Enoforum 2021
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Enoforum Web 9 Enoforum Web Conference 2021 9 A new AI-based system for early and accurate vineyard yield forecasting

A new AI-based system for early and accurate vineyard yield forecasting

Abstract

Vineyard yield forecasting is a key issue for vintage scheduling and optimization of winemaking operations. High errors in yield forecasting can be found in the wine industry, mainly due to the high spatial variability in vineyards, strong dependency on historical yield data, insufficient use of agroclimatic data and inadequate sampling methods. Today, errors can reach values within the range of 20%-30% per block. Thus, improved methodologies for early and accurate vineyard yield forecasting are needed. We proposed a new system for vineyard yield forecasting that integrates: systematic cluster counting, sampling and weight measurement; key agroclimatic parameters; vineyards spatial variability and the use of forecasting models based on artificial intelligence (AI). We carried out trials in high yield Cabernet Sauvignon (CS) vineyards located in Maule Valley (Chile), during seasons 2019 and 2020. We covered 13 blocks (66 ha) and two trellis systems (pergola and free-cordon). We characterized the spatial variability of blocks using Sentinel 2 images and NDVI analysis. We defined sampling units based on NDVI levels and we counted and sampled grape clusters and measured their weights during fruit-set and veraison. Key agroclimatic data were taken from public databases and we collected yield historical data from 2017 onwards. We trained and applied machine-learning models based on MARS, Random Forest and SVR algorithms. For the 2020 trial, in veraison, we obtained an average error of 7.6% per block against a 10.1% given by the traditional method (error is 23.5% for all the CS grapes of the company). Time dedicated to counting and sampling was significantly lower. As a result, we obtained a cost-efficient, early and accurate new system for vineyard yield forecasting.

DOI:

Publication date: April 23, 2021

Issue: Enoforum 2021

Type: Article

Authors

Cuevas-Valenzuela, José1*; Caris-Maldonado, Carlos1; Reyes-Suárez, José Antonio2; González-Rojas, Álvaro1

1 Center for Research and Innovation (CRI) Viña Concha y Toro, Ruta k-650 km 10, Pencahue, Maule, Chile
2 Bioinformatics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de Talca, Campus Lircay, Talca, Maule, Chile

Contact the author

Tags

Enoforum 2021 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

New highlights of polyphenols from red wine to counteract ocular degenerative diseases

More recently, studies have shown that polyphenols could also prevent or improve vision in patients with ocular diseases and especially age-related macular degeneration (AMD) which is an eye disease characterized by damage to the central part of the retina, the macula, and that affects millions of people worldwide. Despite therapeutic advances thanks to the use of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), many resistance mechanisms have been found to accentuate the visual deficit.
Read More

Unravelling regional typicality of Australian premium Shiraz through an untargeted metabolomics approach

Aims: The current study seeks to demonstrate that premium Shiraz wines from different Australian geographic indications (GI) can be distinguished by their volatile compound composition. 

Read More

Contribution of viticultural and oenological factors to the aromatic potential of white Colombard wines from the south west of France Gascony vineyard

The aim of this work is to determine the influence of viticultural and oenological factors to the aromatic potential of white wines from Colombard variety in the south west of France Gascony vineyard.

Read More

Impact of cover crop in vineyard on the musts volatile profile of Vitis vinifera L. Cv Syrah

rape aromatic characteristics are very important for the production of quality wines. The concentrations of volatile compounds in grape berries from vines with cover crops have been scarcely studied.

Read More

Current climate change in the Oplenac wine-growing district (Serbia)

Serbian autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka (for white wines) and Prokupac (for rosé and red wines) are the primary representatives of typical characteristics of wines and terroir of numerous wine-growing areas in Serbia. In the past, these varieties were the leading vine varieties, however, as the result of globalization of winemaking and the trend of consumption of wines from widely prevalent vine varieties, they were replaced by introduced international varieties. Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties are characterized by later time of grape ripening, and relative sensitivity to low temperatures. Climate conditions can be a restrictive factor for production of high-quality grapes and wine and for the spatial spreading of these varieties in hilly continental wine-growing areas.
This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of changes of main climate parameters, in particular, analysis of viticultural bioclimatic indices that were determined for the purposes of viticulture zoning of wine-growing areas in the period 1961-2010, and those same parameters determined for the current, that is, referential climate period (1988-2017). Results of the research, that is, analysis of climate changes indicate that the majority of examined climate parameters in the Oplenac wine-growing district improved from the perspective of Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties. These studies of climate conditions indicate that changes of analyzed climate parameters, that is, bioclimatic indices will be favorable for cultivation of varieties with later grape ripening times and those more sensitive to low temperatures, such as the autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka and Prokupac, therefore, it is recommended to producers to more actively plant vineyards with these varieties in the territory of the Oplenac wine-growing district.

Read More