Simulating climate change impact on viticultural systems in historical and emergent vineyards

Improving our knowledge on biotic and abiotic factors that influence the composition of the grapevine mycobiome is of great agricultural significance, due to potential effects on plant health, productivity, and wine characteristics. Among the various environmental factors affecting the morphological, physiological, biochemical and molecular attributes of grapevine, drought stress is one of the most severe, becoming increasingly an issue worldwide.

Effects of climate change on viticulture systems and winemaking processes are being felt across the world. The IPCC 6thAssessment Report concluded widespread and rapid changes have occurred, the scale of recent changes being unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years. These changes will continue under all emission scenarios considered, including increases in frequency and intensity of hot extremes, heatwaves, heavy precipitation and droughts. Wine companies need tools and models allowing to peer into the future and identify the moment for intervention and measures for mitigation and/or avoidance. Previously, we presented conceptual guidelines for a 5-stage framework for defining adaptation strategies for wine businesses. That framework allows for direct comparison of different solutions to mitigate perceived climate change risks. Recent global climatic evolution and multiple reports of severe events since then (smoke taint, heatwave and droughts, frost, hail and floods, rising sea levels) imply urgency in providing effective tools to tackle the multiple perceived risks. A coordinated drive towards a higher level of resilience is therefore required. Recent publications such as the Australian Wine Future Climate Atlas and results from projects such as H2020 MED-GOLD inform on expected climate change impacts to the wine sector, foreseeing the climate to expect at regional and vineyard scale in coming decades. We present examples of practical application of the Climate Change Adaptation Framework (CCAF) to impacts affecting wine production in two wine regions: Barossa (Australia) and Douro (Portugal). We demonstrate feasibility of the framework for climate adaptation from available data and tools to estimate historical climate-induced profitability loss, to project it in the future and to identify critical moments when disruptions may occur if timely measures are not implemented. Finally, we discuss adaptation measures and respective timeframes for successful mitigation of disruptive risk while enhancing resilience of wine systems.

High resolution soil maps (scale : 1/3000) were created for seven of the most prestigious red wine producing estates in Bordeaux, covering in total approximately 400 ha.

Grapevine leaf removal (LR) in the cluster area is typically done between fruit set and cluster closure to create an unfavorable microclimate for fungal diseases, such as Botrytis cinerea and powdery mildew. Grape growers are now turning their attention to pre-flowering LR, which has additional benefits under certain conditions. When applied before flowering, LR strongly affects fruit set and thus the number of berries per cluster. It is therefore a good yield control tool, replacing time-consuming manual cluster thinning (Poni et al. 2006). It also improves berry structure, that is, skin thickness, skin-to-pulp ratio, and berry composition (total soluble solids, titratable acidity, and polyphenols) (Palliotti et al. 2012; Komm and Moyer 2015). By exacerbating competition for assimilates between reproductive and vegetative organs, pre-flowering LR also poses some risks. Excessive yield loss at the same year’s harvest due to a too low fruit set rate is the main concern: intensive pre-flowering LR (100% of the cluster area) can induce up to 50% yield loss in potted vines (Poni et al. 2005). Other parameters, such as cool climatic conditions during flowering, also affect fruit set rate and make it difficult to predict potential yield at harvest. Repeated and overly intensive preflowering LR can have repercussions over time and induce a decline in bud fruiting and plant vigor (Risco et al. 2014).

Estimation of vineyard leaf area index (LAI) is an important aspect for the winegrowers. However, tracking and monitoring are difficult tasks due to time constraints. Satellite and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imaging have become a practical monitoring method for LAI. Nevertheless, for a proper LAI determination, the image’s spatial resolution is a key factor, since low-resolution images are incapable of distinguishing between adjacent vines due to the large area covered in each pixel, this leads to misinterpretation or generalisation of vineyard information.