Modelling grape and wine quality through PLS Spline statistical method

Vintners Quality Alliance (VQA) Ontario, (Alliance de qualité Vintners) est responsable de l’administration et de l’imposition des normes en liaison avec la qualité du vin, l’appellation d’origine, les variétés de raisin et les méthodes de production. Des vins produits selon les règlements de VQA sont actuellement étiquetés de trois distinctes mais larges régions d’appellation

Blending wines from different grape varieties is often used in order to increase wine complexity and balance. Due to their popularity, several types of blends such as the Bordeaux blend, are protected by PDO legislation.

The cost-effectiveness of a winery requires constant cost control in order to ensure competitiveness on the wine market.

Viticulture is entangled with weather and climate. Therefore, areas currently suitable for grape production can be challenged by climate change. Winegrowers in Italy already experiences the effect of climate change, especially in the form of warmer growing season, more frequent drought periods, and increased frequency of weather extremes.
The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of climate variability and change on grape yield in Italy to provide winegrowers the information needed to make their business more sustainable and resilient to climate change. We computed a specific range of bioclimatic indices, selected by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), and correlated them to grape yield data. We have worked in collaboration with some wine consortiums in northern and central Italy, which provided grape yield data for our analysis.
Using climate variables from the E-OBS dataset we investigate how the bioclimatic indices changed in the past, and the impact of this change on grape productivity in the study areas. The climate impact on productivity is also investigated by using high-resolution convection-permitting models (CPMs – 2.2 horizontal resolution), with the purpose of estimating productivity in future emission scenarios. The CPMs are likely the best available option for this kind of impact studies since they allow a better representation of small-scale processes and features, explicitly resolve deep convection, and show an improved representation of extremes. In our study, we also compare CPMs with regional climate models (RCMs – 12 km horizontal resolution) to assess the added value of high-resolution models for impact studies. Further development of our study will lead to assessing the future suitability for vine cultivation and could lead to the construction of a statistical model for future projection of grape yield.

The use of varieties tolerant to diseases is a long-term but promising option to reduce chemical input in viticulture. Several important breeding programs in Europe and abroad are starting to release a range of new hybrids performing well regarding fungi susceptibility and wine quality.