The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

DETERMINATION OF FREE AMINO ACIDS, AMINO ACID POTENTIAL AND PROTEASE ACTIVITY IN THE LEES AND STILL WINES OF CHAMPAGNE

Prior to winemaking, organic or mineral nitrogen compound concentrations are usually measured in the vineyard and in grape musts. These indicators facilitate vine cultivation decisions, usually through yield or vigor. During vinification, yeast and bacteria metabolize nitrogen compounds in the musts in order to generate biomass. After fermentation, the microorganisms rerelease a part of this nitrogen as soluble compounds into the wines. Another part remains bound in the lees and can be lost during racking. The must’s natural nitrogen quantities, additional supplements during fermentation, and lees contact management enhance the release of nitrogen compounds to the wines. During ageing these nitrogen compounds – primarily the amino acids – are implicated in the generation of odorous compounds such as heterocycles(1).

Alcohol preference and health behaviors in patients with cardiometabolic diseases: insights from the multi-center iact cross-sectional study

Recognizing the influence of alcohol preference on health behaviors is essential for developing tailored interventions that effectively promote healthier lifestyles and optimize disease management strategies in the vulnerable population of patients with cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). The present study aims to provide valuable insights into how alcohol preference relates to dietary habits and medication adherence among patients with CMD diseases.

Vineyard soils characterization and its influence on the grape quality of cv. Carmenère in the Maipo Valley, Chile

Produced since 1998, the De Martino Single Vineyard Carmenère is the first Carmenère Icon wine of Chile. The grapes are coming form a plot of 11 ha in Isla de Maipo, where the technicians of the winery have developed knowledge of their work, resulting in 3 levels of quality of the grapes.

Temperature variability inside a wine production area and its effect on vine phenology and grape ripening. An example from the Saint-Emilion-Pomerol

AIM: the aim of this study was to develop a method for fine-scale temperature zoning. The effect of temperature variability on vine phenology and grape composition was assessed in the production area of Saint-Emilion

Amyndeon‐naoussa: the two faces of Xinomavro

Xinomavro is the most important indigenous red wine variety grown in Northern Greece. It participates in the production of several PGI wines in Macedonia while from 100% Xinomavro the PDO “Amyndeon” and “Naoussa” are produced. The viticultural area of Amyndeon lies in a plateau of 550 ‐700 m of altitude, in a semi‐continental climate with mostly deep sandy loamy soils derived from limestone and marl bedrocks while in Naoussa, Xinomavro is grown in a Mediterranean climate on more heavy textured soils, sandy clay loam to clay, derived from ophiolithic, limestone and marl bedrocks, in an altitude which varies from 150 to 400 m. Different soil, climate and viticultural technique interactions, result in great variability with respect to morphological, ampelographical and physiological characters of Xinomavro as well as in the characteristics of the wines produced.