Terroir 2016 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 International Terroir Conferences 9 Terroir 2016 9 Climates of Wine Regions Worldwide 9 Climate change projections in serbian wine-growing regions

Climate change projections in serbian wine-growing regions

Abstract

Changes in bioclimatic indices in wine-growing region of Serbia are analyzed under the RCP 8.5 IPCC scenario. Results of a global climate model are dynamically downscaled on a horizontal resolution of about 8 km, using a regional model NMMB for a period 1971-2100. Statistical bias correction of regional climate model’s daily outputs of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature are done for an entire territory of Serbia, using a dataset of daily observation on a regular 8 km grid. Four of bioclimatic indices widely used in viticulture were calculated from the observations in the period 1971-2000 and from the bias corrected model output for two periods in the future, 2011-2040 and 2071-2100.

Results show temperature increase, especially during the vegetation period. By the end of the century precipitation amount during the growing season will significantly drop, alongside with a change of the intramural precipitation distribution towards the Mediterranean climate characteristics. Consequently, climate characteristics of Serbian wine-growing regions will drastically change towards a very warm and moderately dry climate categories.

DOI:

Publication date: June 23, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2016

Type: Article

Authors

Mirjam VUJADINOVIC (1,2), Ana VUKOVIC (1,2,) Darko JAKSIC (3), Vladimir DJURDJEVIC (4,2), Mirjana RUML (1), Zorica RANKOVIC-VASIC (1), Zoran PRZIC (1), Branislava SIVCEV (1), Nebojsa MARKOVIC (1), Bojan CVETKOVIC (2), Pierfederico LA NOTTE (5)

(1) Department of Viticulture, Institute of Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, 11080 Belgrade, Nemanjina 6., Serbia
(2) South East European Climate Change Center, RHMSS, 11000 Belgrade, Bulevar Oslobodjenja 8, Serbia
(3) Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection, 11000 Belgrade, Nemanjina 22-26, Serbia
(4) Institute of Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, 11000 Belgrade, Dobracina 16, Serbia
(5) Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection, National Research Council of Italy, I-70126 Bari, Via Zmendola 122/D, Italy

Contact the author

Keywords

climate change, wine-growing regions, Serbia, regional climate model, high resolution, viticulture

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2016

Citation

Related articles…

Upscaling the integrated terroir zoning through digital soil mapping: a case study in the Designation of Origin Campo de Borja

homogeneous zones by intersecting several partial zonings of major factors that influence vineyard growth. Each of them follows specific process from their corresponding disciplines. Soil zoning specifically refers to a Soil Resource Inventory map that has traditionally been generated by conventional soil mapping methods. These methods have shortcomings in reaching fine cartographic and categorical details and involve significant expenses, which undermines their applicability. A new framework named Digital Soil Mapping has introduced quantitative models by statistical techniques to establish soil-landscape relationships and is able to provide intensive scale cartography.

In the present study, a microzoning at 1:10.000 scale is generated from an initial zoning, where the conventional soil map with polytaxic map units is replaced by a new one from digital techniques that disaggregates them. The comparison between the zonings considers a quantitative evaluation of capability for each Homogeneous Terroir Unit by means of the Viticultural Quality Index and its categorization based on its distribution by map. The spatial intersection of both maps gives rise to a confusion matrix in which the flows of class variations after the substitution are assessed.

The results show a five-fold increase in the number of Homogeneous Terroir Units identified and a larger differentiation among them, evidenced by a wider range in the capability index distribution. Both elements are accompanied by an increase in the detection of areas of higher potential within previously undervalued uniform zones.These features are a direct effect of the improvements brought by Digital Soil Mapping techniques and would verify the advantages of their implementation in the Integrated Terroir zoning. Eventually, such new highly detailed terroir units would benefit precision viticulture and sustainable management practices.

Climate and the evolving mix of grape varieties in Australia’s wine regions

The purpose of this study is to examine the changing mix of winegrape varieties in Australia so as to address the question: In the light of key climate indicators and predictions of further climate change, how appropriate are the grape varieties currently planted in Australia’s wine regions? To achieve this, regions are classified into zones according to each region’s climate variables, particularly average growing season temperature (GST), leaving aside within-region variations in climates. Five different climatic classifications are reported. Using projections of GSTs for the mid- and late 21st century, the extent to which each region is projected to move from its current zone classification to a warmer one is reported. Also shown is the changing proportion of each of 21 key varieties grown in a GST zone considered to be optimal for premium winegrape production. Together these indicators strengthen earlier suggestions that the mix of varieties may be currently less than ideal in many Australian wine regions, and would become even less so in coming decades if that mix was not altered in the anticipation of climate change. That is, grape varieties in many (especially the warmest) regions will have to keep changing, or wineries will have to seek fruit from higher latitudes or elevations if they wish to retain their current mix of varieties and wine styles.

Mapping and tracking canopy size with VitiCanopy

Understanding vineyard variability to target management strategies, apply inputs efficiently and deliver consistent grape quality to the winery is essential. However, despite inherent vineyard variability, the majority are managed as if they are uniform. VitiCanopy is a simple, grower-friendly tool for precision/digital viticulture that allows users to collect and interpret objective spatial information about vineyard performance. After four years of field and market research, an upgraded VitiCanopy has been created to achieve a more streamlined, technology-assisted vine monitoring tool that provides users with a set of superior new features, which could significantly improve the way users monitor their grapevines. These new features include:
• New user interface
• User authentication
• Batch analysis of multiple images
• Ease the learning curve through enhanced help features
• Reporting via the creation of colour maps that will allow users to assess the spatial differences in canopies within a vineyard.
Use-case examples are presented to demonstrate the quantification and mapping of vineyard variability through objective canopy measurements, ground-truthing of remotely sensed measurements, monitoring of crop conditions, implementation of disease and water management decisions as well as creating a history of each site to forecast quality. This intelligent tool allows users to manage grapevines and make informed management choices to achieve the desired production targets and remain profitable.

VINIoT – Precision viticulture service

The project VINIoT pursues the creation of a new technological vineyard monitoring service, which will allow companies in the wine sector in the SUDOE space to monitor plantations in real time and remotely at various levels of precision. The system is based on spectral images and an IoT architecture that allows assessing parameters of interest viticulture and the collection of data at a precise scale (level of grape, plant, plot or vineyard) will be designed. In France, three subjects were specifically developed: evaluation of maturity, of water stress, and detection of flavescence dorée. For the evaluation of maturity, it has been decided first to work at the berry scale in the laboratory, then at the bunch scale and finally in the vineyard. The acquisition of the spectral hyperstal image as well as the reference analyzes to measure the maturity, were carried out in the laboratory after harvesting the berries in a maturity monitoring context. This work focuses on a case study to predict sugar content of three different grape varieties: Syrah, Fer Servadou and Mauzac. A robust method called Roboost-PLSR, developed in the framework of this work (Courand et al., 2022), to improve prediction model performance was applied on spectra after the acquirement of hyperspectral images. Regarding the evaluation of water stress, to work with a significant variability in terms of water status, it has been worked first with potted plants under 2 different water regimes. The facilities have allowed the supervision of irrigation and micro-climatic conditions. The regression models on agronomic variables (stomatal conductance, water potential, …) are studied. To detect flavescence dorée, the experimental plan has consisted of work at leaf scale in the laboratory first, and then in the field. To detect the disease from hyper-spectral imaging, a combination of multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) and factorial discriminant analysis (FDA) was proposed. This strategy proved the potential towards the discrimination of healthy and infected leaves by flavescence dorée based on the use of hyperspectral images (Mas Garcia et al., 2021).

Mechanisms involved in the heating of the environment by the aerodynamic action of a wind machine to protect a vineyard against spring frost

One of the main consequences of global warming is the rise of the mean temperature. Thus, the heat summation by the plants begins sooner in the early spring, and by cumulating growing degree-days, phenological development tends to happen earlier. However, spring frost is still a recurrent phenomenon causing serious damages to buds and therefore, threatening the harvests of the winegrowers. The wind machine is a solution to protect fruit crops against spring frost that is increasingly used. It is composed of a 10-m mast with a blowing fan at its peak. By tapping into the strength of the nocturnal thermal inversion, it sweeps the crop by propelling warm air above to the ground. Thus, stratification is momentarily suppressed. Furthermore, the continuous action of the machine, alone or in synergy, or the addition of a heater allow the bud to be bathed in a warmer environment. Also, the punctual action of the tower’s warm gust reaches the bud directly at each rotation period. All these actions allow the bud to continuously warm up, but with different intensities and over a different period. Although there is evidence of the effectiveness of the wind machines, the thermal transfers involved in those mechanisms raise questions about their true nature. Field measurements based on ultrasonic anemometers and fast responding thermocouples complemented by laboratory measurements on a reduced scale model allow to characterize both the airflow produced by the wind machine and the local temperature in its vicinity. Those experiments were realized in the vineyard of Quincy, in the framework of the SICTAG project. In the future paper, we will detail the aeraulic characterization of the wind machine and the thermal effects resulting from it and we will focus on how the wind machine warms up the local atmosphere and enables to reduce the freezing risk.