La zonazione della valle d’Illasi (Verona)

Effects of climate change on viticulture systems and winemaking processes are being felt across the world. The IPCC 6thAssessment Report concluded widespread and rapid changes have occurred, the scale of recent changes being unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years. These changes will continue under all emission scenarios considered, including increases in frequency and intensity of hot extremes, heatwaves, heavy precipitation and droughts. Wine companies need tools and models allowing to peer into the future and identify the moment for intervention and measures for mitigation and/or avoidance. Previously, we presented conceptual guidelines for a 5-stage framework for defining adaptation strategies for wine businesses. That framework allows for direct comparison of different solutions to mitigate perceived climate change risks. Recent global climatic evolution and multiple reports of severe events since then (smoke taint, heatwave and droughts, frost, hail and floods, rising sea levels) imply urgency in providing effective tools to tackle the multiple perceived risks. A coordinated drive towards a higher level of resilience is therefore required. Recent publications such as the Australian Wine Future Climate Atlas and results from projects such as H2020 MED-GOLD inform on expected climate change impacts to the wine sector, foreseeing the climate to expect at regional and vineyard scale in coming decades. We present examples of practical application of the Climate Change Adaptation Framework (CCAF) to impacts affecting wine production in two wine regions: Barossa (Australia) and Douro (Portugal). We demonstrate feasibility of the framework for climate adaptation from available data and tools to estimate historical climate-induced profitability loss, to project it in the future and to identify critical moments when disruptions may occur if timely measures are not implemented. Finally, we discuss adaptation measures and respective timeframes for successful mitigation of disruptive risk while enhancing resilience of wine systems.

The mechanization of vineyard work originally led to a reduction in planting densities due to the lack of machinery adapted to the vineyard. The current availability of specific machinery makes it possible to establish higher planting densities. In this work, three planting densities (1.40×0.80 m, 1.80×1 m and 2.20×1.20 m, corresponding to 8928, 5555 and 3787 plants/ha respectively) were studied with four varieties autochthonous of Galicia (northwestern Spain): Albariño and Treixadura (white), Sousón and Mencía (red). The vines were trained in a vertical shoot positioning system using a single Royat cordon, and pruned to spurs with two buds each. Agronomic data (yield, pruning wood weight, Ravaz index) and oenological data in must were collected. The higher planting density (1.40×0.80 m) had no significant effect on grape yield per vine in white varieties, although production per hectare was much higher due to the greater number of plants. In red varieties, this planting density resulted in a significantly lower production per vine, compensated by the greater number of plants. In addition, it significantly reduced the Brix degree in the must of the Albariño, Treixadura and Sousón varieties, and increased the total acidity in the latter two and Mencía. It also caused an increase in extractable and total anthocyanins and IPT in red grapes. The effects of high planting density on grapes are of great interest for the adaptation of varieties in the context of climate change. In the future, it could be advisable to modify the limits imposed by the appellations of origin on the planting density of these varieties in order to obtain more balanced wines.

Grapevine trunk diseases including Eutypa dieback are a major factor in the decline of vineyards and may lead to loss of productivity, reduced income, and premature reworking or replanting. Several studies have yielded results indicating that vines may be more likely to express symptoms of vascular disease if their health is already compromised by stress. In Australia and many other wine-growing regions it is a common practice for canes to be wrapped tightly around the cordon wire during the establishment of permanent cordon arms. It is likely that this practice may have a negative effect on health and longevity, as older cordons that have been trained in this manner often display signs of decay and dieback, with the wire often visibly embedded within the wood of the cordon. It is possible that adopting a training method which avoids constriction of the vasculature of the cordon may help to limit the onset of vascular disease symptom expression. A survey was conducted during the spring of two consecutive growing seasons on vineyards in South Australia displaying symptoms of Eutypa lata infection when symptomless shoots were 50–100 cm long. Vines were assessed as follows: (i) the proportion of cordon exhibiting dieback was rated using a 0–100% scale; (ii) the proportion of canopy exhibiting foliar symptoms of Eutypa dieback was rated using a 0–100% scale; (iii) the severity of strangulation was rated using a 0–4 point scale. Images were also taken of each vine for the purpose of measuring plant area index (PAI) using the VitiCanopy App. The goal of the survey was to determine if and to what extent any correlation exists between severity of strangulation and cordon dieback, in addition to Eutypa dieback foliar symptom expression.

Grapevine yield is a key indicator to assess the impacts of climate change and the relevance of adaptation strategies in a vineyard landscape. At this scale, a yield model should use a number of parameters and input data in relation to the information available and be able to reproduce vineyard management decisions (e.g. soil and canopy management, irrigation). In this study, we used data from six experimental sites in Southern France (cv. Syrah) to calibrate a model of grapevine yield limited by water constraint (GraY). Each yield component (bud fertility, number of berries per bunch, berry weight) was calculated as a function of the soil water availability simulated by the WaLIS water balance model at critical phenological phases. The model was then evaluated in 10 grapegrowers’ plots, covering a diversity of biophysical and technical contexts (soil type, canopy size, irrigation, cover crop). We identified three critical periods for yield formation: after flowering on the previous year for the number of bunches and berries, around pre-veraison and post-veraison of the same year for mean berry weight. Yields were simulated with a model efficiency (EF) of 0.62 (NRMSE = 0.28). Bud fertility and number of berries per bunch were more accurately simulated (EF = 0.90 and 0.77, NRMSE = 0.06 and 0.10, respectively) than berry weight (EF = -0.31, NRMSE = 0.17). Model efficiency on the on-farm plots reached 0.71 (NRMSE = 0.37) simulating yields from 1 to 8 kg/plant. The GraY model is an original model estimating grapevine yield evolution on the basis of water availability under future climatic conditions.  It allows to evaluate the effects of various adaptation levers such as planting density, cover crop management, fruit/leaf ratio, shading and irrigation, in various production contexts.

The Earth’s system is undergoing major changes through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales as a response to growing anthropogenic radiative forcing, which is pushing the whole system far beyond its natural variability. Sources of greenhouse gases largely exceed their sinks, thus leading to a strengthened greenhouse effect. More energy is thereby being supplied to the system, with inevitable shifts in climatic patterns and weather regimes. Over the last decades, these modifications have been manifested in the full statistical distributions of the atmospheric variables, with dramatic changes in the frequency and intensity of extremes. Natural hazards, such as severe droughts, floods, forest fires, or heatwaves, are being triggered by extreme atmospheric events worldwide, thus threatening human activities. Viticultculture is not only exposed to changing climates but is also highly vulnerable, as grapevine phenology and physiological development are strongly controlled by atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the assessment of climate change projections for a given region is critical for climate change adaptation and risk reduction in viticulture. By adopting timely and suitable measures, the future sustainability and resiliency of the sector can be fostered. Climate-grapevine chain modelling is an essential tool for better planning and management. However, the accuracy of the resulting projections is limited by many uncertainties that must be duly taken into account when transferring knowledge to stakeholders and decision-makers. Climate-smart viticulture will comprise ensembles of locally tuned strategies, envisioning both adaptation and mitigation, assisted by emerging technologies and decision-support systems.