Terroir 2020 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Abstract

Aim: Global climate change affects regional climates and hold implications for wine growing regions worldwide (Jones, 2007, 2015; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). The prospect of 21st century climate change consequently is one of the major challenges facing the wine industry (Keller, 2010). They vary from short-term impacts on wine quality and style, to long-term issues such as varietal suitability and the economic sustainability of traditional wine growing regions (Schultz and Jones 2010; Quénol, 2014). Within the context of a global changing climate, we have decided to develop a modelling approach, able to simulate the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine behaviour and to highlight potential adaptation strategies according to different climate change scenarios. 

Methods and Results: Our modeling approach, named SEVE (Simulating Environmental impacts on Viticultural Ecosystems), present a generic modeling environment for simulating grapevine growth and berry ripening under different conditions and constraints (slope, aspect, soil type, climate variability, etc.) as well as production strategies and adaptation rules according to climate change scenarios.Each activity is represented by an autonomous agent able to react and adapt its reaction to the variability of environmental constraints. Agents are distinguished according to their objectives: “Supervisors” Agent plays an overseeing role in the model, “Winegrower” Agents aim to grow grapes and produce wine that meets precise specifications according to their end-product goals and “Vine” Agents are grape production entities. The relationships between these three types of agents determine the production strategies adopted by the winegrowers. According to two scenarios of climate change, several prospective simulations have been implemented, in the context of the European ADVICLIM project (http://www.adviclim.eu/), to compare adaptation strategies at European scale. Through different experiments in France, United Kingdom, Romania, Germany and Spain, the SEVE model provides potential adaptation strategies tendencies from short-term to long-term adjustment. Simulation results underline that small-scale variability is strongly linked with vine phenology and ripeness potential. Over the next century, winegrowers will likely be confronted with increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns that will have important impacts on agronomic practices (increase/decrease of fungicide treatments or soil management practices depending on site and scenario) and adaptation strategies (management of frost risk or heat waves, plant material adaptation, change in vine training system, etc.).

Conclusion:

The modelling approach presented in this paper addresses the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine phenology and management strategies. The SEVE model is able to reproduce the dynamics of vine growing and agronomic choices and practices according to climate variability. In the context of climate change, such a dynamic model will help to better assess potential impacts on vine behaviour and to identify potential adaptation pathways.

Significance of and Impact of the Study: As climate is a key factor of grapevine growth and fruit ripening, winegrowers are constantly adjusting their plot- to farm-level decision-making in response to climate variations. With a global changing climate, winegrowers are therefore required to continue developing adaptation strategies that deal with both short- and long-term climate changes, while likewise accounting for local vulnerability to avoid mal-adaptation. Based on a modelling approach, this study aims to identify and prioritise some rational adaptation strategies at local vineyard scales.

DOI:

Publication date: March 17, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2020

Type: Video

Authors

Cyril Tissot1*, Mathias Rouan1, Théo Petitjean2, Laurence David1, Renan Le Roux3, Hervé Quenol4, Etienne Neethling5, Laure de Resseguier2, Cornelis van Leeuwen2, Irima Liviu6, Cristi Patriche6

1UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Brest, France
2ISVV, Villenave-d’Ornon, France
3CIRAD, Montpellier, France
4UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Rennes, France
5ESA, Angers, France
6University of Agricultural Sciences, Iasi, Romania

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, production strategies, climate change, multi-agents model, adaptation

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2020

Citation

Related articles…

Climate change impacts: a multi-stress issue

With the aim of producing premium wines, it is admitted that moderate environmental stresses may contribute to the accumulation of compounds of interest in grapes. However the ongoing climate change, with the appearance of more limiting conditions of production is a major concern for the wine industry economic. Will it be possible to maintain the vineyards in place, to preserve the current grape varieties and how should we anticipate the adaptation measures to ensure the sustainability of vineyards? In this context, the question of the responses and adaptation of grapevine to abiotic stresses becomes a major scientific issue to tackle. An abiotic stress can be defined as the effect of a specific factor of the physico-chemical environment of the plants (temperature, availability of water and minerals, light, etc.) which reduces growth, and for a crop such as the vine, the yield, the composition of the fruits and the sustainability of the plants. Water stress is in many minds, but a systemic vision is essential for at least two reasons. The first reason is that in natural environments, a single factor is rarely limiting, and plants have to deal with a combination of constraints, as for example heat and drought, both in time and at a given time. The second reason is that plants, including grapevine, have central mechanisms of stress responses, as redox regulatory pathways, that play an important role in adaptation and survival. Here we will review the most recent studies dealing with this issue to provide a better understanding of the grapevine responses to a combination of environmental constraints and of the underlying regulatory pathways, which may be very helpful to design more adapted solutions to cope with climate change.

A blueprint for managing vine physiological balance at different spatial and temporal scales in Champagne

In Champagne, the vine adaptation to different climatic and technical changes during these last 20 years can be seen through physiological balance disruptions. These disruptions emphasize the general grapevine decline. Since the 2000s, among other nitrogen stress indicators, the must nitrogen has been decreasing. The combination of restricted mineral fertilizers and herbicide use, the growing variability of spring rainfall, the increasing thermal stress as well as the soil type heterogeneity are only a few underlying factors that trigger loss of physiological balance in the vineyards. It is important to weigh and quantify the impact of these factors on the vine. In order to do so, the Comité Champagne uses two key-tools: networking and modelization. The use of quantitative and harmonized ecophysiological indicators is necessary, especially in large spatial scales such as the Champagne appellation. A working group with different professional structures of Champagne has been launched by the Comité Champagne in order to create a common ecophysiology protocol and thus monitor the vine physiology, yearly, around 100 plots, with various cultural practices and types of soil. The use of crop modelling to follow the vine physiological balance within different pedoclimatic conditions enables to understand the present balance but also predict the possible disruptions to come in future climatic scenarios. The physiological references created each year through the working group, benefit the calibration of the STICS model used in Champagne. In return, the model delivers ecophysiology indicators, on a daily scale and can be used on very different types of soils. This study will present the bottom-up method used to give accurate information on the impacts of soil, climate and cultural practices on vine physiology.

Bioclimatic shifts and land use options for Viticulture in Portugal

Land use, plays a relevant role in the climatic system. It endows means for agriculture practices thus contributing to the food supply. Since climate and land are closely intertwined through multiple interface processes, climate change may lead to significant impacts in land use. In this study, 1-km observational gridded datasets are used to assess changes in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS)

Effect of multi-level and multi-scale spectral data source on vineyard state assessment

Currently, the main goal of agriculture is to promote the resilience of agricultural systems in a sustainable way through the improvement of use efficiency of farm resources, increasing crop yield and quality under climate change conditions. This last is expected to drastically modify plant growth, with possible negative effects, especially in arid and semi-arid regions of Europe on the viticultural sector. In this context, the monitoring of spatial behavior of grapevine during the growing season represents an opportunity to improve the plant management, winegrowers’ incomes, and to preserve the environmental health, but it has additional costs for the farmer. Nowadays, UAS equipped with a VIS-NIR multispectral camera (blue, green, red, red-edge, and NIR) represents a good and relatively cheap solution to assess plant status spatial information (by means of a limited set of spectral vegetation indices), representing important support in precision agriculture management during the growing season. While differences between UAS-based multispectral imagery and point-based spectroscopy are well discussed in the literature, their impact on plant status estimation by vegetation indices is not completely investigated in depth. The aim of this study was to assess the performance level of UAS-based multispectral (5 bands across 450-800nm spectral region with a spatial resolution of 5cm) imagery, reconstructed high-resolution satellite (Sentinel-2A) multispectral imagery (13 bands across 400-2500 nm with spatial resolution of <2 m) through Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach, and point-based field spectroscopy (collecting 600 wavelengths across 400-1000 nm spectral region with a surface footprint of 1-2 cm) in a plant status estimation application, and then, using Bayesian regularization artificial neural network for leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) and plant water status (LWP) prediction. The test site is a Greco vineyard of southern Italy, where detailed and precise records on soil and atmosphere systems, in-vivo plant monitoring of eco-physiological parameters have been conducted.

Grapevine yield-gap: identification of environmental limitations by soil and climate zoning in Languedoc-Roussillon region (south of France)

Grapevine yield has been historically overlooked, assuming a strong trade-off between grape yield and wine quality. At present, menaced by climate change, many vineyards in Southern France are far from the quality label threshold, becoming grapevine yield-gaps a major subject of concern. Although yield-gaps are well studied in arable crops, we know very little about grapevine yield-gaps. In the present study, we analysed the environmental component of grapevine yield-gaps linked to climate and soil resources in the Languedoc Roussillon. We used SAFRAN data and IGP Pays d’Oc wine yields from 2010 to 2018. We selected climate and soil indicators proving to have a significant effect on average wine yield-gaps at the municipality scale. The most significant factors of grapevine yield were the Soil Available Water Capacity; followed by the Huglin Index and the Climatic Dryness Index. The Days of Frost; the Soil pH; and the Very Hot Days were also significant. Then, we clustered geographical zones presenting similar indicators, facilitating the identification of resources yield-gaps. We discussed the number of zones with the experts of IGP Pays d’Oc label, obtaining 7 zones with similar limitations for grapevine yield. Finally, we analysed the main resources causing yield-gaps and the grapevine varieties planted on each zone. Mapping grapevine resource yield-gaps are the first stage for understanding grapevine yield-gaps at the regional scale.