The impact of global warming on Ontario’s icewine industry

Abstract

Ontario’s wine regions lie at the climatic margins of commercial viticulture owing to their cold winters and short cool growing season. The gradual warming of northern latitudes projected under a human-induced climate change scenario could bring mixed benefits to these wine regions. On the one hand, climate change could moderate the severity of winter temperatures and extend the growing season and on the other, it could be jeopardize the production of internationally renowned icewines for which Canada is famous. This paper examines the trends in winter temperatures over the last forty years for the Niagara Peninsula wine region in Ontario. The study analyzes the occurrences of temperatures ≤ -8o C in the months of November, December, January and February in which the frozen grapes are normally picked. The results of trend analysis showed a high degree of variability along with a weak declining trend in the number of picking days. Two major risks to icewine grapes are prolonged warm and wet conditions that could lead to rot and secondly, destruction of the crop by bird predators. The study also discussed the potential use of weather contracts to mitigate these risks.

DOI:

Publication date: November 22, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

D. Cyr (1) and T.B. Shaw (2)

(1) Department of Finance, Operations and Information Systems & Cool Climate Oenology and Viticulture Institute, Brock University, St. Catharines Ontario, Canada, L2S 3A1
(2) Department of Geography & Cool Climate Oenology and Viticulture Institute, Brock University, St. Catharines Ontario, Canada, L2S 3A1

Contact the author

Keywords

climate change, Ontario, icewine, impacts, weather contracts

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

1H-NMR-based Metabolomics to assess the impact of soil type on the chemical composition of Mediterranean red wines

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of different soil types on the chemical composition of Mediterranean red wines, through untargeted and targeted 1H-NMR metabolomics. One milliliter of raw wine was analyzed by means of a Bruker Avance II 400 spectrometer operating at 400.15 MHz. The spectra were recorded by applying the NOESYGPPS1D pulse sequency, to achieve water and ethanol signals suppression. No modification of the pH was performed to avoid any chemical alteration of the matrix. The generation of input variables for untargeted analysis was done via bucketing the spectra. The resulting dataset was preprocessed prior to perform unsupervised PCA, by means of MetaboAnalyst web-based tool suite. The identification of compounds for the targeted analysis was performed by comparison to pure compounds spectra by means of SMA plug-in of MNova 14.2.3 software. The dataset containing the concentrations (%) of identified compounds was subjected to one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to highlight significant differences among the wines. The untargeted analysis, carried out through the PCA, revealed a clear differentiation among the wines. The fragments of the spectra contributing mostly to the separation were attributed to flavonoids, aroma compounds and amino acids. The targeted analysis leaded to the identification of 68 compounds, whose concentrations were significant different among the wines. The results were related to soils physical-chemical analysis and showed that: 1) high concentrations of flavan-3-ols and flavonols are correlated with high clay content in soils; 2) high concentrations of anthocyanins, amino acids, and aroma compounds are correlated with neutral and moderately alkaline soil pH; 3) low concentrations of flavonoids and aroma compounds are correlated with high soil organic matter content and acidic pH. The 1H-NMR metabolomic analysis proved to be an excellent tool to discriminate between wines originating from grapes grown on different soil types and revealed that soils in the Mediterranean area exert a strong impact on the chemical composition of the wines.

A better understanding of the climate effect on anthocyanin accumulation in grapes using a machine learning approach

The current climate changes are directly threatening the balance of the vineyard at harvest time. The maturation period of the grapes is shifted to the middle of the summer, at a time when radiation and air temperature are at their maximum. In this context, the implementation of corrective practices becomes problematic. Unfortunately, our knowledge of the climate effect on the quality of different grape varieties remains very incomplete to guide these choices. During the Innovine project, original experiments were carried out on Syrah to study the combined effects of normal or high air temperature and varying degrees of exposure of the berries to the sun. Berries subjected to these different conditions were sampled and analyzed throughout the maturation period. Several quality characteristics were determined, including anthocyanin content. The objective of the experiments was to investigate which climatic determinants were most important for anthocyanin accumulation in the berries. Temperature and irradiance data, observed over time with a very thin discretization step, are called functional data in statistics. We developed the procedure SpiceFP (Sparse and Structured Procedure to Identify Combined Effects of Functional Predictors) to explain the variations of a scalar response variable (a grape berry quality variable for example) by two or three functional predictors (as temperature and irradiance) in a context of joint influence of these predictors. Particular attention was paid to the interpretability of the results. Analysis of the data using SpiceFP identified a negative impact of morning combinations of low irradiance (lower than about 100 μmol m−2 s−1 or 45 μmol m−2 s−1 depending on the advanced-delayed state of the berries) and high temperature (higher than 25oC). A slight difference associated with overnight temperature occurred between these effects identified in the morning.

From a local to an international scale: sensory benchmarking of PDO wines. Quincy and Reuilly PDO wines (Sauvignon blanc) as a case study (France)

In a collective marketing strategy, the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) can be used as a quality indicator. To highlight terroir specificities, it is useful to know how the wines are positioned on the local, national or international market from a sensory point of view. This is especially true for a comparison of varietal wines (e.g. Sauvignon blanc). We focus on the case of two closed Loire Valley PDO (France): Quincy and Reuilly. Three distinct tastings were organized. Firstly, at the local level comparing the 2 PDO (11 and 9 wines, 17 professional assessors); secondly at a regional level adding 3 closed PDO: Menetou-Salon, Sancerre and Pouilly-Fumé (3 wines per PDO, 16 assessors) and thirdly at an international level comparing these 5 PDO with Sauvignon Blanc wines coming from South Africa, New Zealand and Chile (1 to 3 wines per PDO, 19 assessors). All the wines were from the 2019 vintage and were considered to have a traditional elaboration process without contact with oak. A sensory descriptive analysis was performed using an aroma wheel allowing to combine a Check-All-That-Apply methodology, often used in sensory benchmarking, with a hierarchical structuration of the attributes. The aim is to facilitate data acquisition in a professional context without common training, to consider the hierarchical relationships among the attributes during the data analysis and to be able to characterize wines with a large range of sensorial variability. We use univariate, multivariate and clustering analyses. Similarities and differences between Quincy and Reuilly PDO wines and other Sauvignon blanc wines were identified. Specific attributes can distinguish the two PDO and different proximities exist with other local PDO, while clear differences were observed compared to international wines. Our study contributes to propose and discuss a method to do a wine sensory benchmarking highlighting sensory specificities linked to origin.

Assessment of climate change impacts on water needs and growing cycle on grapevine in three DOs of NE Spain

This study assessed the suitability of grapevine growing in three DOs (Empordà, Pla de Bages and Penedès) of Catalonia (NE Spain) over the 21st century. For this purpose, an estimation of water needs and agroclimatic and phenological indicators was made. Climate change impacts were estimated at 1 km pixel resolution using temperature and precipitation projections from several general circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and RCP 8.5 (worst-case scenario). Potential crop evapotranspiration (following FAO procedure) and a daily water balance considering soil water holding capacity were used to estimate actual evapotranspiration of vines and, finally, water needs. Dynamics would be similar in the three DOs studied although the magnitude of impact differs. Water needs would be 2 and 3 times greater (ranging from 0 to more than 1500 m3/ha) than current water needs at both climate change scenarios. Moreover, blooming date would advance from 3 to 6 weeks, harvest date from 1 to 2.5 months, resulting in growing cycles from 10 to 80 days shorter. It should also be noted that frost risk would decrease from 6 to 76%, the number of days with temperatures above 30ºC during ripening would rise from 48 to 500% and tropical nights (minimum temperature >20ºC) at ripening would increase from 28 to 150%, depending on the scenario and the DOs. The impacts of climate change in the three DOs could result in significant limitations for grapevine cultivation and wine production if adaptive strategies are not applied. This result could serve as a basis for the design of specific and particular adaptation strategies to improve and maintain vineyards in the DOs studied and could be extrapolated to similar DOs and regions.

Using δ13C and hydroscapes as a tool for discriminating cultivar specific drought response

Measurement of carbon isotope discrimination in berry juice sugars at maturity (δ13C) provides an integrated assessment of water use efficiency (WUE) during the period of berry ripening, and when collected over multiple seasons can be used as an indication of drought stress response. Berry juice δ13C measurements were carried out on 48 different varieties planted in a common garden experiment in Bordeaux, France from 2014 through 2021 and were paired with midday and predawn leaf water potential measurements on the same vines in a subset of six varieties. The aim was to discriminate a large panel of varieties based on their stomatal behaviour and potentially identify hydraulic traits characterizing drought tolerance by comparing δ13C and hydroscapes (the visualisation of plant stomatal behaviour as a response to predawn water potential). Cluster analysis found that δ13C values are likely affected by the differing phenology of each variety, resulting in berry ripening of different varieties taking place under different stress conditions within the same year. We accounted for these phenological differences and found that cluster analysis based on specific δ13C metrics created a classification of varieties that corresponds well to our current empirical understanding of their relative drought tolerances. In addition, we analysed the water potential regulation of the subset of six varieties (using the hydroscape approach) and found that it was well correlated with some δ13C metrics. Surprisingly, a variety’s water potential regulation (specifically its minimum critical leaf water potential under water deficit) was strongly correlated to δ13C values under well-watered conditions, suggesting that base WUE may have a stronger impact on drought tolerance than WUE under water deficit. These results give strong insights on the innate WUE of a very large panel of varieties and suggest that studies of drought tolerance should include traits expressed under non-limiting conditions.