However, the environmental conditions of each site seem to have a determining weight in the result of these practices. In this study, we compared the effect on the microbial community of a cover crop with legumes in autumn and the inoculation of grapevines with commercial inoculum bases on Rhizophagus irregularis and Funeliformis mosseae in the previous spring. The study has been carried out in a vineyard in Binissalem, Mallorca, Spain. After applying the treatments, we will analyze the soil microbial communities using the data obtained from Illumina amplification of soil DNA from the 16S and ITS regions to analyze bacteria and fungi community, respectively. In addition, we will record the physicochemical characteristics of the soil at each sampling point. The result showed that agronomic management, in the short term, has less influence than soil characteristics on the composition of the soil microbiome. With these results, we can conclude that in a vineyard, agricultural techniques should focus on improving the characteristics of the soil to improve the biodiversity of the soil microbiota.

Diagnosis of soil quality and evaluation of the impact of viticultural practices on soil biodiversity in a vineyard in southwestern France

Viticulture is facing two major changes – climate change and agroecological transition. In both cases, soil quality is seen as a lever to move towards a more sustainable viticulture. However, soil biological quality is little considered in the implementation of viticultural practices. Gascogn’Innov (2017-2022) is an Operational Group funded by the European Innovation Partnership for Agriculture. As such, it brings together winegrowers from the south-west of France, scientists, advisors and technicians, around a project focused on viticultural soil biological functioning and the design of technical routes more respectful toward soil heritage. To achieve this, the project aims to acquire references on the impact of viticultural practices on soil biology from a dynamic way, and to test a methodology to integrate information provided by the soil bioindicators to manage farming systems. A set of indicators of soil biological quality are evaluated in the project: microorganisms (bacteria and fungi abundance and diversity), fauna (abundance and diversity of nematodes and earthworms), physico-chemical characteristics, soil structure assessment and degradation rate of organic matter. Based on a network of 13 plots that have been subject to an initial diagnosis in 2017, several agronomical practices to restore soil fertility are experimented to redesign the cropping system (for instance plant cover, organic matter inputs, reduction of herbicides, mineral fertilizers). System redesign was made in collaboration by winegrowers and an interdisciplinary group of experts (agronomists, biologists). Several indicators are measured on vine and soil at each vintage to assess vine health and productivity. At the end of the project (2021), a final diagnosis was carried out. Gascogn’Innov allowed to create a regional database on the quality of wine-growing soils, which permitted to evaluate the effect of practices according to soil types. Especially, decreasing the intensity of tillage and increasing the duration and diversity of grass coverage tends to increase the abundance of all the organisms studied. This project confirmed the value of soil biological quality indicators to drive the sustainability of practices, but also highlighted the key-role of expertise, in both agronomy and soil biology, to help winegrowers understand and appropriate their soil quality diagnoses.