Evaluating the economic effects of agrivoltaics in vineyards: A driver-based approach

Abstract

The integration of agrivoltaics (APV) in vineyards can reduce climate and production risks while also generating electricity. Although many studies examine the costs and revenues of solar power, long-term data on how different APV designs affect yield, quality, and vineyard operations remain scarce. This study quantifies the economic effects of agrivoltaic synergies in winegrowing using a transparent, data-lean approach. We build a driver-based model that compares several plots with different agrivoltaic designs to control plots. We then convert the observed differences into annual monetary values for plant protection, water and heat stress, extreme weather (late frost, hail, sunburn, Botrytis), yield, quality, and operability. We combine short-term data from a site in Geisenheim with published evidence and structured expert consultation to define conservative, most-likely, and optimistic ranges. We communicate uncertainty through clear, design-oriented scenarios (high-mounted, vertical, tracking systems) and a one-factor-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. Under explicit assumptions, the modeling indicates that electricity revenues and operational conditions are the main economic drivers. Accordingly, the choice of system design can largely determine profitability. Initial investment costs and the value of wine are additional major drivers. Potential synergies in plant protection, water management, and protection against extreme weather gain economic weight in higher-value sites and in harsh years. Early observations from a weather-affected year align with lower disease pressure and more stable yields, but they do not yet support precise effect sizes. Operability matters: designs that maintain machine access can reduce additional operating costs. The model provides decision-relevant benefit ranges across scenarios and clarifies which assumptions drive results. In conclusion, the driver-based method provides an objective and cautious assessment of the economic effects of agrivoltaics in vineyards despite limited time series. It helps early adopters choose designs that preserve mechanized vineyard operations, clarifying where on-site electricity use adds value and which operational changes to test next. Next, we will examine environmental impacts and the electricity side in more detail to better assess the economic opportunities of optimizing self-consumption in the wine sector.

References

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Trommsdorff, M., Hopf, M., Hörnle, O., Berwind, M., Schindele, S., & Wydra, K. (2023). Can synergies in agriculture through an integration of solar energy reduce the cost of agrivoltaics? An economic analysis in apple farming. Applied Energy, 350, 121619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121619

Wagner, M.; Lask, J.; Kiesel, A.; Lewandowski, I.; Weselek, A.; Högy, P.; Trommsdorff, M.; Schnaiker, M.-A.; Bauerle, A. Agrivoltaics: The Environmental Impacts of Combining Food Crop Cultivation and Solar Energy Generation. Agronomy 2023, 13, 299. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13020299