The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

Linear sweep voltammetry to classify and characterize the antioxidant properties of tannins

In recent years, numerous studies have been carried out at the OIV on oenological tannins, both with regard to oenological properties and methods of characterization. The results of these recent studies have led to the revision of the general monograph and the drafting of four new monographs, one for each of the four chemical classes into which the tannins have been grouped: ellagitannins, gallotannins, procyanidins/prodelphinidins, profisetinidins/prorobinetinins.

Agroclimatic characterisation of the Portugese wine denominations of origin using a compound index

Aims: This study aims to: (1) characterize the agroclimatic conditions of the Portuguese Denominations of Origin, using a compound index that combines thermal and soil water balance conditions and a high-resolution climatic dataset (~1 km spatial resolution); (2) categorize the main grapevine varieties as a function of this compound index.

Oenological potential of indigenous greek grape varieties and their clones

Vine clone selection aims at the survival of clones with particularly desireable attributes for the production of high quality wines. The purpose of this research was to study the enological potential of the clones of Greek indigenous grape varieties over two vintages, 2018 and 2019.
METHODS: Two clones of the white grape varieties Moschofilero (E26 and E27), Assyrtiko (E11 and 16), Roditis (25E16 and 02E1E21) and two clones of the red grape varieties Xinomavro (19 and E2E30) and Agiorgitiko (03E40 and 41E47) were vinified under the same protocol for the white wines and common for the red wines in 2018 and 2019. The resulting products were studied for several enological parameters such as alcohol content, volatile acidity, pH, total phenolics, anthocyanins and tannins for the red wines, as well as browning tests for the white wines. The aroma profile of these ten samples was investigated through sensory analysis with intensity rating of individual attributes on a five-point scale by a trained panel.

The influence of culture medium on the dynamics of fermentation of wine yeasts

Wine yeast strains Saccharomyces ellipsoideus have important applications in food industry and in this regard is sought isolation as pure cultures and selecting those strains, which in laboratory investigations which have great biotechnological properties This study was intended as the ratio of live cells and autolysates cells also the influence of culture medium on this report. Yeasts selected for this study were isolated from industrial strains of indigenous grape varieties, namely: Feteasca Royal (FR) Feteasca White (FA), black Feteasca (FN), Romanian Tamaioasa (TR), Babeasca Black (BN) and Cotnari Grasa (GC).

Temperature variability assessment at vineyard scale: control of data accuracy and data processing protocol

Climatic variability studies at fine scale have been developed in recent years with the reduction of material cost and the development of competitive miniaturized sensors. This work is forming part the LIFE-ADVICLIM project, of which one of the objectives is to model spatial temperature variability at vineyard scale. In the Bordeaux pilot site, a large network of data loggers has been set up to record temperature close to the vine canopy. The reduced distance between plant foliage and measurement equipment raises specific issues and leads to an increased rate of outliers compared to data retrieved from classical weather stations. Some of these were detected during data analysis, but others could not be easily identified. The present study aims to address the issue of data quality control and provide recommendations for data processing in climatic studies at fine scale.