The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

Ripening of Vitis vinifera grapes varieties in São Joaquim, a new wine growing region, Southern Brazil

This report has investigated the ripening characteristics of Vitis vinifera grapes Cabernet Franc, Merlot, Sangiovese and Syrah in two consecutive vintages (2006 and 2007), in order to evaluate the adaptation from these recently varieties planted in São Joaquim town, Santa Catarina State, Brazil.

An alternative for reducing calcium in wine and lowering the risk of insoluble salt formation

Wine minerals, including calcium, derive mainly from grape berry extraction, but they could also arise from winemaking additives, processing aids, and other sources.

UNRAVELING THE CHEMICAL MECHANISM OF MND FORMATION IN RED WINE DURING BOTTLE AGING : IDENTIFICATION OF A NEW GLUCOSYLATED HYDROXYKETONE PRO-PRECURSOR

During bottle aging, the development of wine aroma through low and gradual oxygen exposure is often positive in red wines, but can be unfavorable in many cases, resulting in a rapid loss of fresh, fruity flavors. Prematurely aged wines are marked by intense prune and fig aromatic nuances that dominate the desirable bouquet achieved through aging (Pons et al., 2013). This aromatic defect, in part, is caused by the presence of 3-methyl-2,4-nonanedione (MND). MND content was shown to be lower in nonoxidized red wines and higher in oxidized red wines, which systematically exceeds the odor detection threshold (62 ng/L).

Characterizing the molecular basis of the differences in aromatic precursors found in commercial clones of Vitis vinifera cv. Tannat

Uruguay is known for the production of Tannat wines, which is a neutral variety from an aroma point of view, but capable of providing aromatic precursors that are of interest in the production of wines for ageing. The main aromatic precursors present are glycosidic compounds and carotenoids. The contribution of carotenoid degradation by-products such as norisoprenoids to wine aroma is fundamental, as they are associated with pleasant aroma descriptors and very low olfactory perception thresholds. Several factors have been shown to influence carotenoid concentrations in grapes, such as cultivar, climatic conditions, viticultural region, plant water status, exposure to sunlight and ripening stage.

Changes in grape-associated microbiome as a consequence of post-harvest withering

AIM: Grape withering is an oenological post-harvest process used for production of reinforced and sweet wines. Drying can be carried out by keeping the ripe grape in traditional large, well-aired rooms (non-controlled environment) or, more and more often, in a warehouse under controlled conditions of airflow and relative humidity (controlled environment)[1].