The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

Cartography of « Terroir Units » is a Tool to Improve the Ré Island Vineyard Management (France)

A study of « terroirs » was achieved from 2003 to 2005 in the whole vineyard of the Ré island (17, France). Over more than 1,990 ha, a cartography at the 1/10.000 scale, including characterization of climatic, pedological, geological and hydrogeological components of « Basic Terroir Units » (B.T.U.) was made. Also, a survey among wine growers was conducted. All data were treated together in a G.I.S. connected to a data base. 22 kinds of map were built (B.T.U. and components, soil water reserve, vine functioning potentials, varieties, rootstocks, viticultural practices and soil management).

New insights of translocation of smoke-related volatile phenols in vivo grapevines

The increasing frequency of wildfires in grape-growing regions is seen as a significant risk for the grape and wine industry.

Wood from barrique: release of phenolic compounds and permeability to oxygen

Chemical and sensory changes occurring in red wine during ageing in oak barrique are due to the slow and gradual entrance of oxygen along with a release of ellagic tannin from the wood. Though oxygen can enter the cask through the bunghole, it is not clear the role of permeation through the wood staves as well as the amount of oxygen entering by permeation. The distribution of the released ellagic tannins in the wine ageing is also unknown. The oxygen passing through the bunghole may have a different wine ageing effect compared to the oxygen permeating through the wooden staves owing to the uneven ellagic tannin concentration throughout the wine.

New oenological technology for adaptation to climate change: reduction of alcohol content during wine fermentation through stripping, with fermentative CO2

The capture and valorization of fermentative CO2 have been developed for several years by the company w platform for internal uses, notably in the cellars: inerting, cooling, reduction of water consumption, extraction, with aroma valorization. In a context of climatic warming during the vegetative cycle, grapes are currently harvested with a significant sugar concentration, a phenomenon that is expected to intensify in the coming decades. The high alcohol content of the resulting wines goes against the demand of customers who are seeking high-quality wines with less alcohol.

Irrigation frequency in four grapevine red varieties in Spain. Effect on must volatile composition

The irrigation water management in the vineyard is a crucial aspect to obtain sustainable quality production over time. Previous studies have set the water requirements to be applied in the vineyard at 30 % of the reference evapotranspiration (ET0), although there are no studies that settle the effects of the frequency of irrigation application on red varieties in Spain. The present study contemplates the application of deficit irrigation (30 % ET0) applying a weekly dose in a single irrigation (T07) or in two irrigation events (T03) per week. The study has been carried out in 2021-2022 with four red varieties in different Spanish wine regions: Garnacha Tinta (Badajoz), Tempranillo (Valladolid), Syrah (Albacete) and Mencía (Lugo). The effects of irrigation frequency on must volatile composition have been evaluated through GC-MS.