Simulating climate change impact on viticultural systems in historical and emergent vineyards

Grape cane is a viticultural by-product that is currently underused or not used at all. Therefore, it bears a high potential for valorization due to the presence of anti-microbially active stilbenoids, being biologically relevant for plant defense. These compounds are highly interesting for applications in the agricultural sector as well as for the food and feed industry.

Atmospheric CO2 levels have been rising continuously since the industrial revolution, affecting crop physiology, yield and quality of harvest products, and grapevine is no exception [1]. Most of previously reported studies used potted plants in controlled environments, and explored grapevine response to relatively high CO2 levels, 700 ppm or more. The vineyardFACE, established in Geisenheim in 2012, uses a free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) system to simulate a moderate (ambient +20%) increase in atmospheric CO2 in a vineyard planted with cvs. Cabernet-Sauvignon and Riesling grafted on rootstock 161-49 Couderc and SO4, respectively.

Context and Purpose. Climate change presents significant challenges to agricultural sustainability, particularly through the increasing frequency of drought and water scarcity.

Most European vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where seasonal water deficit has become increasingly important. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is seldomly thoroughly evaluated. Therefore, we aim to quantify the flowering-veraison water stress levels using Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) over 1986–2015 for important European wine regions, and to assess the respective potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR). Additionally, we also investigate whether an advanced flowering-veraison phase may help alleviating the water stress with improved yield. A process-based grapevine model STICS is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for flowering and veraison stages using observed data at 38 locations with 10 different grapevine varieties. Subsequently, the model is being implemented at the regional level, considering site-specific calibration results and gridded climate and soil datasets. The findings suggest wine regions with stronger flowering-veraison CWSI tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI<0.5) and a negligible-to-moderate YLR (<30%), whereas the latter possesses severe-to-extreme CWSI (>0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. An advanced flowering-veraison phase may have benefited from cooler temperatures and a higher fraction of spring precipitation in wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, resulting in alleviated CWSI and moderate reductions of YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent alleviations of YLR are also found, possibly because of shifted phase towards a cooler growing season with reduced evaporative demands. Overall, such a retrospective analysis might provide new insights towards better management of seasonal water deficit for conventionally vulnerable Mediterranean wine regions, but also for relatively cooler and wetter Central European regions.

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