terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Temperature-based phenology modelling for the grapevine 

Temperature-based phenology modelling for the grapevine 

Abstract

Historical phenology records have indicated that advances in key developmental stages such as budburst, flowering and veraison are linked to increasing temperature caused by climate change. Using phenological models the timing of grapevine development in response to temperature can be characterized and projected in response to future climate scenarios.
We explore the development and use of grapevine phenological models and highlight several applications of models to characterize the timing of key stages of development of varieties, within and between regions, and the result of projections under different climate change scenarios. The following aspects were evaluated: (1) importance of defining modelling objectives, (2) an understanding of database characteristics and how this may influence modelling outcomes, (3) the accuracy of models compared to observations, (4) the influence of the quality of phenological observations on model development and (5) the importance of calibrating a maximum the varieties for specific models. The challenges of the different modelling approaches and strengths and limitations of the outputs are discussed, particularly in the context of climate change projections.
Combining the results of these separate approaches highlights the opportunities and limitations of different modelling solutions and how different modelling approaches are needed to understand how temperature influences grapevine development depending on objectives, and that tools are available to help us better evaluate the potential effects of climate change on grapevine development.

DOI:

Publication date: June 13, 2024

Issue: Open GPB 2024

Type: Poster

Authors

Amber K. Parker1*, Mike C.T. Trought1,2, Laure de Rességuier3, Cornelis van Leeuwen3, Elena Moltchanova4, Hervé Quénol5, Andrew Sturman6, Inaki Garcia de Cortazar Atauri7

1 Department of Wine, Food and Molecular Biosciences, PO Box 85084, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, Christchurch, New Zealand
2The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited (PFR), Marlborough Research Centre, New Zealand
3 EGFV, Univ. Bordeaux, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, INRAE, ISVV, F-33882 Villenave d’Ornon, France
4School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand
5 LETG-Rennes COSTEL, UMR 6554 CNRS, Université Rennes 2, Rennes, France
6 Centre for Atmospheric Research, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
7Agroclim, INRAE, Avignon, France

Contact the author*

Keywords

grapevine, phenology, temperature, climate change, modelling

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Open GPB | Open GPB 2024

Citation

Related articles…

Plastic cover film on table grapes from field to cold storage

Plastic film covering is a technique largely used in viticulture to protect table grapes vines from adverse weather conditions and to reduce the negative effects of grapevine fungi disease. Plastic film composition affects solar radiation income inside the covering with effects on sunlight wavelengths in relation to different absorbance and reflectance. The interaction of selected light ranges with vines could influence grape ripening and yield and consequently influence shelf life.

Impact of climate change on the aroma of red wines: a focus on dried fruit aromas

The volatile composition of grapes (free and bound forms) contributes greatly to the varietal aroma and quality of wines. Several agronomical parameters affect grapes composition and wine quality: maturity level at harvest, water status, and the intensity of sun exposure.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based protein modeling for the interpretation of grapevine genetic variants

Genetic variants known to produce single residue missense mutations have been associated with phenotypic traits of commercial interest in grapevine. This is the case of the K284N substitution in VviDXS1 associated with muscat aroma, or the R197L in VviAGL11 causing stenospermocarpic seedless grapes. The impact of such mutations on protein structure, stability, dynamics, interactions, or functional mechanism can be studied by computational methods, including our pyDock scoring, previously developed. For this, knowledge on the 3D structure of the protein and its complexes with other proteins and biomolecules is required, but such knowledge is not available for virtually none of the proteins and complexes in grapevine.

French wine sector facing climate change (part. 1): A national strategy built on a foresight and participatory approach

A foresight study was carried out by a group of experts from INRAE, universities, INAO and FranceAgriMer from 2014 as part of the multidisciplinary “laccave” project intended to anticipate climate change in the French wine industry. The initial objective was to initiate an interdisciplinary dialogue between researchers and to feed their questions in a more systemic way. The scenario development method made it possible to build possible futures for the wine sector in the face of climate change. It began by drafting four adaptation strategies, combining different possible intensities of innovation and relocation of the vineyard.

Geostatistical modelling of climate parameters as a first step in aiding producers determine suitable mitigation strategies in Langhe growing region

Introduction: Meso-climatic variation increases in hilly terrain, influenced by changes in elevation, slope gradient and slope aspect (Ferretti, 2021).