How to develop strategies of adaptation to climate change based on a foresight exercise?

A fair and sustainable society, with a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy cannot be achieved without a workforce to support it.

The sensory characteristics of wine are a topic studied by several researchers over time, but it continues to be a current and challenging subject. These characteristics are fundamental for the consumer acceptability, which has increasingly aroused their interest to modulate them in line with current market trends and innovation demands. The wine physical-chemical and sensory properties depend on a wide set of factors: they begin to be designed in the vineyard and are later constructed during the various stages of winemaking. Afterwards, the wine is placed in bottles and stored or commercialized.

The ongoing climate change results in increasing mean air temperature, which is manifested by weather extremes or sudden changes between drought and local heavy rainfalls. These changing conditions are especially challenging for the established grapevine varieties growing under cool climate conditions due to an increased biotic infection pressure. Thus, the scope of most grapevine breeding programs is the selection of mildew fungus-resistant and climatic adapted grapevines with balanced, healthy yield and outstanding wine quality. Since no resistances or candidate genes have yet been described for Botrytis bunch rot (BBR), physical-mechanical traits like berry size and thick, impermeable berry cuticles phenotyped with high-throughput sensors represent novel effective parameters to predict BBR.

Phosphonic acid and especially potassium dihydrogen phosphonate are widely used to restrain the ubiquitous pressure of grapevine downy mildew in viticulture. Nevertheless, phosphonic acid and its derivatives have been banned in organic viticulture in October 2013, because they have been classified as plant protection products since then.

Climate change challenges differently wine growing systems, depending on their biophysical, sociological and economic features. Therefore, there is a need to locally design and evaluate adaptation strategies combining several technical options, and considering the local opportunities and constraints (e.g. water access, wine typicity). The case study took place in a typical and heterogeneous Mediterranean vineyard of 1,500 ha in the South of France. We developed a participatory modeling approach to (1) conceptualize local climate change issues and design spatially explicit adaptation strategies with stakeholders, (2) numerically evaluate their effects on phenology, yield and irrigation needs under the high-emissions climate change scenario RCP 8.5, and (3) collectively discuss simulation results. We organized five sets of workshops, with in-between modeling phases. A process-based model was developed that allowed to evaluate the effects of six technical options (late varieties, irrigation, water saving by reducing canopy size, adjusting cover cropping, reducing density, and shading) with various distributions in the watershed, as well as vineyard relocation. Overall, we co-designed three adaptation strategies. Delay harvest strategy with late varieties showed little effects on decreasing air temperature during ripening. Water constraint limitation strategy would compensate for production losses if disruptive adaptations (e.g. reduced density) were adopted, and more land got access to irrigation. Relocation strategy would foster high premium wine production in the constrained mountainous areas where grapevine is less impacted by climate change. This research shows that a spatial distribution of technical changes gives room for adaptation to climate change, and that the collaboration with local stakeholders is a key to the identification of relevant adaptation. Further research should explore the potential of adaptation strategies based on soil quality improvement and on water stress tolerant varieties.