Terroir 2020 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Unprecedented rainfall in northern Portugal

Unprecedented rainfall in northern Portugal

Abstract

Aim: Climate is arguably one of the most important factors determining the quality of wine from any given grapevine variety. High rainfall during spring can promote growth of the vines but increases the risk of fungal disease, while vineyard operations can be disrupted, as machinery may be prevented from getting in the vineyard owing to muddy soils. Conversely, high rainfall during harvest time (August to October) also bears the potential for severe operational disruption and heavy economic losses. To date, the probability of unprecedented rainfall amounts in spring and the harvest season has not been assessed over northern Portugal, specifically the three wine-growing regions of Vinho Verde, Trás-os-Montes and Porto and Douro DOC. In a situation of higher climatic variability, establishing the probable limits of rainfall variation during critical moments of the vine growth cycle will allow for better readiness of farmers as well as higher resilience of the whole value chain.

Methods and Results: Observed rainfall totals for northern Portugal were extracted from version 21 of the E-OBS dataset. Monthly rainfall totals were archived from a series of 16 month-long hindcasts produced with the Met Office’s decadal prediction system DePreSys3. These hindcasts begin in November of each year, corresponding to the start of each viticultural campaign. The hindcasts are produced from 1980 to 2017, when satellite data are available for model initialisation. Forty ensemble members are available for each start time, providing 1520 (38 × 40) simulations of spring and late summer rainfall totals. The hindcast and observed rainfall totals are considered indistinguishable if the mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis from the observations are within the respective 2.5th–97.5th percentile ranges from 10,000 model bootstraps. It was necessary to shift the modelled mean for spring rainfall owing to a wet bias in the simulations. The model results showed there was a probability of 0.02 ± 0.01 of an unprecedented rainfall event in spring and summer. However, the chance of another year with an exceptionally wet spring and late summer (as happened in 1993) is extremely small.

Conclusions: 

Rainfall totals in northern Portugal over the past 38 years have been very high in a few years, but higher values are possible in the current climate. The chance of another year similar to 1993, when both seasons were exceptionally wet, is very low. The uncertainty in extreme rainfall estimates is considerably reduced when the modelled data are used. A year with rainfall equal to the highest observed amounts in one of these two seasons could be expected to occur just once in the next 30-100 years.

Significance and Impact of the Study: This study is the first to assess the probability of unprecedented rainfall extremes over northern Portugal, allowing for a better estimate of the inherent risk. The results help inform the need for costly adaptation investments, such as better availability of spraying machinery and labour, high-gauge drainage, landslide controls or even abandonment of exposed vineyard areas.

DOI:

Publication date: March 17, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2020

Type: Video

Authors

Michael G. Sanderson1*, Marta Teixeira2, Natacha Fontes2, Sara Silva2, António Graça2

1Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
2Sogrape Vinhos, S.A., Aldeia nova, 4430-809 Avintes, Portugal

Contact the author

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2020

Citation

Related articles…

Effect of partial net shading on the temperature and radiation in the grapevine canopy, consequences on the grape quality of cv. Gros Manseng in PDO Pacherenc-du-vic-Bilh

As elsewhere, southwestern France vineyards face more recurrent summer heat waves these last years. Among the possibilities of adaptation to this climate changing parameter, the use of net shading is a technique that allow for limiting canopy exposure to radiations. In this trial, we tested net shading installed on one face of the canopy, on a north-south row-oriented plot of cv. Gros Manseng trained on VSP system in the PDO Pacherenc-du-Vic-Bilh. The purpose was to characterize the effects on the ambient canopy temperatures and radiations during the season and to observe the consequences on the composition of grapes and wines. Two sorts of net were used with two levels of obstruction (50% and 75%) of the photosynthesis active radiation (PAR). They have been installed on the west side of the canopy and compared to a netless control. Temperature and PAR sensors registered hourly data during the season. On specific summer day (hot and sunny) manual measurements took also place on bunches (temperature) and in different spots of the canopy (PAR). The results showed that, on clear days, the radiation is lowered by the shade nets respecting the supplier criteria. The effects on the ambient canopy temperature were inconstant on this plot when we observed the data from the global period of shading between fruit set and harvest. However, during hot days (>30°C), the temperature in the canopy was reduced during afternoon and the temperature of the bunch surface was reduced as well comparing to the control. A decrease of the maturity parameters of the berries, sugar and acidity, was also observed. Concerning the wine aromatic potential, no differences clearly appeared.

Heatwaves and grapevine yield in the Douro region, crop model simulations

Heatwaves or extreme heat events can be particularly harmful to agriculture. Grapevines grown in the Douro winemaking region are particularly exposed to this threat, due to the specificities of the already warm and dry climatic conditions. Furthermore, climate change simulations point to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of these extreme heat events, therefore posing a major challenge to winegrowers in the Mediterranean type climates. The current study focuses on the application of the STICS crop model to assess the potential impacts of heatwaves in grapevine yields over the Douro valley winemaking region. For this purpose, STICS was applied to grapevines using high-resolution weather, soil and terrain datasets over the Douro. To assess the impact of heatwaves, the weather dataset (1989-2005) was artificially modified, generating periods with anomalously high temperatures (+5 ºC), at certain onset dates and with specific durations (from 5 to 9 days). The model was run with this modified weather dataset and results were compared to the original unmodified runs. The results show that heatwaves can have a very strong impact on grapevine yields, strongly depending on the onset dates and duration of the heatwaves. The highest negative impacts may result in a decrease in the yield by up to -35% in some regions. Despite some uncertainties inherent to the current modelling assessment, the present study highlights the negative impacts of heatwaves on viticultural yields in the Douro region, which is critical information for stakeholders within the winemaking sector for planning suitable adaptation measures.

Impact of geographical location on the phenolic profile of minority varieties grown in Spain. II: red grapevines

Because terroir and cultivar are drivers of wine quality, is essential to investigate theirs effects on polyphenolic profile before promoting the implantation of a red minority variety in a specific area. This work, included in MINORVIN project, focuses in the polyphenolic profile of 7 red grapevines minority varieties of Vitis vinifera L. (Morate, Sanguina, Santafe, Terriza Tinta Jeromo Tortozona Tinta) and Tempranillo) from six typical viticulture Spanish areas: Aragón (A1), Cataluña (A2), Castilla la Mancha (A3), Castilla –León (A4), Madrid (A5) and Navarra (A6) of 2020 season. Polyphenolic substances were extracted from grapes. 35 compounds were identified and quantified (mg subtance/kg fresh berry) by HPLC and grouped in anthocyanins (ANT) flavanols (FLAVA), flavonols (FLAVO), hydroxycinnamic (AH), benzoic (BA) acids and stilbenes (ST). Antioxidant activity (AA, mmol TE /g fresh berry) was determined by DPPH method. The results were submitted to a two-way ANOVA to investigate the influence of variety, area and their interaction for each polyphenolic family and cluster analysis was used to construct hierarchical dendrograms, searching the natural groupings among the samples. Sanguina (A3) had the most of total polyphenols while Tempranillo (A5) those of ANT. Sanguina (A2) and (A3) reached the highest values of FLAVO, FLAVA and AA. These two last samples had also the maximum of AA. The effect cultivar and area were significant for all polyphenolic families analyzed. A high variability due to variety (>50%) was observed in FLAVA and the maximum value of variability due to growing area was detected in AA (86.41%), ANT and FLAVO (51%); the interaction variety*zone was significant only for ANT, FLAVO, EST and AA. Finally, dendrograms presented five cluster: i) Sanguina (A2); ii) Sanguina (A3); iii) Tempranillo (A5); iv) Tempranillo (A3); Terriza (A3,A5), Morate (A5,A6); v) Santafé (A1,A6); Tortozona tinta (A1,A3,A6); Tinta Jeromo (A3,A4).

Current climate change in the Oplenac wine-growing district (Serbia)

Serbian autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka (for white wines) and Prokupac (for rosé and red wines) are the primary representatives of typical characteristics of wines and terroir of numerous wine-growing areas in Serbia. In the past, these varieties were the leading vine varieties, however, as the result of globalization of winemaking and the trend of consumption of wines from widely prevalent vine varieties, they were replaced by introduced international varieties. Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties are characterized by later time of grape ripening, and relative sensitivity to low temperatures. Climate conditions can be a restrictive factor for production of high-quality grapes and wine and for the spatial spreading of these varieties in hilly continental wine-growing areas.
This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of changes of main climate parameters, in particular, analysis of viticultural bioclimatic indices that were determined for the purposes of viticulture zoning of wine-growing areas in the period 1961-2010, and those same parameters determined for the current, that is, referential climate period (1988-2017). Results of the research, that is, analysis of climate changes indicate that the majority of examined climate parameters in the Oplenac wine-growing district improved from the perspective of Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties. These studies of climate conditions indicate that changes of analyzed climate parameters, that is, bioclimatic indices will be favorable for cultivation of varieties with later grape ripening times and those more sensitive to low temperatures, such as the autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka and Prokupac, therefore, it is recommended to producers to more actively plant vineyards with these varieties in the territory of the Oplenac wine-growing district.

Grapevine yield-gap: identification of environmental limitations by soil and climate zoning in Languedoc-Roussillon region (south of France)

Grapevine yield has been historically overlooked, assuming a strong trade-off between grape yield and wine quality. At present, menaced by climate change, many vineyards in Southern France are far from the quality label threshold, becoming grapevine yield-gaps a major subject of concern. Although yield-gaps are well studied in arable crops, we know very little about grapevine yield-gaps. In the present study, we analysed the environmental component of grapevine yield-gaps linked to climate and soil resources in the Languedoc Roussillon. We used SAFRAN data and IGP Pays d’Oc wine yields from 2010 to 2018. We selected climate and soil indicators proving to have a significant effect on average wine yield-gaps at the municipality scale. The most significant factors of grapevine yield were the Soil Available Water Capacity; followed by the Huglin Index and the Climatic Dryness Index. The Days of Frost; the Soil pH; and the Very Hot Days were also significant. Then, we clustered geographical zones presenting similar indicators, facilitating the identification of resources yield-gaps. We discussed the number of zones with the experts of IGP Pays d’Oc label, obtaining 7 zones with similar limitations for grapevine yield. Finally, we analysed the main resources causing yield-gaps and the grapevine varieties planted on each zone. Mapping grapevine resource yield-gaps are the first stage for understanding grapevine yield-gaps at the regional scale.