Fine scale climate shifts for present and future Uruguayan viticulture

Abstract

Climate change (CC) strongly affects grapevine development and wine typicity, driving shifts in the geographical distribution of viticulture. While global projections provide valuable insights, they often neglect fine-scale climatic variability, which is critical for site-specific vineyard management. This study assesses current and future viticultural climates in Uruguay and evaluates fine-scale projections for the emerging Atlantic coastal wine region. Observed daily temperature and precipitation data (1994–2023) from the Uruguayan Meteorological Institute were used to compute six viticulture-related indices (GDD, HI, rainfall, GFV, GSR for Tannat and Albariño). Data were spatialised at a 1-km resolution using a hybrid geostatistical model based on topographic and coastal predictors. Future climate projections were derived from twelve bias-corrected CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, downscaled to 1 km resolution using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) approach consistent with the ADVICLIM framework. Current conditions reveal a marked north–south thermal gradient, with the Huglin Index averaging 2374 ± 174, classifying northern regions as warm (IH5) and southeastern coastal vineyards as temperate (IH3–IH4). Projections indicate a progressive shift toward warmer classes, reaching +2 °C under SSP2-4.5 and up to +4 °C under SSP5-8.5 by 2100. Most regions currently temperate-warm (IH4) are expected to become warm (IH5) by mid-century and very warm (IH6) by the end of the century, while the Atlantic coast remains a climatic buffer. Phenological indices project earlier flowering and ripening of Tannat by two to four weeks, especially inland, reflecting accelerated vine development. At a finer scale, downscaling over the Garzón region highlights significant topographic and oceanic influences on spatial variability, emphasizing the need to consider microclimatic heterogeneity in adaptation strategies. These results underline the value of high-resolution modelling for guiding regional planning and promoting sustainable viticulture under future conditions.

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Acknowledgments

We thank INUMET for providing the climatic data, Ecosud and ClimatAmSud for funding of the research. We also acknowledge Germán Bruzzone and Manuel Macchiavello from Bodega Garzón.