The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

Relationships between vine isohydricity and changes of fruit growth and metabolism during water deficit

The frequency of water deficits is increasing in many grape-growing regions due to climate change.

Chemical and biochemical formation of polysulfides in synthetic and real wines using UHPLC-HRMS

ulfur compounds in wine have been studied for several years due to their impact on wine flavour, but the role of polysulfides is a recent topic. Polysulfides in wine are formed when two sulfhydryl groups oxidize, especially in presence of elemental sulfur or metal catalysts from field treatment residues (Ugliano et al. 2011). These compounds are odourless, but can degrade during storage and affect the wine quality. The mechanism of their formation is still largely unknown but different chemical and biochemical pathways have been suggested. Disulfides from cysteine (Cys) and glutathione (GSH) have been revealed in model wines (Kreitman et al. 2016) and more recently also higher polymerized forms in real wines (Van Leeuwen et al. 2020). Volatile varietal thiols like 3-mercaptohexanol (3MH) and 4-mercaptopentanone (4MMP) – flavour compounds with tropical or fruity notes – could undergo similar reactions, also with Cys and GSH, subsequently losing their flavour property (fate). Even more concerning is the possible release of H2S from polysulfides during storage, leading to undesired off-flavours (Sarrazin et al. 2010).

Aromatic profile evolution of corvina, corvinone and rondinella grapes during withering

AIM AND METHODS: Grape withering is one of the key steps in the production of the most renowned red wines of the Valpolicella area, namely Amarone and Recioto. This practice, which was already used since Roman times, entails important modifications in grape composition and in the chemical and sensorial characteristics of the corresponding wines, especially in terms of aromatic profile. The aim of this research is evaluating the aromatic evolution during grape withering of the three main varieties used in Valpolicella wines: Corvina, Corvinone and Rondinella.Samples of the three varieties were analyzed at harvest and at different stages of withering, namely10%, 20% and 30% of weight loss. Free and glycosidically bound compounds were extracted and analyzed using Gas Chromatography- Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). RESULTS: For all the samples the data were normalized to eliminate the effect of concentration due to grape dehydration. Terpene content and evolution varied considerably in relationship to grape variety. Corvinone was richer in cyclic terpenes (including phellandrene, limonene, and cymene) and they decreased during withering.

Sensorial characteristic of single variety red wines from four local variants of Tempranillo

It is well-known that there is a relationship between the “terroir” and the characteristics of grapes and quality of wines. However, adequate grape variety and other cultural factors should be also taken into account

Screening of aroma metabolites within a set of 90 Saccharomyces strains

Currently, the main demand in the global wine market relies on products with unique flavour profiles, character, and typicity, and the metabolism of yeasts greatly influences the organoleptic properties of wines. Therefore, the natural diversity of Saccharomyces strains rises in interest over the last decade, but a large part of this phenotypic diversity remains unexplored