Terroir 2020 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Future projections for chilling and heat forcing for European vineyards

Future projections for chilling and heat forcing for European vineyards

Abstract

Aims: The aims of this study were: (1) to compute recent-past thermal conditions over European vineyards, using state-of-the art bioclimatic indices: chilling portions and growing degree hours; (2) to compute future changes of these thermal conditions using a large ensemble of high-resolution climate models.

Methods and Results: To assess grapevine chilling and forcing conditions, chilling portions (CP) and growing degree-hours (GDH) indices were computed for the baseline period (1989–2005) and for the future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (2041–2060), using several regional-global climate model chains. These calculations also considered model uncertainties and biases. These indices were extracted to the current location of vineyards, in Europe and CP-GDH delimitations were assessed. For the baseline period, higher CP values were found in north-central European regions, while lower values tend to occur on opposed sides of Europe (east-west). Regarding forcing, southern European wine regions currently display the highest GDH values. Future projections depict lower CP in southwestern Europe (-45%) and higher CP (+30%) in Eastern Europe. For GDH, most of Europe is projected to have greater values (up to +30%). 

Conclusions: 

These changes may bring limitations to some of the world’s most important wine producers, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. Nevertheless, a timely planning of appropriate adaptation measures may aid mitigating future yield/quality losses and improve the future sustainability of the winemaking sector. 

Significance and Impact of the Study: Temperature is a fundamental factor affecting plant growth and development rates. Grapevines have thermal thresholds for adequate growth, physiological development and phenology. Given the future projections for Europe, it is evident that grapevine productivity may be particularly vulnerable to climatic change.  As such, it become imperative to study how future temperature conditions will affect vineyards in Europe, namely the chilling and heat forcing conditions.

DOI:

Publication date: March 17, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2020

Type: Video

Authors

Helder Fraga* and João A. Santos

Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal

Contact the author

Keywords

Climate change, chilling, head forcing, viticulture, Europe 

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2020

Citation

Related articles…

Seed phenolics oxidation: development of a new ripening index 

During ripening seed tannins evolve, as demonstrated by the taste and color changes. In this work we tried to develop an objective, easy and fast index, useful for winemakers. In this direction we propose two different spectrophotometric indexes, one related to the molecular structure and tannin subunits linkages, and the other related to the antioxidant properties. Especially the second one gave very interesting and unexpected results.

Defining gene regulation and co-regulation at single cell resolution in grapevine

Conventional molecular analyses provide bulk genomic/transcriptomic data that are unable to reveal the cellular heterogeneity and to precisely define how gene networks orchestrate organ development. We will profile gene expression and identify open chromatin regions at the individual cells level, allowing to define cell-type specific regulatory elements, developmental trajectories and transcriptional networks orchestrating organ development and function. We will perform scRNA-seq and snATAC-seq on leaf/berry protoplasts and nuclei and combine them with the leaf/berry bulk tissues obtained results, where the analysis of transcripts, chromatin accessibility, histone modification and transcription factor binding sites showed that a large fraction of phenotypic variation appears to be determined by regulatory rather than coding variation and that many variants have an organ-specific effect.

Melatonin priming retards fungal decay in postharvest table grapes 

Postharvest losses of fruits may reach in some cases 40% in developed countries. This food waste has a significant carbon footprint and makes a major contribution toward greenhouse gas emissions so sustainable postharvest strategies are being investigated.
Melatonin, a well-known mammalian neurohormone, has been investigated as a priming agent to slow down fungal decay progression in postharvest climacteric and some non-climacteric fruits. However, the molecular and metabolic mechanisms responsible for such enhancement of disease tolerance are largely unknown.

Les propriétés de réflectance du sol de la parcelle sont à considerer comme des paramètres du terroir

Suite à des expérimentations de solarisation artificielle réalisées en 1999 en conditions réelles de culture, à partir de matériels réfléchissants partiellement colorés en vert, en bleu

Kinetic study of browning caused by laccase activity using different substrates

To our knowledge all the studies about laccase kinetics and its inhibition have been performed with substrates and conditions very different from those of real grape juice. Moreover, none of these researches really measure enzymatic browning, since they have not taken into account what happens after the oxidation of o-diphenols in o-diquinones and their subsequent polymerization to form melanins1. For that reason, the aim of this research was to develop a new model to measure the kinetics of browning caused by Botrytis cinerea laccase under conditions much closer to those of grape juice and using the substrates naturally present in it.