A fine-scale approach to map bioclimatic indices using and comparing dynamical and geostatistical methods

The maturation patterns process has been very studied. In particular the modelization of the sugars and titratable acidity during the ripening period was an important approach, in particular for the prediction of harvest date (Barillere et al., 1988; Jourion et al.,1987; Maujean et al., 1983; Scienza, 1989). In Oltrepò Pavese, the widest viticultural district of Lombardy – Northern Italy – (about 15000 hectares), grape maturation trends shows high variability, due to the large variation in environmental characteristics of vineyards (altitude, exposure, soil type, mesoclimate) and to “cultivar x environment” interaction.

Grapevines are cultivated on 6 out of 7 continents, roughly between latitudes 4° and 56° in the Northern Hemisphere and between 6° and 42° in the Southern Hemisphere across a large diversity of climates (oceanic, warm oceanic, transition temperate, continental, cold continental, Mediterranean, subtropical, attenuated tropical, and arid climates).

Current climate change is increasing inter- and intra-annual variability in atmospheric conditions leading to grapevine phenological shifts as well altered grape ripening and composition at ripeness. This study aims to (i) detect weather anomalies within a long-term time series, (ii) model grape ripening revealing altered traits in time to target specific ripeness thresholds for four Vitis vinifera cultivars, and (iii) establish empirical relationships between ripening and weather anomalies with forecasting purposes. The Day of the Year (DOY) to reach specific grape ripeness targets was determined from time series of sugar concentrations, total acidity and pH collected from a private company in the period 2009-2021 in North-Eastern Italy. Non-linear models for the DOY to reach the specified ripeness thresholds were assessed for model efficiency (EF) and error of prediction (RMSE) in four grapevine cultivars (Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, Glera and Garganega). For each vintage and cultivar, advances or delays in DOY to target specified ripeness thresholds were assessed with respect to the average ripening dynamics. Long-term meteorological series monitored at ground weather station by means of hourly air temperature and rainfall data were analyzed. Climate statistics were obtained and for each time period (month, bimester, quarter and year) weather anomalies were identified. A linear regression analysis was performed to assess a possible correlation that may exist between ripening and weather anomalies. For each cultivar, ripeness advances or delays expressed in number of days to target the specific ripening threshold were assessed in relation to registered weather anomalies and the specific reference time period in the vintage. Precipitation of the warmest month and spring quarter are key to understanding the effect of climate change on sugar ripeness. Minimum temperatures of May-June bimester and maximum temperatures of spring quarter best correlate with altered total acidity evolution and pH increment during the ripening process, respectively.

Global warming is responsible for a lack of organic acid in grape berries, leading to wines with higher pH and lower titrable acidity. The chemical, microbiological and organoleptic equilibriums are impacted by this change of organic acid concentration. It is common practice to acidify the wine in order to prevent these imbalances that can lead to wine defects and early spoilage. Tartaric acid (TA) is most commonly used by winemaker for wine acidification purposes. Fumaric acid (FA), which is authorized by the OIV in its member states for the inhibition of malolactic fermentation, could also be used as a potential acidification candidate since it has a better acidifying power than tartaric acid.

Historical records of grapevine phenology have been collected over decades throughout different winegrowing regions. These records have demonstrated advances in key developmental stages such as budburst, flowering and veraison because of increased temperatures due to climate change.