The temperature‐based grapevine sugar ripeness (GSR) model for adapting a wide range of Vitis vinifera L. cultivars in a changing climate

Climate can greatly affect grape yield and quality (van Leeuwen et al., 2024). Growing suitable cultivars in a given region and or breed environmental resilient cultivars are essential for maintaining viticulture sustainability, particularly in the face of climate change (Wolkovich et al., 2018).

The ‘Erbaluce‘, a grapevine cultivar from which in the Canavese (Piedmont, Italy) different types of white DOC wines are obtained, is traditionally trained on a support structure commonly known as “pergola” having three to five long “cords” which consist of three cordons and canes interlaced together.

The AOC Gaillac area is divided into three main terroirs : « The left bank terraces », « The right bank coteaux » and
« The plateau Cordais ». This division is valid at a regional scale, but it suffers of a number of local-scale exceptions. This spatial variability of the pedologic-geologic characteristics at the plot scale has been derived mainly from the main late-Würmian solifluxion phase occurring at the transition between the peri-glacial climate and the Holocene temperate conditions (13,000-10,000 yrs BP).

The shelf life of wine is a major concern for the wine industry. This is particularly true for wines intended for long cellaring, which are supposed to reach their peak after an ageing period ranging from a few months to several years, or even decades. Low, controlled oxygen inputs through the closure system are generally necessary for the wine to evolve towards its optimum organoleptic characteristics. Our previous studies have already shown that the interface between the cork and the bottleneck plays a crucial role in the transfer of oxygen into the bottled wine.

Grapevine yield is a key indicator to assess the impacts of climate change and the relevance of adaptation strategies in a vineyard landscape. At this scale, a yield model should use a number of parameters and input data in relation to the information available and be able to reproduce vineyard management decisions (e.g. soil and canopy management, irrigation). In this study, we used data from six experimental sites in Southern France (cv. Syrah) to calibrate a model of grapevine yield limited by water constraint (GraY). Each yield component (bud fertility, number of berries per bunch, berry weight) was calculated as a function of the soil water availability simulated by the WaLIS water balance model at critical phenological phases. The model was then evaluated in 10 grapegrowers’ plots, covering a diversity of biophysical and technical contexts (soil type, canopy size, irrigation, cover crop). We identified three critical periods for yield formation: after flowering on the previous year for the number of bunches and berries, around pre-veraison and post-veraison of the same year for mean berry weight. Yields were simulated with a model efficiency (EF) of 0.62 (NRMSE = 0.28). Bud fertility and number of berries per bunch were more accurately simulated (EF = 0.90 and 0.77, NRMSE = 0.06 and 0.10, respectively) than berry weight (EF = -0.31, NRMSE = 0.17). Model efficiency on the on-farm plots reached 0.71 (NRMSE = 0.37) simulating yields from 1 to 8 kg/plant. The GraY model is an original model estimating grapevine yield evolution on the basis of water availability under future climatic conditions.  It allows to evaluate the effects of various adaptation levers such as planting density, cover crop management, fruit/leaf ratio, shading and irrigation, in various production contexts.