Climate change impact study based on grapevine phenology modelling

Abstract

In this work we present a joint model of calculation the budbreak and full bloom starting dates which considers the heat sums and allows reliable estimations for five white wine grape varieties (Chardonnay, Szürkebarát (Pinot gris), Pinot blanc, Riesling, Hárslevelű) and their clone varieties in Hungary (Chardonnay 75 and 96, Riesling 239, 378, 391 and 49, Hárslevelű P.41 and K.9., Pinot blanc 54, 55 and D55, Szürkebarát 34 and 52). The base lower and upper temperatures have been determined by optimization, above which (threshold temperature) the accumulation of daily means is most active, or alternatively, below which the daily means are most sensitively expressed in the phenology. The model has been extended to the calculation of the end of the rest period (endodormancy), by optimization as well. We determined the lower and upper base temperatures separately for the budbreak and full bloom starting dates such that the lowest (normalized) sum of squares error, the lowest average absolute and the lowest maximum error of predictions can be achieved. We determined the optimal (lower) base temperature as 6 °C and the optimal starting date as the 41st Julian day of the year for the budbreak. Moreover, we set 10,45 °C and 26 °C as lower and upper optimal base temperatures for full bloom. The joint model was then applied to study the impact of climate change on budbreak and full bloom starting dates based on RegCM3.1 (regional) climate model. We calculated the expected shifts of budbreak and full bloom and proved that the changes are significant.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

M. Ladányi (1), E. Hlaszny (2), Gy. Pernesz (3), Gy. Bisztray (2)

(1) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. of Mathematics and Informatics, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(2) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. Of Viticulture, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(3) Central Agricultural Office, Budapest, Hungary

Contact the authors

Keywords

budbreak, vegetation period, phenology model, biologically effective day degrees, full bloom, starting dates of phenological stages, Vitis vinifera L.

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Using multifactorial analysis to evaluate the contribution of terroir components to the oenological potential of grapes at harvest

The oenological potential of grapes at harvest depends on a combination of the major components of Terroir: the climate, the soil, the plant material, the training system and the crop management.

DNA and type of grain: which factor does better explain sensory differences of sessile and pedunculate oaks?

Sessile oak and pedunculate oak have shown several differences of interest for enological purposes. Tannic and aromatic composition among sessile oak or pedonculate oak has been well studied. Sessile oak is generally more aromatic than pedunculated, while the later is more tannic. This scientific point of view is rarely applied to classify oak in cooperages. Most coopers use the type of grain to distinguish wide and thin grain.

Study of the aromatic oxidation markers of Tempranillo long aged wines

The aromatic quality of wines after a long aging period in bottle is one of key points for oenologists. The objective of this work is to determine the main representative aromatic compounds found in long aged wines from D.O.Ca. Rioja. This study was made by 32 wines from 1971 to 2010 vintages. Sotolon, acetaldehyde, phenylacetaldehyde, 1,1,6-trimethyl-1,2-dihydronaptalene (TDN), β-damascenone, Y-decalactone and Y-dodecalactone were determined as the most important oxidation markers by GC-MS analysis. Moreover, sensory analysis using triangular tests were performed from wines with and without the addition of the mentioned compounds. Four different concentrations of each odorant were added, as individual compounds and as mixtures. The additions were ranged from values close to the reference odour thresholds up to high level concentrations. The most identified aroma was sotolon, which is commonly associated to curry and coffee liqueur aromatic notes. Other oxidative compounds were easily detected by panellists, such as Y-decalactone (peach compote), Y-dodecalactone (ripe fruit). The mixtures of the odorants were most easily detected than the individual compounds. It should be noted that acetaldehyde and phenylacetaldehyde were rarely perceived and distinguished.

Red wine oxidation study by accelerating ageing tests and electrochemical method

Red wines can undergo many undesirable changes during the winemaking process and storage, particularly oxidative degradation due to numerous atmospheric oxygen intakes. This spoilage can impact organoleptic properties and color stabilization but this impact depends on the wine composition. Phenolic compounds constitute primary targets to oxidation reactions

Evaluating the suitability of hyper- and multispectral imaging to detect endogenic diseases in grapevine

Endogenic diseases often arise from pathogens that exist within the plant tissue, including fungi, bacteria, and viruses, which can remain latent and then emerge under stress conditions or favorable environmental conditions, causing symptoms that weaken vines or can lead to plant death.