How sensor technologies combined with artificial intelligence increase the efficiency in grapevine breeding (research): current developments and future perspectives

Aims: The aims of this study were to i) characterize the impact of geographical origin and viticulture treatments on Chilean Cabernet-Sauvignon, and ii) develop machine learning models to predict its quality. 

The Columbia Basin, a semi-arid region centered in the eastern part of Washington State, is the second largest wine grape growing region in the United States and presently contains 10 American Viticultural Areas

Moschofilero is a native grape variety, classified as a ‘gris’ type variety, that is cultivated in PDO Mantineia, Peloponissos, Greece. It is used for the production of both white and rosé wines. Due to high altitude of the vineyards, the harvest is done by mid October, and many vintages are characterised by high acidities and low pH values.

A large varietal collection including over 1700 varieties was maintained in Conegliano, ITA, since the 1950s. Phenological data on a subset of 400 grape varieties including wine grapes, table grapes, and raisins were acquired at bud break, flowering, veraison, and ripening since 1964. Despite the efforts in maintaining and acquiring data over such an extensive collection, the data set has varying degrees of missing cases depending on the variety and the year. This is ubiquitous in phenology datasets with significant size and length. In this work, we evaluated four state-of-the-art methods to estimate missing values in this phenological series: k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (mice), MissForest, and Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series (BRITS). For each phenological stage, we evaluated the performance of the methods in two ways. 1) On the full dataset, we randomly hold-out 10% of the true values for use as a test set and repeated the process 1000 times (Monte Carlo cross-validation). 2) On a reduced and almost complete subset of varieties, we varied the percentage of missing values from 10% to 70% by random deletion. In all cases, we evaluated the performance on the original values using normalized root mean squared error. For the full dataset we also obtained performance statistics by variety and by year. MissForest provided average errors of 17% (3 days) at budbreak, 14% (4 days) at flowering, 14.5% (7 days) at veraison, and 17% (3 days) at maturity. We completed the imputations of the Conegliano dataset, one of the world’s most extensive and varied phenological time series and a steppingstone for future climate change studies in grapes. The dataset is now ready for further analysis, and a rigorous evaluation of imputation errors is included.

Accurate and early yield estimation in vineyards is essential for the effective management of resources and informed decision-making in viticulture.