Integrating microclimate and crop models to assess vineyard responses to climate change

Abstract

Climate change is reshaping viticultural regions worldwide, altering temperature regimes, precipitation patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events. These shifts pose major challenges to grapevine phenology, yield, and wine quality, challenging alternative approaches that account for the fine-scale environmental heterogeneity within vineyards. This study integrates high-resolution microclimate modelling (10 m spatial resolution) with the STICS crop model to assess vineyard responses to both present and future climate conditions. Two Portuguese living-lab vineyards—Quinta do Bomfim in the Douro wine region and Herdade do Esporão in Alentejo—were selected as complementary test sites, representing steep, heterogeneous topography versus flat, homogeneous terrain. Hourly temperature and precipitation data from ERA5-Land were bias-corrected using a quantile-mapping approach and dynamically downscaled with the NicheMapR model, which simulates the energy and mass exchanges governing local air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and soil moisture. By incorporating slope, aspect, and shading effects, the model captures the strong microclimatic gradients. The resulting datasets were used as inputs for the STICS model to simulate grapevine growth, phenology, and yield under a historical baseline (1981–2010) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) following RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show consistent warming across both sites, with mean air temperature increases by late century. Phenological stages such as flowering, fruit filling, and physiological maturity are projected to advance by 10–25 days, leading to shortened growing cycles and increased risk of heat and water stress during ripening. Simulated yields declined by up to 30% under RCP 8.5, reflecting the compounded effects of high temperatures and reduced soil moisture availability. The coupled NicheMapR–STICS framework provides a scalable tool for designing adaptation strategies specific to site conditions. These include optimised irrigation scheduling, canopy and soil-cover management, altered row orientation, and the selection of more heat- and drought-tolerant cultivars. By resolving sub-vineyard climatic variability, this integrative approach bridges the gap between regional climate projections and practical decision-making, supporting a transition toward climate-resilient and sustainable viticulture.

References

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