Terroir 2016 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 International Terroir Conferences 9 Terroir 2016 9 Climates of Wine Regions Worldwide 9 Climate change impacts on European grapevine yields through a dynamic crop modelling approach

Climate change impacts on European grapevine yields through a dynamic crop modelling approach

Abstract

Climate has a predominant role on growth and development of grapevines. Therefore, climate change represents an important challenge to the winemaking sector. The present study aims to develop climate change projections for grapevine yields in Europe. For this purpose, gridded climatic variables over a recent-past (1950-2000) and RCP8.5 future scenarios (2041-2060), are coupled with the STICS crop model. For each grid-cell in the European sector, soil (e.g. type, texture, depth) and terrain parameters are determined and used as model inputs. Grapevine and crop management variables are also defined. Yield simulations under current and future climates are then compared to identify climate change signals. For the recent-past, the crop model is able to properly simulate yields for the main current European wine regions, showing lower yields in Southern Europe and higher yields in more central/northern regions. For the future, the results depict an increase in yield in the later regions, and a decrease in the former, mostly over inner Iberia. The projections also show a northwards extension of the potential grapevine growth areas, emerging new potential winemaking regions in northern Europe. The current study is a first attempt to apply the STICS crop model to the whole European sector, by using climatic, soil and terrain data as inputs, and the results are thereby preliminary. By using climate change projections as inputs to crop models, the present approach may represent a key decision support system for the European winemaking sector.

 

 

 

DOI:

Publication date: June 22, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2016

Type: Article

Authors

Helder FRAGA (1), Iñaki GARCÍA DE CORTÁZAR ATAURI (2), Aureliano MALHEIRO (1), João A. SANTOS (1)

(1) Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real Portugal
(2) French National Institute for Agricultural Research, INRA, US1116 AgroClim, F-84914 Avignon, France

 

Contact the author

Keywords

grapevine yields, dynamic modelling, climate change, STICS, Europe

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2016

Citation

Related articles…

‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ (Vitis vinifera L.) berry skin flavonol and anthocyanin composition is affected by trellis systems and applied water amounts

Trellis systems are selected in wine grape vineyards to mainly maximize vineyard yield and maintain berry quality. This study was conducted in 2020 and 2021 to evaluate six commonly utilized trellis systems including a vertical shoot positioning (VSP), two relaxed VSPs (VSP60 and VSP80), a single high wire (SH), a high quadrilateral (HQ), and a guyot (GY), combined with three levels of irrigation regimes based on different crop evapotranspiration (ETc) replacements, including a 25% ETc, 50% ETc, and 100% ETc. The results indicated SH yielded the most fruits and accumulated the most total soluble solids (TSS) at harvest in 2020, however, it showed the lowest TSS in the second season. In 2020, SH and HQ showed higher concentrations in most of the anthocyanin derivatives compared to the VSPs. Similar comparisons were noticed in 2021 as well. SH and HQ also accumulated more flavonols in both years compared to other trellis systems. Overall, this study provides information on the efficacy of trellis systems on grapevine yield and berry flavonoid accumulation in a currently warming climate.

The use of rootstock as a lever in the face of climate change and dieback of vineyard

As viticulture faces challenges such as climate change or vineyard dieback, the choice of the variety and rootstock becomes more and more crucial. To study rootstock levers in the Bordeaux region, a parcel of Cabernet Sauvignon (CS) was planted with four rootstocks in 2014. Twenty repetitions of each of the following four rootstocks were set up: 101-14 MGt, Nemadex AB, 420A MGt and Gravesac. The number of bunches, yields and pruning weights of the vine shoots were measured individually on 240 vines from 2017 to 2021. Since 2020, nitrogen status assessed by assimilable nitrogen level, hydric status assessed by δ13C and berry maturity were measured on 80 samples taken from 20 repetitions of the four rootstocks. A lower yield was measured for CS grafted onto Nemadex AB due to the lower number of bunches and the lower weight of berries. The differences between the other three rootstocks are small, but CS grafted onto 420A MGt was the most productive. The CS grafted onto Nemadex AB had the lowest pruning weight while 101-14 MGt had the highest. In 2020, δ13C showed a more moderate water stress with 101-14 MGt and 420A MGt than with Nemadex AB. Surprisingly, the Gravesac was under more stress than the 101-14 MGt. The nitrogen status in the berries was better for Nemadex AB but this was perhaps due to the significantly lower weight of the berries.Rootstock 101-14 MGt attained the highest accumulation of sugars in the berries while 420A MGt allows to preserve higher acidity. The parcel is still young which may explain some of the results. These measures must therefore be continued over the next several years to fully assess the effects of these rootstocks on the development of the vines and the quality of the production under new climatic conditions.

Traditional agroforestry vineyards, sources of inspiration for the agroecological transition of viticulture

A unique “terroir” can be found in southern Bolivia, which combines the specific features of climate, topography and altitude of high valleys, with the management of grapevines staked on trees. It is one of the rare remnants of agroforestry viticulture. A survey was carried out among 29 grapegrowers in three valleys, to characterize the structure and management of these vineyards, and identify the services they expect from trees. Farms were small (2.2 ha on average) and 85% of vineyards were less than 1 ha. Viticulture was associated with vegetable, fruit and fodder production, sometimes in the same fields. Molle trees were found in all plots, together with one or two other native tree species. Traditional grapevine varieties such as Negra Criolla, Moscatel de Alejandría and Vicchoqueña were grown with a large range of densities from 1550 to 9500 vines ha-1. From 18 to 30% of them were staked on trees, with 1.2 to 4.9 vines per tree. The management of these vineyards (irrigation, fertilization and grapevine protection) was described, the most particular technical operation being the coordinated pruning of trees and grapevines. Three types of management could be identified in the three valleys. Grapegrowers had a clear idea of the ecosystem services they expected from trees in their vineyards. The main one was protection against climate hazards (hail, frost, flood). Then they expected benefits in terms of pest and disease control, improvement of soil fertility and resulting yield. At last, some producers claimed that tree-staking was quicker and cheaper than conventional trellising. It can be hypothesized then that agroforestry is a promising technique for the agroecological transition of viticulture. Its contribution to the “terroir” of the high valleys of southern Bolivia and its link with the specificities of the wines and spirits produced there remain to be explored.

Effect of regulated deficit irrigation regime on amino acids content of Monastrell (Vitis vinifera L.) grapes

Irrigation is an important practice to influence vine quality, especially in Mediterranean regions, characterized by hot summers and severe droughts during the growing season. This study focused on deficit irrigation regime influence on amino acids composition of Monastrell grapevines under semiarid conditions (Albacete, Southeastern of Spain). In 2019, two treatments were applied: non-irrigation (NI) and regulated deficit irrigation (RDI), watered at 30% of the estimated crop evapotranspiration from fruit set to onset of veraison. Grape amino acids content was analyzed by HPLC. Berries from non-irrigated vines showed higher concentration of several amino acids, such as tryptophan (73%), arginine (70%), lysine (36%), isoleucine (27%), and leucine (21%), compared to RDI grapes. Arginine is, together with ammonium ion, the principal nitrogen source for yeasts during the alcoholic fermentation; while isoleucine, tryptophan, and leucine are precursors of fermentative volatile compounds, key compounds for wine quality. Moreover, NI treatment increased in a 14% the total amino acids content in grapes compared to RDI treatment. The reported effects might be because yield was 70% higher in RDI vines than in the NI ones and, therefore, the sink demand was increased in the irrigated vines. In addition, NI vines suffered more severe water stress and it is known that the amino acids synthesis and accumulation can be influenced by the plant response to stress. According to the results, the irrigation regime showed effect on amino acids concentration in Monastrell grapes under semiarid conditions. Grapes from non-irrigated vines showed a higher content of several amino acids relevant to the fermentative process and to the wine aroma compounds formation. It is demonstrated that the final content of nitrogen-related components in grapes is influenced by the irrigation regime. The convenience of the irrigation strategy to suggest will depend on the desired wine style and the target yield levels.

Climate ethnography and wine environmental futures

Globalisation and climate change have radically transformed world wine production upsetting the established order of wine ecologies. Ecological risks and the future of traditional agricultural systems are widely debated in anthropology, but very little is understood of the particular challenges posed by climate change to viticulture which is seen by many as the canary in the coalmine of global agriculture. Moreover, wine as a globalised embedded commodity provides a particularly telling example for the study of climate change having already attracted early scientific attention. Studies of climate change in viticulture have focused primarily on the production of systematic models of adaptation and vulnerability, while the human and cultural factors, which are key to adaptation and sustainable futures, are largely missing. Climate experts have been unanimous in recognising the urgent need for a better understanding of the complex dynamics that shape how climate change is experienced and responded to by human systems. Yet this call has not yet been addressed. Climate ethnography, coined by the anthropologist Susan Crate (2011), aims to bridge this growing disjuncture between climate science and everyday life through the exploration of the social meaning of climate change. It seeks to investigate the confrontation of its social salience in different locations and under different environmental guises (Goodman 2018: 340). By understanding how wine producers make sense of the world (and the environment) and act in it, it proposes to focus on the co-production of interdisciplinary knowledge by identifying and foreshadowing problems (Goodman 2018: 342; Goodman & Marshall 2018). It seeks to offer an original, transformative and contrasted perspective to climate change scenarios by investigating human agency -individual or collective- in all its social, political and cultural diversity. An anthropological approach founded on detailed ethnographies of wine production is ideally placed to address economic, social and cultural disruptions caused by the emergence of these new environmental challenges. Indeed, the community of experts in environmental change have recently called for research that will encompass the human dimension and for more broad-based, integrated through interdisciplinarity, useful knowledge (Castree & al 2014). My paper seeks to engage with climate ethnography and discuss what it brings to the study of wine environmental futures while exploring the limitations of the anthropological environmental approach.