Terroir 2020 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Unprecedented rainfall in northern Portugal

Unprecedented rainfall in northern Portugal

Abstract

Aim: Climate is arguably one of the most important factors determining the quality of wine from any given grapevine variety. High rainfall during spring can promote growth of the vines but increases the risk of fungal disease, while vineyard operations can be disrupted, as machinery may be prevented from getting in the vineyard owing to muddy soils. Conversely, high rainfall during harvest time (August to October) also bears the potential for severe operational disruption and heavy economic losses. To date, the probability of unprecedented rainfall amounts in spring and the harvest season has not been assessed over northern Portugal, specifically the three wine-growing regions of Vinho Verde, Trás-os-Montes and Porto and Douro DOC. In a situation of higher climatic variability, establishing the probable limits of rainfall variation during critical moments of the vine growth cycle will allow for better readiness of farmers as well as higher resilience of the whole value chain.

Methods and Results: Observed rainfall totals for northern Portugal were extracted from version 21 of the E-OBS dataset. Monthly rainfall totals were archived from a series of 16 month-long hindcasts produced with the Met Office’s decadal prediction system DePreSys3. These hindcasts begin in November of each year, corresponding to the start of each viticultural campaign. The hindcasts are produced from 1980 to 2017, when satellite data are available for model initialisation. Forty ensemble members are available for each start time, providing 1520 (38 × 40) simulations of spring and late summer rainfall totals. The hindcast and observed rainfall totals are considered indistinguishable if the mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis from the observations are within the respective 2.5th–97.5th percentile ranges from 10,000 model bootstraps. It was necessary to shift the modelled mean for spring rainfall owing to a wet bias in the simulations. The model results showed there was a probability of 0.02 ± 0.01 of an unprecedented rainfall event in spring and summer. However, the chance of another year with an exceptionally wet spring and late summer (as happened in 1993) is extremely small.

Conclusions: 

Rainfall totals in northern Portugal over the past 38 years have been very high in a few years, but higher values are possible in the current climate. The chance of another year similar to 1993, when both seasons were exceptionally wet, is very low. The uncertainty in extreme rainfall estimates is considerably reduced when the modelled data are used. A year with rainfall equal to the highest observed amounts in one of these two seasons could be expected to occur just once in the next 30-100 years.

Significance and Impact of the Study: This study is the first to assess the probability of unprecedented rainfall extremes over northern Portugal, allowing for a better estimate of the inherent risk. The results help inform the need for costly adaptation investments, such as better availability of spraying machinery and labour, high-gauge drainage, landslide controls or even abandonment of exposed vineyard areas.

DOI:

Publication date: March 17, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2020

Type: Video

Authors

Michael G. Sanderson1*, Marta Teixeira2, Natacha Fontes2, Sara Silva2, António Graça2

1Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
2Sogrape Vinhos, S.A., Aldeia nova, 4430-809 Avintes, Portugal

Contact the author

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2020

Citation

Related articles…

Modelling vine water stress during a critical period and potential yield reduction rate in European wine regions: a retrospective analysis

Most European vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where seasonal water deficit has become increasingly important. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is seldomly thoroughly evaluated. Therefore, we aim to quantify the flowering-veraison water stress levels using Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) over 1986–2015 for important European wine regions, and to assess the respective potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR). Additionally, we also investigate whether an advanced flowering-veraison phase may help alleviating the water stress with improved yield. A process-based grapevine model STICS is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for flowering and veraison stages using observed data at 38 locations with 10 different grapevine varieties. Subsequently, the model is being implemented at the regional level, considering site-specific calibration results and gridded climate and soil datasets. The findings suggest wine regions with stronger flowering-veraison CWSI tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI<0.5) and a negligible-to-moderate YLR (<30%), whereas the latter possesses severe-to-extreme CWSI (>0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. An advanced flowering-veraison phase may have benefited from cooler temperatures and a higher fraction of spring precipitation in wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, resulting in alleviated CWSI and moderate reductions of YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent alleviations of YLR are also found, possibly because of shifted phase towards a cooler growing season with reduced evaporative demands. Overall, such a retrospective analysis might provide new insights towards better management of seasonal water deficit for conventionally vulnerable Mediterranean wine regions, but also for relatively cooler and wetter Central European regions.

Climate ethnography and wine environmental futures

Globalisation and climate change have radically transformed world wine production upsetting the established order of wine ecologies. Ecological risks and the future of traditional agricultural systems are widely debated in anthropology, but very little is understood of the particular challenges posed by climate change to viticulture which is seen by many as the canary in the coalmine of global agriculture. Moreover, wine as a globalised embedded commodity provides a particularly telling example for the study of climate change having already attracted early scientific attention. Studies of climate change in viticulture have focused primarily on the production of systematic models of adaptation and vulnerability, while the human and cultural factors, which are key to adaptation and sustainable futures, are largely missing. Climate experts have been unanimous in recognising the urgent need for a better understanding of the complex dynamics that shape how climate change is experienced and responded to by human systems. Yet this call has not yet been addressed. Climate ethnography, coined by the anthropologist Susan Crate (2011), aims to bridge this growing disjuncture between climate science and everyday life through the exploration of the social meaning of climate change. It seeks to investigate the confrontation of its social salience in different locations and under different environmental guises (Goodman 2018: 340). By understanding how wine producers make sense of the world (and the environment) and act in it, it proposes to focus on the co-production of interdisciplinary knowledge by identifying and foreshadowing problems (Goodman 2018: 342; Goodman & Marshall 2018). It seeks to offer an original, transformative and contrasted perspective to climate change scenarios by investigating human agency -individual or collective- in all its social, political and cultural diversity. An anthropological approach founded on detailed ethnographies of wine production is ideally placed to address economic, social and cultural disruptions caused by the emergence of these new environmental challenges. Indeed, the community of experts in environmental change have recently called for research that will encompass the human dimension and for more broad-based, integrated through interdisciplinarity, useful knowledge (Castree & al 2014). My paper seeks to engage with climate ethnography and discuss what it brings to the study of wine environmental futures while exploring the limitations of the anthropological environmental approach.

The combined effects of climate, soils, and deficit irrigation on yield and quality of Touriga Nacional under high atmospheric demand in the Douro Region

Global warming is one of the biggest environmental, social and economic threats in several viticultural regions. In the Douro Valley, changes are expected in the coming years, namely an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation. These changes are likely to have consequences for the production and quality of wine.
The aim of this study was to explore the effects of different soil characteristics combined with several deficit irrigation strategies, managed throughout ETc references and predawn leaf water potentials thresholds, on physiology, yield, and qualitative attributes on the Touriga Nacional variety under years of mild to severe water and heat stress.
The studies were conducted over seven years (2015 to 2021) in two plots of a commercial vineyard located at Quinta do Ataíde (Symington Family Estates) planted in 2011 and 2014 at 170 meters elevation, growing under three water regimes: non-irrigated (NI) and two deficit irrigation strategies (30% and 60% ETc) assessed weekly by Ψpd. The site has an annual rainfall below 500 mm, with high atmospheric demand. Climate data was collected from a weather station, located on site. Berry ripening was followed weekly for fruit analysis. At harvest, yield, vigour and pruning weight per vine were determined from 90 vines by treatment. Each season at veraison the NDVI Index was accessed by a drone. The soils physic-chemistry in the experimental blocs were analysed and grouped by SWHC. Delta C-13 analyses were also performed per treatment in two years.Irrigation had a positive effect on yield per vine, mostly due to an increase in berry and cluster weight, and fertility index through the years. A significant increase in sugar content, colour and phenols was observed with deficit irrigation in some years, but vine vigour related to soil characteristics had by far the greatest impact on quality.

VineyardFACE: Investigation of a moderate (+20%) increase of ambient CO2 level on berry ripening dynamics and fruit composition

Climate change and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is a concern for agriculture, including viticulture. Studies on elevated carbon dioxide have already been on grapevines, mainly taking place in greenhouses using potted plants or using field grown vines under higher CO2 enrichment, i.e. >650 ppm. The VineyardFACE, located at Hochschule Geisenheim University, is an open field Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experimental set-up designed to study the effects of elevated carbon dioxide using field grown vines (Vitis vinifera L. cvs. Riesling and Cabernet Sauvignon). As the carbon dioxide fumigation started in 2014, the long term effects of elevated carbon dioxide treatment can be investigated on berry ripening parameters and fruit metabolic composition.
The present study aims to investigate the effect on fruit composition under a moderate increase (+20%; eCO2) of carbon dioxide concentration, as predicted for 2050 on both Riesling and Cabernet Sauvignon. Berry composition was determined for primary (sugars, organic acids, amino acids) and secondary metabolites (anthocyanins). Special focus was given on monitoring of berry diameter and ripening rates throughout three growing seasons. Compared to previous results of the early adaptative phase of the vines [1], our results show little effect of eCO2 treatment on primary metabolites composition in berries. However, total anthocyanins concentration in berry skin was lower for eCO2 treatment in 2020, although the ratio between anthocyanins derivatives did not differ.
[1] Wohlfahrt Y., Tittmann S., Schmidt D., Rauhut D., Honermeier B., Stoll M. (2020) The effect of elevated CO2 on berry development and bunch structure of Vitis vinifera L. cvs. Riesling and Cabernet Sauvignon. Applied Science Basel 10: 2486

Understanding graft union formation by using metabolomic and transcriptomic approaches during the first days after grafting in grapevine

Since the arrival of Phyloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifolia) in Europe at the end of the 19th century, grafting has become essential to cultivate Vitis vinifera. Today, grafting provides not only resistance to this aphid, but it used to adapt the cultivars according to the type of soil, environment, or grape production requirements by using a panel of rootstocks. As part of vineyard decline, it is often mentioned the importance of producing quality grafted grapevine to improve vineyard longevity, but, to our knowledge, no study has been able to demonstrate that grafting has a role in this context. However, some scion/rootstock combinations are considered as incompatible due to poor graft union formation and subsequently high plant mortality soon after grafting. In a context of climate change where the creation of new cultivars and rootstocks is at the centre of research, the ability of new cultivars to be grafted is therefore essential. The early identification of graft incompatibility could allow the selection of non-viable plants before planting and would have a beneficial impact on research and development in the nursery sector. For this reason, our studies have focused on the identification of metabolic and transcriptomic markers of poor grafting success during the first days/week after grafting; we have identified some correlations between some specialized metabolites, especially stilbenes, and grafting success, as well as an accumulation of some amino acids in the incompatible combination. The study of the metabolome and the transcriptome allowed us to understand and characterise the processes involved during graft union formation.