Enoforum 2021
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Enoforum Web 9 Enoforum Web Conference 2021 9 A new AI-based system for early and accurate vineyard yield forecasting

A new AI-based system for early and accurate vineyard yield forecasting

Abstract

Vineyard yield forecasting is a key issue for vintage scheduling and optimization of winemaking operations. High errors in yield forecasting can be found in the wine industry, mainly due to the high spatial variability in vineyards, strong dependency on historical yield data, insufficient use of agroclimatic data and inadequate sampling methods. Today, errors can reach values within the range of 20%-30% per block. Thus, improved methodologies for early and accurate vineyard yield forecasting are needed. We proposed a new system for vineyard yield forecasting that integrates: systematic cluster counting, sampling and weight measurement; key agroclimatic parameters; vineyards spatial variability and the use of forecasting models based on artificial intelligence (AI). We carried out trials in high yield Cabernet Sauvignon (CS) vineyards located in Maule Valley (Chile), during seasons 2019 and 2020. We covered 13 blocks (66 ha) and two trellis systems (pergola and free-cordon). We characterized the spatial variability of blocks using Sentinel 2 images and NDVI analysis. We defined sampling units based on NDVI levels and we counted and sampled grape clusters and measured their weights during fruit-set and veraison. Key agroclimatic data were taken from public databases and we collected yield historical data from 2017 onwards. We trained and applied machine-learning models based on MARS, Random Forest and SVR algorithms. For the 2020 trial, in veraison, we obtained an average error of 7.6% per block against a 10.1% given by the traditional method (error is 23.5% for all the CS grapes of the company). Time dedicated to counting and sampling was significantly lower. As a result, we obtained a cost-efficient, early and accurate new system for vineyard yield forecasting.

DOI:

Publication date: April 23, 2021

Issue: Enoforum 2021

Type: Article

Authors

Cuevas-Valenzuela, José1*; Caris-Maldonado, Carlos1; Reyes-Suárez, José Antonio2; González-Rojas, Álvaro1

1 Center for Research and Innovation (CRI) Viña Concha y Toro, Ruta k-650 km 10, Pencahue, Maule, Chile
2 Bioinformatics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de Talca, Campus Lircay, Talca, Maule, Chile

Contact the author

Tags

Enoforum 2021 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

The limonene-derived mint aroma compounds in red wines. Recent advances on analytical, chemical aspects and sensory aspects

In recent years, the ageing bouquet of red Bordeaux wines has been partially unveiled by a chemical and sensory point of view1–3. Minty and fresh notes were found to play a key role in the definition of this complex concept, moreover the freshness dimension in fine aged red wines plays an important role in typicity judgement by wine professionals

Exploiting somaclonal variability to increase drought stress tolerance in grapevine 

Global warming has enhanced the frequency and severity of drought events, hence calling for a better management of water resources in the vineyard and for an improvement of breeding platforms. Somatic embryogenesis (SE) (i.e. the initiation of embryos from somatic tissues) can spontaneously generate new genetic variability, which results from genetic mutations, changes in epigenetic marks, or phenotypic alterations.
This study was tailored to test whether vines in vitro regenerated through SE (i.e. somaclones), can tolerate water deprivation better than the mother plant.

Phenolic extraction during fermentation as affected by ripeness level of Syrah/R99 grapes

L’extraction phénolique au cours de la fermentation à partir de vendanges de différents degrees de maturité du cépage Syrah/R99 a été etudiée. Cette travail fait parti d’un projet focalisé sur la qualité du raisin et des vins obtenus au cours du millésime 2002. Les vignes sont situées à Stellenbosch (Afrique du Sud) sur un sol Glenrose

Egg allergens in wine. Validation of a new automated method for ovalbumin quantification

Ovalbumin (ova), a natural clarifying protein, is particularly suitable for clarifying red wines. It helps improve the tannic and polyphenolic stability of the wine by removing the most astringent tannins and contributing to soften and refine the structure. Ova binds to suspended particles, proteins, polysaccharides, and, to a lesser extent, tannins through electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions, forming large complexes that can be removed from the wine through fining and/or filtration before bottling.

Understanding the complexity of grapevine winter physiology in the face of changing climate

The vast majority of our understanding of grapevine physiology is focused on the processes that occur during the growing season. Though not obvious, winter physiological changes are dynamic and complex, and have great influence on the survival and phenology of grapevines. In cool and cold climates, winter temperatures are a constant threat to vine survival. Additionally, as climate changes, grapevine production is moving toward more traditionally cool and cold climates, either latitudinal or altitudinal in location. Our research focuses on understanding how grapevines navigate winter physiological changes and how temperature impacts aspects of cold hardiness and dormancy. Through these studies, we have gained keen insight into the connections between winter temperature, maximum cold haridness, and budbreak phenology, that can be used to develop prediction models for viticulture in a changing climate.