GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 GiESCO 2019 9 Climate change 9 Simulating the impact of climate change on grapevine behaviour and viticultural activities

Simulating the impact of climate change on grapevine behaviour and viticultural activities

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study‐ Global climate change affects regional climates and hold implications for wine growing regions worldwide (Jones, 2007 and 2015; Van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). The prospect of 21st century climate change consequently is one of the major challenges facing the wine industry (Keller, 2010). They vary from short‐term impacts on wine quality and style, to long‐term issues such as varietal suitability and the economic sustainability of traditional wine growing regions (Schultz and Jones 2010 ; Quénol 2014). Within the context of a global changing climate, most studies that address future impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. However, very few studies model the complex interaction between environmental features, plant behaviour and farming activities at local scales. In viticulture, this level of assessment is of particular importance, as it is the scale where adaptation matters the most. Within this context, it seems appropriate to develop a modelling approach, able to simulate the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine behaviour and the dynamics of viticultural activities.

Material and methods ‐ Our modeling approach, named SEVE (Simulating Environmental impacts on Viticultural Ecosystems), has been designed to describe viticultural practices with responsive agents constrained by exogenous variables (biophysical, socio‐economic and regulatory constraints). Based on multi‐agent paradigm, SEVE has two principle objectives, first, to simulate grapevine phenology and grape ripening according to climate variability and secondly, to simulate viticultural practices and adaptation strategies under environmental, economic and socio‐technical constraints. Each activity is represented by an autonomous agent able to react and adapt its reaction to the variability of environmental constraints. The reaction chain results from a combination of natural and anthropogenic stresses integrated at different scale level (from plot to vineyard).

Results ‐ Simulation results underline that small scale variability is strongly linked with vine phenology stages and ripeness potential. Over the next century, winegrowers will likely be confronted by increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns that will have important impacts on agronomic itineraries and adaptation strategies. Through different experiment in european vineyards in the context of ADVICLIM project (http://www.adviclim.eu/), SEVE model provide prospective simulation of potential adaptation strategies from short‐term (e.g. in harvest management practices) to long‐term adjustment, such as in varietal selection. In response to increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, they vary therefore in nature and effectiveness, where longterm measures in the choice in grapevine variety and the use of irrigation seem to be the most effective. 

DOI:

Publication date: June 19, 2020

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Article

Authors

Cyril TISSOT1, Mathias ROUAN1, Renan LE ROUX2, Etienne NEETHLING3, Laure de RERREGUIER4, Théo PETITJEAN4, Cornelis van LEEUWEN4, Hervé QUENOL2, Irima LIVIU5, Cristi PATRICHE5

(1) UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Brest, France
(2) UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Rennes, France
(3) LEESA, Angers, France
(4) ISVV, Villenave-d’Ornon, France
(5) University of Agricultural Sciences, Iasi, Romania

Contact the author

Keywords

grapevine, production strategies, climate change, multi‐agents model, adaptation, temporal dynamics, spatial variability, wine growers

Tags

GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Different soil types and relief influence the quality of Merlot grapes in a relatively small area in the Vipava Valley (Slovenia) in relation to the vine water status

Besides location and microclimatic conditions, soil plays an important role in the quality of grapes and wine. Soil properties influence…

Local adaptation tools to ensure the viticultural sustainability in a changing climate

[lwp_divi_breadcrumbs home_text="IVES" use_before_icon="on" before_icon="||divi||400" module_id="publication-ariane" _builder_version="4.19.4" _module_preset="default" module_text_align="center" module_font_size="16px" text_orientation="center"...

First step in the preparation of a soil map of the Protected Designation of Origin Valdepeñas (Central, Spain)

This work is a first step to make a map of vineyard soils. The characterization of the soils of the Protected Designation of Origin (D.P.O.) Valdepeñas will allow to group the studied profiles according to their physico-chemical characteristics and the concentrations of most relevant chemical elements. 90 soil profiles were analysed throughout the territory and the soils were sampled and described according to FAO (2006) and classified according to and Soil Taxonomy (2014). All samples were air dried, sieved and some physico-chemical parameters were determined following standard protocols. Also, major and trace elements were analysed by X-ray fluorescence. The statistically study was made using the SPSS program. Trend maps were made using the ArcGIS program. The studied soils have the following average properties: pH, 8.3; electrical conductivity, 0,20 dS/m (low); clay, 18.8% (medium) and CaCO3, 17.1% (high). In the study for the major elements. The major elements of these soils are Si, followed by Ca and Al, with an average content of 203.7 g/kg, 105.5 g/kg and 74.0 g/kg respectively. On the other hand, 27 trace elements have been studied. Of all of them, it can be highlighted the average values of Ba (361.8 mg/kg), Sr (129.3 mg/kg), Rb (83.4 mg/kg), V (74.2 mg/kg) and Ce (70.6 mg/kg). Ba, V and Ce values are higher and the values of Sr and Rb are lower to those found in the literature. The discriminant analysis shows a percentage of grouping of 91%. The content of chemical elements together with the physico-chemical characteristics allows grouping the soils in 4 group according to their order in the classification to Soil Taxonomy; due to the importance of the Calcisols in Castilla-La Mancha, it has been decided to establish them as their own group even if they do not appear in Soil Taxonomy classification.

Climate change projections to support the transition to climate-smart viticulture

The Earth’s system is undergoing major changes through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales as a response to growing anthropogenic radiative forcing, which is pushing the whole system far beyond its natural variability. Sources of greenhouse gases largely exceed their sinks, thus leading to a strengthened greenhouse effect. More energy is thereby being supplied to the system, with inevitable shifts in climatic patterns and weather regimes. Over the last decades, these modifications have been manifested in the full statistical distributions of the atmospheric variables, with dramatic changes in the frequency and intensity of extremes. Natural hazards, such as severe droughts, floods, forest fires, or heatwaves, are being triggered by extreme atmospheric events worldwide, thus threatening human activities. Viticultculture is not only exposed to changing climates but is also highly vulnerable, as grapevine phenology and physiological development are strongly controlled by atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the assessment of climate change projections for a given region is critical for climate change adaptation and risk reduction in viticulture. By adopting timely and suitable measures, the future sustainability and resiliency of the sector can be fostered. Climate-grapevine chain modelling is an essential tool for better planning and management. However, the accuracy of the resulting projections is limited by many uncertainties that must be duly taken into account when transferring knowledge to stakeholders and decision-makers. Climate-smart viticulture will comprise ensembles of locally tuned strategies, envisioning both adaptation and mitigation, assisted by emerging technologies and decision-support systems.

Effect of fertigation strategies to adapt PGI Côtes de Gascogne production to hot vintage

The development of fertigation could be a possible solution to adapt PGI Côtes de Gascogne (south-western France) wine production to climate change. The goal would be to limit the negative effects of water stress on yield performance expectation (around 15 tons per hectare) and to make the use of fertilizers more efficient. This study aimed to compare the effects of three strategies of water and minerals supply on grapes and wines qualities. Two fertigation practices were compared to a rainfed control which is the current standard of the local grape growing production. The fertilizers (nitrogen and potassium) were (i) fully brought by irrigation pipe during the season, (ii) partially brought by irrigation pipe and partially on the soil or (iii) fully brought on the soil at the beginning of the season for the non-irrigated control (local standard). The trial was run on cv. Colombard trained on spur pruned with vertical shoot positioning system on a sandy-silty-clay soil over the 2020 vintage which was particularly hot for the region. Moderate to strong water deficit appeared during the growing period of the berries and held on after veraison. Irrigation strategies allowed for maintaining grapevine without water deficit and being significantly different from the control water status. Grapevine with fully or partial fertigation strategies produced 25% more yield mainly due to the increase of the bunch weight. Also, the fully fertigation showed the best ratio between yield and maturity and brought 30% less of fertilizers (both nitrogen and potassium) than the two other strategies. Finally, the analysis of aromatic compounds in Colombard wines, varietal thiols family, showed the same level of concentrations for the 3 treatments, confirming that the yield performance did not impact the aromatic potential in this trial.