GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 GiESCO 2019 9 Climate change 9 How to develop strategies of adaptation to climate change based on a foresight exercise?

How to develop strategies of adaptation to climate change based on a foresight exercise?

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study ‐ Prospective studies raise a real intellectual interest for those who contribute to them or take cognizance of it. But they are often considered too difficult to operationalize, and most of the prospective exercises are not followed by action plans, particularly at value chain level. To overcome this difficulty in linking the work of experts and the decisions of stakeholder of value chains, a particular effort was made to operationalize the outcomes from a prospective study on the French vine and wine industry in the context of climate change. The approach consisted in collecting and using the feed‐back of professionalsfrom the wine industry about these outcomes to feed a strategic think‐tank and thus allow decision‐makers of the industry “to come back to the present, better equipped to influence it according to [their] intentions and [ their] requirements “(Sébillotte, 2002).

Material and methods ‐ From 2014 to 2016, a foresight exercise was carried out within the framework of the Laccave project, and permitted to design 4 adaptation strategies to climate change (conservative, innovative, nomadic, liberal) and to describe the paths leading to them (Aigrain et al. , 2017). In 2017, six participatory seminars were organized in the main French wine regions: Bordeaux / Cognac, Champagne, Burgundy, Languedoc, Rhône Valley and Alsace. During each of them, between 60 and 100 stakeholders of the industry were invited to discuss in small groups about the issues and consequences of each proposed strategy. Then, they were asked to identify the desirable or threatening nature of these strategies and to make proposals for actions that could promote or prevent their occurrence. All information collected was recorded in the form of verbatim (Aigrain et al., 2018).

Results ‐ From these participatory workshops, the majority favored the development of technical innovations in order to maintain the current location of French vineyards and the value associated with them, while questioning the limits to keep the specificity of each appellation. The positioning vis‐à‐vis the conservative strategy is variable and depends on the regions. The appearance of new viticultural zones is concerning and represents a point of vigilance for the participants. The treatment of these numerous contributions is currently fueling the construction, in France, of a national strategy to adapt the vine and wine sector to climate change

DOI:

Publication date: June 19, 2020

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Article

Authors

Patrick AIGRAIN1, Benjamin BOIS8, Françoise BRUGIERE1, Eric DUCHENE7, Inaki GARCIA de CORTAZAR‐ATAURI6, Jacques GAUTIER2, Eric GIRAUD‐HERAUD5, Roy HAMMOND4, Hervé HANNIN3, Jean‐Marc TOUZARD4, Nathalie OLLAT5

(1) FranceAgriMer Montreuil – France
(2) INAO Montreuil – France
(3) Univ Montpellier, MOISA, Montpellier SupAgro/IHEV, Montpellier – France
(4) Univ Montpellier, Innovation, INRA, Montpellier – France
(5) EGFV, -Bordeaux Sciences Agro INRA Univ. Bordeaux, ISVV Bordeaux I– France
(6) Agroclim, INRA Avignon – France
(7) SVQV, INRA Colmar – France
(8) Université de Bourgogne Dijon – France Corresponding author

Contact the author

Keywords

Climate change, Vine and Wine industry, Adaptation, Foresight exercise, Participative approach

Tags

GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Different soil types and relief influence the quality of Merlot grapes in a relatively small area in the Vipava Valley (Slovenia) in relation to the vine water status

Besides location and microclimatic conditions, soil plays an important role in the quality of grapes and wine. Soil properties influence…

‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ (Vitis vinifera L.) berry skin flavonol and anthocyanin composition is affected by trellis systems and applied water amounts

Trellis systems are selected in wine grape vineyards to mainly maximize vineyard yield and maintain berry quality. This study was conducted in 2020 and 2021 to evaluate six commonly utilized trellis systems including a vertical shoot positioning (VSP), two relaxed VSPs (VSP60 and VSP80), a single high wire (SH), a high quadrilateral (HQ), and a guyot (GY), combined with three levels of irrigation regimes based on different crop evapotranspiration (ETc) replacements, including a 25% ETc, 50% ETc, and 100% ETc. The results indicated SH yielded the most fruits and accumulated the most total soluble solids (TSS) at harvest in 2020, however, it showed the lowest TSS in the second season. In 2020, SH and HQ showed higher concentrations in most of the anthocyanin derivatives compared to the VSPs. Similar comparisons were noticed in 2021 as well. SH and HQ also accumulated more flavonols in both years compared to other trellis systems. Overall, this study provides information on the efficacy of trellis systems on grapevine yield and berry flavonoid accumulation in a currently warming climate.

Grapevine yield estimation in a context of climate change: the GraY model

Grapevine yield is a key indicator to assess the impacts of climate change and the relevance of adaptation strategies in a vineyard landscape. At this scale, a yield model should use a number of parameters and input data in relation to the information available and be able to reproduce vineyard management decisions (e.g. soil and canopy management, irrigation). In this study, we used data from six experimental sites in Southern France (cv. Syrah) to calibrate a model of grapevine yield limited by water constraint (GraY). Each yield component (bud fertility, number of berries per bunch, berry weight) was calculated as a function of the soil water availability simulated by the WaLIS water balance model at critical phenological phases. The model was then evaluated in 10 grapegrowers’ plots, covering a diversity of biophysical and technical contexts (soil type, canopy size, irrigation, cover crop). We identified three critical periods for yield formation: after flowering on the previous year for the number of bunches and berries, around pre-veraison and post-veraison of the same year for mean berry weight. Yields were simulated with a model efficiency (EF) of 0.62 (NRMSE = 0.28). Bud fertility and number of berries per bunch were more accurately simulated (EF = 0.90 and 0.77, NRMSE = 0.06 and 0.10, respectively) than berry weight (EF = -0.31, NRMSE = 0.17). Model efficiency on the on-farm plots reached 0.71 (NRMSE = 0.37) simulating yields from 1 to 8 kg/plant. The GraY model is an original model estimating grapevine yield evolution on the basis of water availability under future climatic conditions.  It allows to evaluate the effects of various adaptation levers such as planting density, cover crop management, fruit/leaf ratio, shading and irrigation, in various production contexts.

Effect of multi-level and multi-scale spectral data source on vineyard state assessment

Currently, the main goal of agriculture is to promote the resilience of agricultural systems in a sustainable way through the improvement of use efficiency of farm resources, increasing crop yield and quality under climate change conditions. This last is expected to drastically modify plant growth, with possible negative effects, especially in arid and semi-arid regions of Europe on the viticultural sector. In this context, the monitoring of spatial behavior of grapevine during the growing season represents an opportunity to improve the plant management, winegrowers’ incomes, and to preserve the environmental health, but it has additional costs for the farmer. Nowadays, UAS equipped with a VIS-NIR multispectral camera (blue, green, red, red-edge, and NIR) represents a good and relatively cheap solution to assess plant status spatial information (by means of a limited set of spectral vegetation indices), representing important support in precision agriculture management during the growing season. While differences between UAS-based multispectral imagery and point-based spectroscopy are well discussed in the literature, their impact on plant status estimation by vegetation indices is not completely investigated in depth. The aim of this study was to assess the performance level of UAS-based multispectral (5 bands across 450-800nm spectral region with a spatial resolution of 5cm) imagery, reconstructed high-resolution satellite (Sentinel-2A) multispectral imagery (13 bands across 400-2500 nm with spatial resolution of <2 m) through Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach, and point-based field spectroscopy (collecting 600 wavelengths across 400-1000 nm spectral region with a surface footprint of 1-2 cm) in a plant status estimation application, and then, using Bayesian regularization artificial neural network for leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) and plant water status (LWP) prediction. The test site is a Greco vineyard of southern Italy, where detailed and precise records on soil and atmosphere systems, in-vivo plant monitoring of eco-physiological parameters have been conducted.

Towards a regional mapping of vine water status based on crowdsourcing observations

Monitoring vine water status is a major challenge for vineyard management because it influences both yield and harvest quality. It is also a challenge at the territorial scale for identifying periods of high water restriction or zones regularly impacted by water stress. This information is of major importance for defining collective strategies, anticipating harvest logistic or applying for irrigation authorisation. At this spatial scale, existing tools and methods for monitoring vine water status are few and often require strong assumptions (e.g. water balance model). This paper proposes to consider a collaborative collection of observations by winegrowers and wine industry stakeholders (crowdsourcing) as an interesting alternative. Indeed, it allows the collection of a large number of field observations while pooling the collection effort. However, the feasibility of such a project and its interest in monitoring vine water status at regional scale has never been tested.

The objective of this article is to explore the possibility of making a regional map of vine water status based on crowdsourcing observations. It is based on the study of the free mobile application ApeX-Vigne, which allows the collection of observations about vine shoot growth. This information is easy to collect and can be considered, under certain conditions, as a proxy for vine water status. This article presents the first results obtained from the nearly 18,000 observations collected by winegrowers and wine industry stakeholders during 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons. It presents the vine shoot growth maps obtained at regional scale and their evolution over the three vintages studied. It also proposes an analysis of the factors that favoured the number of observations collected and those that favoured their quality. These results open up new perspectives for monitoring vine water status at a regional scale but above they provide references for other crowdsourcing projects in viticulture.