GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 Impacts of the projected changes in temperature under scenarios of climate change on vine phenology of three red varieties cultivated in Rioja (Spain)

Impacts of the projected changes in temperature under scenarios of climate change on vine phenology of three red varieties cultivated in Rioja (Spain)

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study – Grapevine is one of the crops that may suffer more negative impacts under climate change, due not only to changes in temperature but also due to water available. Some of the most direct effects of climate variability on grapevines are the changes in the onset and timing of phenology events and changes in the length of the growing season, which may have further effects on grape quality. The aim of this research was to analyze the changes in vine phenology of some red varieties (Tempranillo, Grenache and Carignan) cultivated in Rioja Oriental (Rioja DOCa), under different climate change scenarios.

Material and methods – The research includes the analysis of three plots located in the municipality of Viana (Navarra). Vine phenology referred to flowers separated (stage H) and veraison (stage M), Baillod and Baggiolini, 1993) was analyzed in the three plots for the period between 2005 and 2018. Climate characteristics were analyzed by considering the information recorded, for the same period in Viana meteorological station, which belongs to the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) of Spain. The thermal requirements to reach each of these phenological stages were evaluated and expressed as the GDD accumulated from DOI=60 (Parker et al, 2011). Temperature and precipitation changes under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios –RCP4.5 and RCP8.5- were simulated based on an ensemble of models, using the MarkSim™ DSSAT weather file generator. Predictions for 2050 and 2070 for the changes on phenology were done, based on the projected changes in temperature and taking into account the observed thermal requirements during the period of analysis.

Results – An advance of the phenological stages was predicted, higher for veraison than for flowers separated, and higher for the varieties with later phenology (Carignan> Grenache > Tempranillo). Under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the stage of flowers separated may be advanced about 5 days by 2050 and about 7 days, by 2070; and veraison may be advanced about 4 days by 2050 and about 7 days by 2070. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario the advance could be up to 6 and 12 days for the stage of flowers separated and up to 6 and 15 days for veraison, respectively for the same time periods. This implies reaching maturity at the end of August, under high temperatures and with a risk of producing an imbalance between phenolic maturation and sugar and acid concentrations.

DOI:

Publication date: September 27, 2023

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Poster

Authors

Maria Concepción RAMOS1*, Fernando MARTÍNEZ DE TODA2

1 Deparment of Environment and Soil Sciences-Agrotecnio, University of Lleida, Spain
2 Instituto de Ciencias de la Vid y del Vino (Universidad de La Rioja, CSIC, Gobierno de La Rioja), Logroño, Spain

Contact the author

Keywords

climate change, Grenache, Carignan, Tempranillo, Rioja

Tags

GiESCO | GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Combining effect of leaf removal and natural shading on grape ripening under two irrigation strategies in Manto negro (Vitis vinifera L.)

The increasingly frequent heat waves during grape ripening pose challenges for high quality wine grape production. Defoliation is a common practice that can improve the control of diseases in bunches, but also it increases the exposure to sunlight. Grapes exposed to solar radiation reach temperatures over the optimum for berry development and maturation. This makes the development of irrigation and canopy management techniques of great importance to maximize yield and grape quality. A field experiment was carried out during 2021 using Manto negro wine grapes to study the effect of applied irrigation and different light exposure levels on grape quality. Two irrigation treatments were imposed based on the frequency and amount of water doses in a four-block experimental vineyard at Bodega Ribas (Mallorca). Three light exposure treatments were randomly applied in each irrigation plot. The light treatments included exposed clusters from pea size, non-exposed clusters, and shaded clusters after softening. Leaf area index and canopy porosity was estimated every 2 weeks. Midday leaf water potential was measured weekly. Additionally, apparent electrical conductivity was measured between rows to estimate the soil water content variability. Light and temperature sensors were installed at the bunch level to quantify the differences in bunch temperature and light intensity among treatments. The effect of irrigation and cluster light exposure on berry weight, TSS, TA, malic acid, tartaric acid, K+, and pH were analysed at 5 moments along grape ripening. During different heat waves, the natural shading technique decreased the maximum bunch temperature around 10 °C respect to the exposed bunches in both irrigation strategies. The combination of defoliation and shading techniques after softening decreased TSS at harvest and affected most of the quality parameters during the last stages of ripening, showing an interesting technique to delay ripening in warm viticulture areas.

Comparison of imputation methods in long and varied phenological series. Application to the Conegliano dataset, including observations from 1964 over 400 grape varieties

A large varietal collection including over 1700 varieties was maintained in Conegliano, ITA, since the 1950s. Phenological data on a subset of 400 grape varieties including wine grapes, table grapes, and raisins were acquired at bud break, flowering, veraison, and ripening since 1964. Despite the efforts in maintaining and acquiring data over such an extensive collection, the data set has varying degrees of missing cases depending on the variety and the year. This is ubiquitous in phenology datasets with significant size and length. In this work, we evaluated four state-of-the-art methods to estimate missing values in this phenological series: k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (mice), MissForest, and Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series (BRITS). For each phenological stage, we evaluated the performance of the methods in two ways. 1) On the full dataset, we randomly hold-out 10% of the true values for use as a test set and repeated the process 1000 times (Monte Carlo cross-validation). 2) On a reduced and almost complete subset of varieties, we varied the percentage of missing values from 10% to 70% by random deletion. In all cases, we evaluated the performance on the original values using normalized root mean squared error. For the full dataset we also obtained performance statistics by variety and by year. MissForest provided average errors of 17% (3 days) at budbreak, 14% (4 days) at flowering, 14.5% (7 days) at veraison, and 17% (3 days) at maturity. We completed the imputations of the Conegliano dataset, one of the world’s most extensive and varied phenological time series and a steppingstone for future climate change studies in grapes. The dataset is now ready for further analysis, and a rigorous evaluation of imputation errors is included.

Modeling island and coastal vineyards potential in the context of climate change

Climate change impacts regional and local climates, which in turn affects the world’s wine regions. In the short term, these modifications rises issues about maintaining quality and style of wine, and in a longer term about the suitability of grape varieties and the sustainability of traditional wine regions. Thus, adaptation to climate change represents a major challenge for viticulture. In this context, island and coastal vineyards could become coveted areas due to their specific climatic conditions. In regions subject to warming, the proximity of the sea can moderate extremes temperatures, which could be an advantage for wine. However, coastal and island areas are particular prized spaces and subject to multiple pressures that make the establishment or extension of viticulture complex.
In this perspective, it seems relevant to assess the potentialities of coastal and island areas for viticulture. This contribution will present a spatial optimization model that tends to characterize most suitable agroclimatic patterns in historical or emerging vineyards according to different scenarios. Thanks to an in-depth bibliography a global inventory of coastal and insular vineyards on a worldwide scale has been realized. Relevant criteria have been identified to describe the specificities of these vineyards. They are used as input data in the optimization process, which will optimize some objectives and spatial aspects. According to a predefined scenario, the objectives are set in three main categories associated with climatic characteristics, vineyards characteristics and management strategies. At the end of this optimization process, a series of maps presents the different spatial configurations that maximize the scenario objectives.

Impact of changes in pruning practices on vine growth and yield

A gradual decline in vineyards has been observed over the past twenty years worldwide. This might be explained by the climate change, practices change or the increase of dieback diseases. To increase the longevity of vines, we studied the impact of different pruning strategies in four adult and four young vineyards located in France and Spain. In France, vineyards were planted with Cabernet franc on 3309C while Spanish trials were planted with Tempranillo grafted on 110R. Vegetative expression, yield, quality of berries and wood vessels conductivity were measured. The distribution of vegetative expression, yield and berry composition between primary and secondary vegetation were quantified. Finally, tomography was used to evaluate the implication of the treatments on sap flows.
First results show that i) the respectful pruning leads to an increase of 30 to 50% more secondary shoots than the aggressive pruning in France and between 15 and 20% in Spain, ii) there is no major effect on the yield over the first two years following the implementation of the new pruning practices, although the proportion of clusters from suckers is higher on the respectful pruning method. On young vines, the development of the trunk according to a respectful pruning leads to a loss of harvest 2 years after planting. This is due to the removal, on the future trunk, of the green suckers which carrying bunches. This operation carried out in spring rather than during winter pruning, would promote a better leaf / fruit balance when the plant comes into production, and could lead to better hydraulic conduction in the vessels of the trunk. Maintaining these trials for several years will provide more robust data to assess the impact of these practices on the vines over the long term.

Revealing the Barossa zone sub-divisions through sensory and chemical analysis of Shiraz wine

The Barossa zone is arguably one of the most well-recognised wine producing regions in Australia and internationally; known mainly for the production of its distinct Shiraz wines. However, within the broad Barossa geographical delimitation, a variation in terroir can be perceived and is expressed as sensorial and chemical profile differences between wines. This study aimed to explore the sub-division classification across the Barossa region using chemical and sensory measurements. Shiraz grapes from 4 different vintages and different vineyards across the Barossa (2018, n = 69; 2019, n = 72; 2020, n = 79; 2021, n = 64) were harvested and made using a standardised small lot winemaking procedure. The analysis involved a sensory descriptive analysis with a highly trained panel and chemical measurement including basic chemistry (e.g. pH, TA, alcohol content, total SO2), phenolic composition, volatile compounds, metals, proline, and polysaccharides. The datasets were combined and analysed through an unsupervised, clustering analysis. Firstly, each vintage was considered separately to investigate any vintage to vintage variation. The datasets were then combined and analysed as a whole. The number of sub-divisions based on the measurements were identified and characterised with their sensory and chemical profile and some consistencies were seen between the vintages. Preliminary analysis of the sensory results showed that in most vintages, two major groups could be identified characterised with one group showing a fruit-forward profile and another displaying savoury and cooked vegetables characters. The exploration of distinct profiles arising from the Barossa wine producing region will provide producers with valuable information about the regional potential of their wine assisting with tools to increase their target market and reputation. This study will also provide a robust and comprehensive basis to determine the distinctive terroir characteristics which exist within the Barossa wine producing region.