GiESCO 2019 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 GiESCO 9 GiESCO 2019 9 Climate change 9 Simulating the impact of climate change on grapevine behaviour and viticultural activities

Simulating the impact of climate change on grapevine behaviour and viticultural activities

Abstract

Context and purpose of the study‐ Global climate change affects regional climates and hold implications for wine growing regions worldwide (Jones, 2007 and 2015; Van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). The prospect of 21st century climate change consequently is one of the major challenges facing the wine industry (Keller, 2010). They vary from short‐term impacts on wine quality and style, to long‐term issues such as varietal suitability and the economic sustainability of traditional wine growing regions (Schultz and Jones 2010 ; Quénol 2014). Within the context of a global changing climate, most studies that address future impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. However, very few studies model the complex interaction between environmental features, plant behaviour and farming activities at local scales. In viticulture, this level of assessment is of particular importance, as it is the scale where adaptation matters the most. Within this context, it seems appropriate to develop a modelling approach, able to simulate the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine behaviour and the dynamics of viticultural activities.

Material and methods ‐ Our modeling approach, named SEVE (Simulating Environmental impacts on Viticultural Ecosystems), has been designed to describe viticultural practices with responsive agents constrained by exogenous variables (biophysical, socio‐economic and regulatory constraints). Based on multi‐agent paradigm, SEVE has two principle objectives, first, to simulate grapevine phenology and grape ripening according to climate variability and secondly, to simulate viticultural practices and adaptation strategies under environmental, economic and socio‐technical constraints. Each activity is represented by an autonomous agent able to react and adapt its reaction to the variability of environmental constraints. The reaction chain results from a combination of natural and anthropogenic stresses integrated at different scale level (from plot to vineyard).

Results ‐ Simulation results underline that small scale variability is strongly linked with vine phenology stages and ripeness potential. Over the next century, winegrowers will likely be confronted by increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns that will have important impacts on agronomic itineraries and adaptation strategies. Through different experiment in european vineyards in the context of ADVICLIM project (http://www.adviclim.eu/), SEVE model provide prospective simulation of potential adaptation strategies from short‐term (e.g. in harvest management practices) to long‐term adjustment, such as in varietal selection. In response to increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, they vary therefore in nature and effectiveness, where longterm measures in the choice in grapevine variety and the use of irrigation seem to be the most effective. 

DOI:

Publication date: June 19, 2020

Issue: GiESCO 2019

Type: Article

Authors

Cyril TISSOT1, Mathias ROUAN1, Renan LE ROUX2, Etienne NEETHLING3, Laure de RERREGUIER4, Théo PETITJEAN4, Cornelis van LEEUWEN4, Hervé QUENOL2, Irima LIVIU5, Cristi PATRICHE5

(1) UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Brest, France
(2) UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Rennes, France
(3) LEESA, Angers, France
(4) ISVV, Villenave-d’Ornon, France
(5) University of Agricultural Sciences, Iasi, Romania

Contact the author

Keywords

grapevine, production strategies, climate change, multi‐agents model, adaptation, temporal dynamics, spatial variability, wine growers

Tags

GiESCO 2019 | IVES Conference Series

Citation

Related articles…

Exploring resilience and competitiveness of wine estates in Languedoc-Roussillon in the recent past: a multi-level perspective

The Languedoc-Roussillon wineries are facing a decline in wine yields particularly PGI yields due to many factors. Climate change is just ones, but is expected to increase in the future. There is also structurally a large heterogeneity of yield profiles among terroirs, varieties and strategies. This work investigates the link between yield, competitiveness and resilience to explore how resilient winegrowers have been in the recent past. To this end two approaches have been combined; (i) an accountancy database analysis at estate scale and (ii) municipality level competitiveness analysis. A new resilience indicator that characterizes the capacity of an estate to absorb yield variation is also defined. The FADN database between 2000 and 2018 of ex-Languedoc-Roussillon (France) and other data are used to analyse the current situation and the past evolution of competitiveness and resilience by type of estate (type of farm: PGI and/or PDO & type of commercialization: bulk and/or bottles). The net margin, which defines competitiveness, is not correlated to yield for all types but depends on the type of commercialization and the level of specialisation. The resilience indicator shows that the net margin of estates specialized in PGI is particularly sensitive to yield declines. We also show that price evolutions seem to compensate the effect of yield losses for the majority of types. Municipality scale analysis shows the links between local pedoclimate, yield, commercialization strategies and price. Overlapping a PDO with a PGI does not always increase a municipality’s PGI competitiveness. It is difficult to make links between causes and effects due to the complexity of the wine production system. Production diversification may be a solution. Resorting to the two level of analysis helps resolving the data gap that is necessary to explore the links between yield and economic performance of the wine estates in the long term.

Modelling vine water stress during a critical period and potential yield reduction rate in European wine regions: a retrospective analysis

Most European vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where seasonal water deficit has become increasingly important. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is seldomly thoroughly evaluated. Therefore, we aim to quantify the flowering-veraison water stress levels using Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) over 1986–2015 for important European wine regions, and to assess the respective potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR). Additionally, we also investigate whether an advanced flowering-veraison phase may help alleviating the water stress with improved yield. A process-based grapevine model STICS is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for flowering and veraison stages using observed data at 38 locations with 10 different grapevine varieties. Subsequently, the model is being implemented at the regional level, considering site-specific calibration results and gridded climate and soil datasets. The findings suggest wine regions with stronger flowering-veraison CWSI tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI<0.5) and a negligible-to-moderate YLR (<30%), whereas the latter possesses severe-to-extreme CWSI (>0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. An advanced flowering-veraison phase may have benefited from cooler temperatures and a higher fraction of spring precipitation in wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, resulting in alleviated CWSI and moderate reductions of YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent alleviations of YLR are also found, possibly because of shifted phase towards a cooler growing season with reduced evaporative demands. Overall, such a retrospective analysis might provide new insights towards better management of seasonal water deficit for conventionally vulnerable Mediterranean wine regions, but also for relatively cooler and wetter Central European regions.

The modification of cultural practices in grapevine cv. Syrah, does it modify the characteristics of the musts?

The work shows the results of a year of experimentation (2020) in a Syrah variety vineyard in La Roda (Castilla-La Mancha, Spain). The trial approach was on a randomized block design with two factors: Irrigation (I) and Pruning (P).
Irrigation schedules were adjusted to apply amounts close to 1,500 m3/ha. With this provision, 2 different irrigation treatments were proposed: I1) Start of irrigation from pea-sized grape to post-harvest (providing at least 20 % of the total amount of irrigation water to be provided post-harvest); I2) Start of irrigation from pea-sized grape to harvest (usual irrigation practice in the study area). Pruning was proposed with two treatments, one at the end of January (P1), which is pruning on a conventional date; and P2) pruning carried out at the beginning of budding. In total, 4 repetitions were designed with 4 elementary plots, each one of them representing one of the proposed treatments (I1P1; I1P2; I2P1; I2P2). In total, 16 plots were worked on and each elementary plot consisted of 30 strains, distributed in 3 lines.
The productive response was evaluated with the yield results of the harvest harvested at 23 ºBrix. The qualitative response was measured in the musts through the indices of technological (acidity, pH and potassium) and phenolic maturity and aromatic compounds in free and glycosylated fractions. The treatments tested had, in general, an effect on the different variables analyzed.

Mechanisms involved in the heating of the environment by the aerodynamic action of a wind machine to protect a vineyard against spring frost

One of the main consequences of global warming is the rise of the mean temperature. Thus, the heat summation by the plants begins sooner in the early spring, and by cumulating growing degree-days, phenological development tends to happen earlier. However, spring frost is still a recurrent phenomenon causing serious damages to buds and therefore, threatening the harvests of the winegrowers. The wind machine is a solution to protect fruit crops against spring frost that is increasingly used. It is composed of a 10-m mast with a blowing fan at its peak. By tapping into the strength of the nocturnal thermal inversion, it sweeps the crop by propelling warm air above to the ground. Thus, stratification is momentarily suppressed. Furthermore, the continuous action of the machine, alone or in synergy, or the addition of a heater allow the bud to be bathed in a warmer environment. Also, the punctual action of the tower’s warm gust reaches the bud directly at each rotation period. All these actions allow the bud to continuously warm up, but with different intensities and over a different period. Although there is evidence of the effectiveness of the wind machines, the thermal transfers involved in those mechanisms raise questions about their true nature. Field measurements based on ultrasonic anemometers and fast responding thermocouples complemented by laboratory measurements on a reduced scale model allow to characterize both the airflow produced by the wind machine and the local temperature in its vicinity. Those experiments were realized in the vineyard of Quincy, in the framework of the SICTAG project. In the future paper, we will detail the aeraulic characterization of the wind machine and the thermal effects resulting from it and we will focus on how the wind machine warms up the local atmosphere and enables to reduce the freezing risk.

Local adaptation tools to ensure the viticultural sustainability in a changing climate

[lwp_divi_breadcrumbs home_text="IVES" use_before_icon="on" before_icon="||divi||400" module_id="publication-ariane" _builder_version="4.19.4" _module_preset="default" module_text_align="center" module_font_size="16px" text_orientation="center"...