Heatwaves and grapevine yield in the Douro region, crop model simulations

Climate is the major factor influencing the dynamics of the vegetative cycle and can determine the timing of phenological periods. Knowledge of the phenology of varieties, their chronological duration, and thermal requirements, allows not only for the better management of interventions in the vineyard, but also to predict the varieties’ behaviour in a scenario of climate change, giving the wine producer the possibility of selecting the grape varieties that are best adapted to the climatic conditions of a certain terroir. In 2014, Symington Family Estates, Vinhos, established two grape variety libraries in two different places with distinctive climate conditions (Douro Superior, and Cima Corgo), with the commitment of contributing to a deeper agronomic and oenological understanding of some grape varieties, in hot climate conditions. In these research vineyards are represented local varieties that are important in the regional and national viticulture, but also others that have over time been forgotten — as well as five international reference cultivars. From 2017 to 2021, phenological observations have been made three times a week, following a defined protocol, to determine the average dates of budbreak, flowering and veraison. With the climate data of each location, the thermal requirements of each variety and the chronological duration of each phase have been calculated. During maturation, berry samples have been gathered weekly to study the dynamics of sugar accumulation, between other parameters. The data was analysed applying phenological and sugar accumulation models available in literature. The results obtained show significant differences between the varieties over several parameters, from the chronological duration and thermal requirements to complete the various stages of development, to the differences between the two locations, confirming the influence of the climate on phenology and the stages of maturation, in these specific conditions.

Excessive fertilization of the vineyard leads to low quality grapes, increased costs and a negative impact on the environment. In order to establish an integrated management system aimed at a sustainable fertilization of the vineyards, nutritional reference levels were established. For this purpose, 30 representative vineyards of the Albariño variety were studied, in which soil and petiole analyses were carried out for two years and grape yield and quality at harvest were measured. In both years of study, soil pH, calcium, sodium and cation exchange capacity were positively correlated with calcium content and negatively correlated with manganese in grapes. Irrigated vineyards had higher levels of aluminium in soil and lower levels of calcium in petiole. Climatic conditions were very different in the years of the study. The year 2019 was colder than usual, in 2020 there was a marked water stress with high summer temperatures. This resulted in medium-high acidity in grapes in 2019 and low acidity in 2020, with sugar levels being similar both years. A very marked decrease in must amino nitrogen was observed in 2020, with ammonia nitrogen remaining stable. The correlation of acidity and sugar values in grapes with soil and petiole analysis data made it possible to establish reference levels for the nutritional diagnosis of the Albariño variety in this region. Based on these results, an easy-to-use TIC application is currently being created for grapegrowers, aimed at improving the sustainability of the vineyard through reasoned fertilization. This study has now been extended to other Galician vine varieties.

In the context of LIFE project MIDMACC (LIFE18 CCA/ES/001099), several pilots have been installed in vineyards in mid mountain areas of Catalonia (NE Spain) to test well stablished agronomic practices to increase the adaptation of Mediterranean mid mountain to climate change. Soil water content (SWC) at three different depths (15, 30 and 45cm) was measured in continuum from August 2020. One pilot (WC) included a well-established green cover (GC), a new GC (NC) and a conventional soil management (CM, tilling+herbicides). NC presented an intermediate state between WC and CM, responding similarly to CM in autumn but quickly reaching similar SWC to WC, then following the same evolution till next spring, with CM presenting lower values along autumn and winter. Then vegetation activation decreased SWC in all plots, (much slower in CM, lacking GC). Sensibility to spring rains is again intermediate for NC, which joins SWC evolution of CM by the end of spring till next autumn. It is expected that NC will resemble WC more and more as its GC develops. In the pilot combining vine training (VSP vs Gobelet) and hillside management (slope vs terrace), no clear pattern could be related with these conditions. However, both terraces seem to be more sensitive to spring rains. A third pilot included new vineyards (7 and 1 year old). In the new vineyard (N), higher canopy development, a spontaneous green cover and row straw resulted in a slower SWC dynamic, not so sensitive to rains but conserving more soil water in spring and most of summer, even with presumably a higher water extraction by vines. In the newest vineyard (VN) the deepest sensor is still sensitive to rain events all over the year and SWC is always highest at this depth, revealing small water capture by vines.

Climate change challenges differently wine growing systems, depending on their biophysical, sociological and economic features. Therefore, there is a need to locally design and evaluate adaptation strategies combining several technical options, and considering the local opportunities and constraints (e.g. water access, wine typicity). The case study took place in a typical and heterogeneous Mediterranean vineyard of 1,500 ha in the South of France. We developed a participatory modeling approach to (1) conceptualize local climate change issues and design spatially explicit adaptation strategies with stakeholders, (2) numerically evaluate their effects on phenology, yield and irrigation needs under the high-emissions climate change scenario RCP 8.5, and (3) collectively discuss simulation results. We organized five sets of workshops, with in-between modeling phases. A process-based model was developed that allowed to evaluate the effects of six technical options (late varieties, irrigation, water saving by reducing canopy size, adjusting cover cropping, reducing density, and shading) with various distributions in the watershed, as well as vineyard relocation. Overall, we co-designed three adaptation strategies. Delay harvest strategy with late varieties showed little effects on decreasing air temperature during ripening. Water constraint limitation strategy would compensate for production losses if disruptive adaptations (e.g. reduced density) were adopted, and more land got access to irrigation. Relocation strategy would foster high premium wine production in the constrained mountainous areas where grapevine is less impacted by climate change. This research shows that a spatial distribution of technical changes gives room for adaptation to climate change, and that the collaboration with local stakeholders is a key to the identification of relevant adaptation. Further research should explore the potential of adaptation strategies based on soil quality improvement and on water stress tolerant varieties.

The first demonstration of the interest of carbon isotope composition of sugars in grapevine, as an integrated indicator of vineyard water status, dates back to 2000 (Gaudillère et al., 1999; Van Leeuwen et al., 2001). Thanks to the isotopic discrimination of Carbon that takes place during plant photosynthesis, under hydric stress conditions, it is possible to accurately estimate the photosynthetic activity. Ever since, δ13C has been widely applied with success to zonation, terroir studies and vine physiology research, but is still not widely used by viticulturists. This is quite astonishing by considering the impact of global warming on viticulture and the need to improve water management, that would justify a widespread use of δ13C.
The lack of private laboratories proposing the analysis, the cost of the technology, as well as the long analytical delays, have been detrimental to its development. Some laboratories tried to overcome the analytical difficulties of isotopic analysis by using fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy, as a fast and cheap alternative to the official OIV method (IRMS). These claimed FTIR models have never been published or peer reviewed and cannot be considered robust. In this work, thanks to the recent acquisition of IRMS technology, new modern and robust applications of δ13C for viticulture are proposed. This includes the use of the analysis to make parcel separations at harvesting, the possibility to increase the precision of hydric stress cartography and the potential cost reduction when compared with Scholander pressure bomb analysis.