terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Frost risk projections in a changing climate are highly sensitive in time and space to frost modelling approaches

Frost risk projections in a changing climate are highly sensitive in time and space to frost modelling approaches

Abstract

Late spring frost is a major challenge for various winegrowing regions across the world, its occurrence often leading to important yield losses and/or plant failure. Despite a significant increase in minimum temperatures worldwide, the spatial and temporal evolution of spring frost risk under a warmer climate remains largely uncertain. Recent projections of spring frost risk for viticulture in Europe throughout the 21st century show that its evolution strongly depends on the model approach used to simulate budburst. Furthermore, the frost damage modelling methods used in these projections are usually not assessed through comparison to field observations and/or frost damage reports. 
The present study aims at comparing frost risk projections simulated using six spring frost models based on two approaches: a) models considering a fixed damage threshold after the predicted budburst date (e.g BRIN, Smoothed-Utah, Growing Degree Days, Fenovitis) and b) models considering a dynamic frost sensitivity threshold based on the predicted grapevine winter/spring dehardening process (e.g. Ferguson model). The capability of each model to simulate an actual frost event for the Vitis vinifera cv. Chadonnay B was previously assessed by comparing simulated cold thermal stress to reports of events with frost damage in Chablis, the northernmost winegrowing region of Burgundy. Models exhibited scores of κ > 0.65 when reproducing the frost/non-frost damage years and an accuracy ranging from 0.82 to 0.90. 
Spring frost risk projections throughout the 21st century were performed for all winegrowing subregions of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté under two CMIP5 concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) using statistically downscaled 8×8 km daily air temperature and humidity of 13 climate models. Contrasting results with region-specific spring frost risk trends were observed. Three out of five models show a decrease in the frequency of frost years across the whole study area while the other two show an increase that is more or less pronounced depending on winegrowing subregion. Our findings indicate that the lack of accuracy in grapevine budburst and dehardening models makes climate projections of spring frost risk highly uncertain for grapevine cultivation regions

Download the PDF

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Article

Authors

Catinca Gavrilescu1, Sebastien Zito1, Yves Richard1, Thierry Castel1, Guillaume Morvan2 and Benjamin Bois1,3

1Centre de Recherches de Climatologie – UMR Biogeosciences, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté / CNRS, Dijon, France 
2Chambre d’Agriculture de l’Yonne, Auxerre, France 
3Institut Universitaire de la Vigne et du Vin, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France 

Contact the author

Keywords

frost risk, viticulture, thermal stress, climate change, extreme weather

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

Extension to the Saumurois-Touraine area of an Anjou-originated method for the characterisation of the viticultural terroirs. (Loire Valley, France)

En Anjou, une méthode de caractérisation des terroirs viticoles a été développée. Elle utilise un modèle de terrain basé sur la profondeur de sol et son degré d’argilisation. Le modèle concerne des terrains issus principalement de roches mères métamorphiques et éruptives du Massif Armoricain. Cet outil de caractérisation des terroirs viticoles nécessite d’être adapté lorsqu’il s’agit d’ensembles géologiques très différents, en particulier sur sols d’apport et de roches mères tendres et poreuses du Bassin Parisien. Une meilleure compréhension de la réserve hydrique des sols apparaît être un critère important de l’interaction entre le milieu et la plante.

Read More

Clustering wine aromatic composition of Vitis vinifera grapevine varieties

Climate change is likely to impact wine typicity across the globe, raising concerns in wine regions historically renowned for the quality of their terroir. Amongst several changes in viticultural practices, replacing some of the planting material (i.e clones, rootstocks and cultivars) is thought to be one of the most promising potential levers to be used for adapting to climate change. But the change of cultivars also involves the issue of protecting the region’s wine typicity.

Read More

TCA – A status report on South African cork closures

Cork taint decreases the commercial value of wine as tainted wines are rejected by consumers. Although other compounds in wine and cork can also be responsible for causing a taint, 2,4,6-trichloroanisole (TCA) is regarded as the primary cause of cork taint. As cork taint is often used in marketing campaigns against natural cork closures,

Read More

From average to individual fruit, a paradigm shift for accurate analysis of water accumulation and primary metabolism in developing berries

Presentknowledge about grape development is mainly driven by the premise that a typical berry would follow the same kinetics as the population average

Read More

Biotic and abiotic factors affecting physiological aspects underlying vegetative vigour in two commercial grapevine varieties

Grapevine vigour, defined as the propensity to assimilate, store and/or use non-structural sugars for allowing fast growth of shoots and producing large canopies[1], is crucial to optimize vineyard management. Recently, a model has been proposed for predicting the vigor of young grapevines through the measurement of the vegetative growth and physiological parameters, such as water status and gas exchange[2]. Our objectives were (1) to explore the influence of the association of two grapevine varieties (Tempranillo and Cabernet Sauvignon, grafted onto R110 rootstocks) with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) on the vegetative vigour of young plants; and (2) to assess the effect of environmental factors linked to climate change on the vegetative vigour of Cabernet Sauvignon.

Read More