Terroir 2014 banner

The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

Download the PDF

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

 

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

Influence of Potential Alcohol and pH Adjustment on Polyphenols and Sensory Characteristics of Red Wines Produced at Different Harvest Time Points

Wine quality is influenced by grape maturity, typically monitored by measuring sugar content and acidity.
Read More

Trans-resveratrol concentrations in wines Cabernet Sauvignon from Chile

This study evaluated the levels of trans-resveratrol in commercial wines made from Cabernet Sauvignon grapes from different valleys of Chile stilbenes. The Cabernet Sauvignon is the most planted variety in Chile, being 38% of the total vineyard country. Chile is the fourth largest wine exporter in the world, so it is important to evaluate the Cabernet-Sauvignon wines in their concentration levels of trans-resveratrol and its relation to the benefits provided to human health in moderate consumption. Evaluation comprises commercial wines from different valleys of Chile and its relationship with climatic characteristics, soil and vineyard handling.

Read More

Use of Lactiplantibacillus plantarum (ML PrimeTm) to improve malolactic fermentation of catarratto wine subjected to long post-fermentative maceration.

AIM: Lactiplantibacillus plantarum species is wordwide used as starter for malolactic fermentation [1,2]. For the first time, in the present study, the use of L. plantarum (ML PrimeTM, Lallemand wine) to produce white wines with post-fermentative maceration extended until 60 days has been investigated.

Read More

Towards a better understanding of cultivar susceptibility to esca disease: results from a pluriannual common garden monitoring

Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) exhibits a high level of genetic and phenotypic diversity among the approximately 6000 cultivars recorded. This perennial crop is highly vulnerable to numerous fungal diseases, including esca, which is a complex vascular pathology that poses a significant threat to the wine sector, as there is currently no cost-efficient curative method[1]. In this context, an effective approach to mitigate the impact of such diseases is by leveraging the crop’s genetic diversity. Indeed, susceptibility to esca disease appears to vary between cultivars, under artificial or natural infection. However, the mechanisms and varietal characteristics underlying cultivar susceptibility to esca are still unknown.

Read More

Evaluation of spraying effects of plant protection unmanned aerial vehicle on two different training systems of vine in Northeast China

In recent years, the application of plant protection unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in agricultural pest control has become more and more popular. However, there are few reports about the application of plant protection UAV for wine grapes, and there are no studies comparing the spraying effect of plant protection UAV with that of manual operation in vineyards. In this context, the objective of this study was to explore the feasibility of using plant protection UAV in vineyards instead of manual operations by evaluating the effectiveness of UAV spray in two common grape training systems in Northeast China.

Read More