terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Grapevine yield estimation in a context of climate change: the GraY model

Grapevine yield estimation in a context of climate change: the GraY model

Abstract

Grapevine yield is a key indicator to assess the impacts of climate change and the relevance of adaptation strategies in a vineyard landscape. At this scale, a yield model should use a number of parameters and input data in relation to the information available and be able to reproduce vineyard management decisions (e.g. soil and canopy management, irrigation). In this study, we used data from six experimental sites in Southern France (cv. Syrah) to calibrate a model of grapevine yield limited by water constraint (GraY). Each yield component (bud fertility, number of berries per bunch, berry weight) was calculated as a function of the soil water availability simulated by the WaLIS water balance model at critical phenological phases. The model was then evaluated in 10 grapegrowers’ plots, covering a diversity of biophysical and technical contexts (soil type, canopy size, irrigation, cover crop). We identified three critical periods for yield formation: after flowering on the previous year for the number of bunches and berries, around pre-veraison and post-veraison of the same year for mean berry weight. Yields were simulated with a model efficiency (EF) of 0.62 (NRMSE = 0.28). Bud fertility and number of berries per bunch were more accurately simulated (EF = 0.90 and 0.77, NRMSE = 0.06 and 0.10, respectively) than berry weight (EF = -0.31, NRMSE = 0.17). Model efficiency on the on-farm plots reached 0.71 (NRMSE = 0.37) simulating yields from 1 to 8 kg/plant. The GraY model is an original model estimating grapevine yield evolution on the basis of water availability under future climatic conditions.  It allows to evaluate the effects of various adaptation levers such as planting density, cover crop management, fruit/leaf ratio, shading and irrigation, in various production contexts.

Download the PDF

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Poster

Authors

Audrey Naulleau1, Laure Hossard2, Laurent Prévot3, Christian Gary1

1ABSys, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, CIRAD, Institut Agro, Ciheam-IAMM, Montpellier, France
2Innovation, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, CIRAD, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France
3LISAH, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France

Contact the author

Keywords

semi-empirical model, grape yield, water constraint, climate change, vineyard management

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

Methodological approach to zoning

An appellation or geographic indication should be based on the terroir concept in order to ensure its integrity. The delimitation of viticultural terroirs must include two consecutive or parallel steps, namely (a) the characterisation of the environment and identification of homogenous environmental units (basic terroir units, natural terroir units) taking all natural factors into account, as well as (b) the characterisation of the viticultural and oenological potential of these units over time.

Read More

Study of varietal wines from the qualified origin denomination Rioja (Spain): analysis of wine colour, polysaccharides, polyphenols and biogenic amines and amino acides 

The cultivar with a greater oenological potential was ‘Monastel’, which showed overall better values than ‘Tempranillo’ in colour intensity, total polyphenol index, wine colour, total anthocyanins, resveratrol and gallic acid.

Read More

Fine-scale projections of future climate in the vineyards of southern Uruguay

In viticulture, climate change significantly impacts the plant’s development and the quality and characteristics of wines. These variations are often observed over short distances in a wine-growing region and are linked to local features (slope, soil, seasonal climate, etc.). The high spatial variability of climate caused by local factors is often of the same order or even higher than the temperature increase simulated by the different IPCC scenarios.

Read More

Reduction of the height of the canopy in fruit set and in pea size: vegetative, productive and maturation effects, in cv. Verdejo

Global warming is accelerating the technological ripening of the grape, with a loss of acidity, which requires that vineyard management can delay ripening to avoid it. The source-sink relation is essential for grape ripening, since it affects the distribution of photosynthates and substances derived from plant metabolism. A work is proposed to know the response of the vineyard to the drastic reduction of the foliar surface by trim down the shoots in cv.

Read More

Influence of withering on valpolicella docgs grapes volatile composition

The blend of grapes used in the production of the four Valpolicella PDOs red wines, namely Valpolicella, Valpolicella Classico Superiore, Recioto della Valpolicella and Amarone della Valpolicella is quite unique, and includes two main varieties Corvina and Corvinone, and other minor varieties. To a very large extent all these grapes are only grown in the province of Verona. One of the main characteristics of Valpolicella is the use of grapes that are submitted to post-harvest withering. The aim of this study was therefore to evaluate the evolution of the free and glycosidically-bound volatile compounds in Corvina and Corvinone grapes under real production conditions.

Read More