GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

The impact of decadal cold waves over Europe on future viticultural practices

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study – A crucial issue associated with the long-term impact of climate change in viticulture concerns the capacity of resilience of the typical varieties currently cultivated in traditional areas. Indeed, regions that are currently characterized by optimal climatic conditions can cease to be so in the future. At the same time, new premium wine production regions may arise north of 50oN. Both these threats and opportunities are based on the assessment of a very likely gradual temperature increase along the 21st century, resulting from the ensemble mean of the state-of-the-art climate projections. Such an assessment is orienting decision-makers and stakeholders to rethink the grapevine cultivation zoning, prefiguring, for each variety, a shift at higher latitudes and/or at higher altitudes areas. However, model uncertainty is very large over Europe, as it is associated with the fate of the of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection, which is simulated to collapse in a few climate models, producing single or multiple abrupt temperature drop over the North Atlantic. These “cold waves” strongly influence the temperature evolution over Europe, yet are ruled out in a multi-model ensemble analysis, since hidden by the procedure of averaging. Here, we isolate and investigate the implications that such large decadal-scale temperature variations potentially have for viticulture over Europe.

Material and methods – Our methodology consists in coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-44 CORDEX temperature projections with a hierarchy of phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. In particular, we use a set of 7 different climate models – one of which, the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, exhibits a SPG convection collapse – and 3 different phenological models, namely (i) a linear non-sequential, (ii) a linear sequential and (iii) a non-linear sequential model.

Results – The general increase of temperature over Europe projected by all the climate models over the 21st century leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine. This warming trend makes climate conditions adequate for high-quality wine production in some regions that are currently not. However, projections from CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 show that this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by cold waves lasting several years over most of Europe, abruptly pushing the climate back to conditions that are very similar to the present. By defining the climatic suitability for premium wine production as those conditions satisfying the temperature requirements for the grapevine ripening to fall within a specific period of the year, we report a loss of suitability during the cold wave events in most of those regions that became favourable due to the 21st century gradual warming. Abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic, although simulated by only a few climate models, has been shown to be physically plausible in the context of climate change. Our findings therefore disclose that varietal northward shift may be not the most appropriate strategy if applied over those regions strongly hit by the cold waves, and so provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

DOI:

Publication date: March 11, 2024

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Poster

Authors

Giovanni SGUBIN1, Didier SWINGEDOUW1, Iñaki García de CORTÁZAR-ATAURI2, Nathalie OLLAT3, Cornelis van LEEUWEN3

1 Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) -Universitè de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
2 AGROCLIM – Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Avignon, France
EGFV, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Univ. Bordeaux, 33883 Villenave d’Ornon, France

Contact the author

Keywords

Climate Change, Grapevine Phenology, Climatic suitability, Decadal-scale Cold Waves

Tags

GiESCO | GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Effect of vigour and number of clusters on eonological parameters and metabolic profile of Cabernet Sauvignon red wines

Vegetative growth and yield are reported to affect grape and wine quality. They can be controlled through different techniques linked to vine management. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of vine vigour and number of clusters per vine on physicochemical composition and phenolic profile of red wines. The experiment was carried out during two vegetative cycles, with cv. Cabernet Sauvignon grafted onto Paulsen 1103. Three vine vigour were defined, according to shoot weight at previous harvests, being low, medium and high. Five treatments of number of clusters were used for each vigour, with 15, 22, 29, 36, and 45 clusters per vine. Grapes from all treatments were harvested in the same day from Brix and total acidity criteria. Thirty days after bottling, classical analyzes and phenolic compounds were performed. As results, different responses were obtained from each vintage. In 2020, a dry season from veraison to harvest, grapes and wines obtained from low vigour treatment and 45 clusters per vine was the highest in sugar and alcohol content respectively, while grapes and wines from high vigour and 15 clusters presented the lowest sugar and alcohol content. Total anthocyanins were higher in treatment with low vigour and 15 clusters, while the lowest amounts were found in low vigour with 45 clusters, as well as medium and high vigour with 36 clusters per vine. Total tannins were higher in high vigour with 22 clusters and medium vigour with 29 clusters, while were lower in low vigour with 36 clusters. In 2021, a wet season at harvest, responses were different, and great variations were observed between treatments. As conclusions, yield and vine vigour had strong influence on grape and wine quality, promoting different enological potentials on which can be indicated/used for aging strategies of red and even rosé wines.

Assessing the relationship between cordon strangulation, dieback, and fungal trunk disease symptom expression

Grapevine trunk diseases including Eutypa dieback are a major factor in the decline of vineyards and may lead to loss of productivity, reduced income, and premature reworking or replanting. Several studies have yielded results indicating that vines may be more likely to express symptoms of vascular disease if their health is already compromised by stress. In Australia and many other wine-growing regions it is a common practice for canes to be wrapped tightly around the cordon wire during the establishment of permanent cordon arms. It is likely that this practice may have a negative effect on health and longevity, as older cordons that have been trained in this manner often display signs of decay and dieback, with the wire often visibly embedded within the wood of the cordon. It is possible that adopting a training method which avoids constriction of the vasculature of the cordon may help to limit the onset of vascular disease symptom expression. A survey was conducted during the spring of two consecutive growing seasons on vineyards in South Australia displaying symptoms of Eutypa lata infection when symptomless shoots were 50–100 cm long. Vines were assessed as follows: (i) the proportion of cordon exhibiting dieback was rated using a 0–100% scale; (ii) the proportion of canopy exhibiting foliar symptoms of Eutypa dieback was rated using a 0–100% scale; (iii) the severity of strangulation was rated using a 0–4 point scale. Images were also taken of each vine for the purpose of measuring plant area index (PAI) using the VitiCanopy App. The goal of the survey was to determine if and to what extent any correlation exists between severity of strangulation and cordon dieback, in addition to Eutypa dieback foliar symptom expression.

Biodiversity in the vineyard agroecosystem: exploring systemic approaches

Biodiversity conservation and restoration are essential for guarantee the provision of ecosystem services associated to vineyard agroecosystem such as climate regulation trough carbon sequestration and control of pests and diseases. Most of published research dealing with the complexity of the vineyard agroecosystems emphasizes the necessity of innovative approaches, including the integration of information at different temporal and spatial scales and development of systemic analysis based on modelling. A biodiversity survey was conducted in the Franciacorta wine-growing area (Lombardy, Italy), one of the most important Italian wine-growing regions for sparkling wine production, considering a portion of the territory of 112 ha. The area was divided into several Environmental Units (EUs), defined as a whole vineyard or portion of vineyard homogenous in terms of four agronomic characteristics: planting year, planting density, cultivar, and training system. In each EU a set of compartments was identified and characterised by specific variables. The compartments are meteorology, morphology (altitude, slope, aspect, row orientation, and solar irradiance), ecological infrastructures and management. The landscape surrounding EU was also characterised in terms of land-use in a buffer zone of 500 m. For each component a specific methodology was identified and applied. Different statistical approaches were used to evaluate the method to integrate the information related to different compartments within the EU and related to the buffer zone. These approaches were also preliminarily evaluated for their ability to describe the contribution of biodiversity and landscape components to ecosystem services. This methodological exploration provides useful indication for the development of a fully systemic approach to structural and functional biodiversity in vineyard agroecosystems, contributing to promote a multifunctional perspective for the all wine-growing sector.

Current climate change in the Oplenac wine-growing district (Serbia)

Serbian autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka (for white wines) and Prokupac (for rosé and red wines) are the primary representatives of typical characteristics of wines and terroir of numerous wine-growing areas in Serbia. In the past, these varieties were the leading vine varieties, however, as the result of globalization of winemaking and the trend of consumption of wines from widely prevalent vine varieties, they were replaced by introduced international varieties. Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties are characterized by later time of grape ripening, and relative sensitivity to low temperatures. Climate conditions can be a restrictive factor for production of high-quality grapes and wine and for the spatial spreading of these varieties in hilly continental wine-growing areas.
This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of changes of main climate parameters, in particular, analysis of viticultural bioclimatic indices that were determined for the purposes of viticulture zoning of wine-growing areas in the period 1961-2010, and those same parameters determined for the current, that is, referential climate period (1988-2017). Results of the research, that is, analysis of climate changes indicate that the majority of examined climate parameters in the Oplenac wine-growing district improved from the perspective of Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties. These studies of climate conditions indicate that changes of analyzed climate parameters, that is, bioclimatic indices will be favorable for cultivation of varieties with later grape ripening times and those more sensitive to low temperatures, such as the autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka and Prokupac, therefore, it is recommended to producers to more actively plant vineyards with these varieties in the territory of the Oplenac wine-growing district.

Influence of climatic conditions on grape composition of Tempranillo in La Mancha DO (Spain)

The aim of this work was to analyze the variability in grape composition of the Tempranillo cultivar related to climatic conditions, in La Mancha Designation of Origin. Grape composition (sugar content, total acidity, pH, malic acid, and total and extractable anthocyanins) recorded during ripening, were analysed for the period 2000-2019. The weather conditions at daily time scale, recorded during the same period, were also evaluated. The relationships between grape parameters with climatic variables related to temperature and to water deficits, referring different periods between phenological events along the growing cycle, were evaluated using regression analysis. High variability in grape composition was observed in the period analysed. Total acidity varied between 3.7 and 7.3 gL-1 while malic acid varied between 1.2 and 4 gL-1. The extractable anthocyanins ranged between 526 and 972 mgL-1, and total anthocyanins ranged between 922 and 1388 mgL-1, being the lowest values recorded in the hottest year (2017). Total acidity decreased 0.77 gL-1 for an increase of 100 GDD, while malic acid decrease in 0.42 gL-1 for the same GDD increase, being the period between veraison and harvest the one that seemed to have higher influence on acidity. In addition, it was confirmed that increasing water deficits decreased acidity. Total and extractable anthocyanins increased in about 210 and 105 mgL-1, respectively, with an increase of 100 GDD from veraison to harvest, and the increase in water deficits favour the increase of anthocyanins, both total and extractable anthocyanins. Total and extractable anthocyanins concentration increased in 35 and 22 mgL-1 per an increase of 10 mm in the water deficit. These results can be of interest to understand the potential changes that grapes composition may suffer under future warmer climates.