How to develop strategies of adaptation to climate change based on a foresight exercise?

Grapevine breeding is part of the research program of Agroscope in Switzerland since 1965. From 1965 to 1995, the aim of the Vitis vinifera crosses was to obtain a high resistance to grey rot (Botrytis cinerea), one of the most virulent fungal pathogens in the Swiss vineyard. In 2021, the grape varieties released from this first breeding program covered 936 ha of the 15’000 ha of the Swiss vineyard.
In 1996, a second breeding program aimed at obtaining, by classical interspecific hybridization, grape varieties resistant to downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) and powdery mildew (Erisyphe necator) and less sensitive to grey rot (Botrytis cinerea). In order to accelerate and make the selection process more reliable, an early biochemical test was developed based on the natural defense mechanisms of the vine against downy mildew (stilbene phytoalexins). The synthesis of stilbenes (i.e., resveratrol and its oxidized dimers - and -viniférine) and pterostilbenes (methylated derivative) is among the most efficient induced defense mechanisms of grapevine against fungal pathogens on both the leaves and the clusters.

Effects of climate change on viticulture systems and winemaking processes are being felt across the world. The IPCC 6thAssessment Report concluded widespread and rapid changes have occurred, the scale of recent changes being unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years. These changes will continue under all emission scenarios considered, including increases in frequency and intensity of hot extremes, heatwaves, heavy precipitation and droughts. Wine companies need tools and models allowing to peer into the future and identify the moment for intervention and measures for mitigation and/or avoidance. Previously, we presented conceptual guidelines for a 5-stage framework for defining adaptation strategies for wine businesses. That framework allows for direct comparison of different solutions to mitigate perceived climate change risks. Recent global climatic evolution and multiple reports of severe events since then (smoke taint, heatwave and droughts, frost, hail and floods, rising sea levels) imply urgency in providing effective tools to tackle the multiple perceived risks. A coordinated drive towards a higher level of resilience is therefore required. Recent publications such as the Australian Wine Future Climate Atlas and results from projects such as H2020 MED-GOLD inform on expected climate change impacts to the wine sector, foreseeing the climate to expect at regional and vineyard scale in coming decades. We present examples of practical application of the Climate Change Adaptation Framework (CCAF) to impacts affecting wine production in two wine regions: Barossa (Australia) and Douro (Portugal). We demonstrate feasibility of the framework for climate adaptation from available data and tools to estimate historical climate-induced profitability loss, to project it in the future and to identify critical moments when disruptions may occur if timely measures are not implemented. Finally, we discuss adaptation measures and respective timeframes for successful mitigation of disruptive risk while enhancing resilience of wine systems.

During the 1985 harvest, I was able to notice in the taste perception a break in the harmony of the wine during even partial blends of grapes from different plots. At the same time, I noted a good reaction from customers for greater product customization. As a result, I was led to seek the objective limits of the terroir of a cuvée and by a constant and permanent refinement of the parameters specific to each of the terroirs.

Industry and regulatory agencies have developed regulations to ensure authenticity and compliance with wine composition limits. However, this can be truncated by the absence of simple and robust analytical methodologies, uninfluenced by the environment, different oenological techniques and cultural practices. Genetic fingerprinting is the most powerful tool for unequivocal varietal identification; it is not affected by the environment or agronomic practices; however, its usefulness in musts and wines has been controversial and there is currently no routine certification of varietal origin based on DNA analysis.

The concept of viticultural terroir includes soil, sub-soil, and climatic factors but also many management viticultural and oenological practices which are chosen according to know-how of the winegrowers.