Terroir 2020 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Abstract

Aim: Global climate change affects regional climates and hold implications for wine growing regions worldwide (Jones, 2007, 2015; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). The prospect of 21st century climate change consequently is one of the major challenges facing the wine industry (Keller, 2010). They vary from short-term impacts on wine quality and style, to long-term issues such as varietal suitability and the economic sustainability of traditional wine growing regions (Schultz and Jones 2010; Quénol, 2014). Within the context of a global changing climate, we have decided to develop a modelling approach, able to simulate the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine behaviour and to highlight potential adaptation strategies according to different climate change scenarios. 

Methods and Results: Our modeling approach, named SEVE (Simulating Environmental impacts on Viticultural Ecosystems), present a generic modeling environment for simulating grapevine growth and berry ripening under different conditions and constraints (slope, aspect, soil type, climate variability, etc.) as well as production strategies and adaptation rules according to climate change scenarios.Each activity is represented by an autonomous agent able to react and adapt its reaction to the variability of environmental constraints. Agents are distinguished according to their objectives: “Supervisors” Agent plays an overseeing role in the model, “Winegrower” Agents aim to grow grapes and produce wine that meets precise specifications according to their end-product goals and “Vine” Agents are grape production entities. The relationships between these three types of agents determine the production strategies adopted by the winegrowers. According to two scenarios of climate change, several prospective simulations have been implemented, in the context of the European ADVICLIM project (http://www.adviclim.eu/), to compare adaptation strategies at European scale. Through different experiments in France, United Kingdom, Romania, Germany and Spain, the SEVE model provides potential adaptation strategies tendencies from short-term to long-term adjustment. Simulation results underline that small-scale variability is strongly linked with vine phenology and ripeness potential. Over the next century, winegrowers will likely be confronted with increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns that will have important impacts on agronomic practices (increase/decrease of fungicide treatments or soil management practices depending on site and scenario) and adaptation strategies (management of frost risk or heat waves, plant material adaptation, change in vine training system, etc.).

Conclusion:

The modelling approach presented in this paper addresses the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine phenology and management strategies. The SEVE model is able to reproduce the dynamics of vine growing and agronomic choices and practices according to climate variability. In the context of climate change, such a dynamic model will help to better assess potential impacts on vine behaviour and to identify potential adaptation pathways.

Significance of and Impact of the Study: As climate is a key factor of grapevine growth and fruit ripening, winegrowers are constantly adjusting their plot- to farm-level decision-making in response to climate variations. With a global changing climate, winegrowers are therefore required to continue developing adaptation strategies that deal with both short- and long-term climate changes, while likewise accounting for local vulnerability to avoid mal-adaptation. Based on a modelling approach, this study aims to identify and prioritise some rational adaptation strategies at local vineyard scales.

DOI:

Publication date: March 17, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2020

Type: Video

Authors

Cyril Tissot1*, Mathias Rouan1, Théo Petitjean2, Laurence David1, Renan Le Roux3, Hervé Quenol4, Etienne Neethling5, Laure de Resseguier2, Cornelis van Leeuwen2, Irima Liviu6, Cristi Patriche6

1UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Brest, France
2ISVV, Villenave-d’Ornon, France
3CIRAD, Montpellier, France
4UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Rennes, France
5ESA, Angers, France
6University of Agricultural Sciences, Iasi, Romania

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, production strategies, climate change, multi-agents model, adaptation

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2020

Citation

Related articles…

Effects of graft quality on growth and grapevine-water relations

Climate change is challenging viticulture worldwide compromising its sustainability due to warmer temperatures and the increased frequency of extreme events. Grafting Vitis vinifera L.

Modulation of berry composition by different vineyard management practices

High concentration of sugars in grapes and alcohol in wines is one of the consequences of climate change on viticulture production in several wine-growing regions. In order to investigate the possibilities of adaptation of vineyard management practices aimed to reduce the accumulation of sugar during the maturation phase without reducing the accumulation of anthocyanins in grapes, a study with severe shoot trimming, shoot thinning, cluster thinning and date of harvest was conducted on Merlot variety in Istria region (Croatia), under the Mediterranean climate. Four factors which may affect grape maturation and its composition at harvest were investigated in a two-years experiment; severe shoot trimming applied at veraison when >80% of berries changed colour (in comparison to untreated control), shoot thinning (0 and 30%), cluster thinning (0 and 30%), and the date of harvest (early and standard harvest dates). Shoot thinning had no significant impact on berry composition, despite the obtained reduction in yield per vine. Lower Brix in grapes were obtained with earlier harvest date and if no cluster thinning was applied, although at the same time a reduction in the concentration of anthocyanins in berries was observed in these treatments. On the other hand, if severe shoot trimming was applied when >80% of berries changed colour, a reduction of Brix was obtained without a negative impact on berry anthocyanins concentration. We conclude that in cases when undesirably high sugar concentrations at harvest are expected, severe shoot trimming at 80% veraison may effectively be used in order to obtain moderate sugar concentration in berries together with the adequate phenolic composition.

Grapevine xylem embolism resistance spectrum reveals which varieties have a lower mortality risk in a future dry climate

Wine growing regions have recently faced intense and frequent droughts that have led to substantial economical losses, and the maintenance of grapevine productivity under warmer and drier climate will rely notably on planting drought-resistant cultivars. Given that plant growth and yield depend on water transport efficiency and maintenance of photosynthesis, thus on the preservation of the vascular system integrity during drought, a better understanding of drought-related hydraulic traits that have a significant impact on physiological processes is urgently needed. We have worked towards this end by assessing vulnerability to xylem embolism in 30 grapevine commercial varieties encompassing red and white Vitis vinifera varieties, hybrid varieties characterized by a polygenic resistance for powdery and downy mildew, and commonly used rootstocks. These analyses further allowed a global assessment of wine regions with respect to their varietal diversity and resulting vulnerability to stem embolism. Hybrid cultivars displayed the highest vulnerability to embolism, while rootstocks showed the greatest resistance. Significant variability also arose among Vitis vinifera varieties, with Ψ12 and Ψ50 values ranging from -0.4 to -2.7 MPa and from -1.8 to -3.4 MPa, respectively. Cabernet franc, Chardonnay and Ugni blanc featured among the most vulnerable varieties while Pinot noir, Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon ranked among the most resistant. In consequence, wine regions bearing a significant proportion of vulnerable varieties, such as Poitou-Charentes, France and Marlborough, New Zealand, turned out to be at greater risk under drought. These results highlight that grapevine varieties may not respond equally to warmer and drier conditions, outlining the importance to consider hydraulic traits associated with plant drought tolerance into breeding programmes and modeling simulations of grapevine yield maintenance under severe drought. They finally represent a step forward to advise the wine industry about which varieties and regions would have the lowest risk of drought-induced mortality under climate change.

How does aromatic composition of red wines, resulting from varieties adapted to climate change, modulate fruity aroma?

One of the major issues for the wine sector is the impact of climate change linked to the increasing temperatures which affects physicochemical parameters of the grape varieties planted in Bordeaux vineyard and consequently, the quality of wine. In some varietals, the attenuation of their fresh fruity character is accompanied by the accentuation of dried-fruit notes [1]. As a new adaptive strategy on climate change, some winegrowers have initiated changes in the Bordeaux blend of vine varieties [2]. This study intends to explore the fruitiness in wines produced from grape varieties adapted to the future climate of Bordeaux. 10 commercial single–varietal wines from 2018 vintage made from the main grape varieties in the Bordeaux region (Cabernet franc, Cabernet-Sauvignon and Merlot) as well as from indigenous grape varieties from the Mediterranean basin, such as Cyprus (Yiannoudin), France (Syrah), Greece (Agiorgitiko and Xinomavro), Portugal (Touriga Nacional) and Spain (Garnacha and Tempranillo), were selected among 19 samples using sensory descriptive analyses. Both sensory and instrumental analyses were coupled, to investigate their fruity aroma expression. For sensory analysis, samples were prepared from wine, using a semi preparative HPLC method which preserves wine aroma and isolates fruity characteristics in 25 specific fractions [3,4]. Fractions of interest with intense fruity aromas were sensorially selected for each wine by a trained panel and mixed with ethanol and microfiltered water to obtain fruity aromatic reconstitutions (FAR) [5]. A free sorting task was applied to categorize FAR according to their similarities or dissimilarities, and different clusters were highlighted. Instrumental analysis of the different FAR and wines demonstrated variations in their molecular composition. Results obtained from sensory and gas chromatography analysis enrich the knowledge of the fruity expression of red wines from “new” grape varieties opening up new perspectives in wine technology, including blending, thus providing new tools for producers.

A spatial explicit inventory of EU wine protected designation of origin to support decision making in a changing climate

Winemaking areas recognized as protected designations of origin (PDOs) shape important economic, environmental and cultural values that are tied to closely defined geographic locations. To preserve wine products and wine-growing practices adopted in different PDOs these areas are strictly regulated by legal specifications. However, quality viticulture is increasingly under pressure from climate change, which is altering the local conditions of many winegrowing areas. Therefore, maintaining traditional wine products will require the adoption of tailored adaptation strategies, including possible changes in the legal regulation of protected wines. To this end, it is necessary to have a comprehensive knowledge on PDOs including their extension, products and allowed practices. While there have been efforts to build databases that summarize the characteristics for individual wine PDO areas and to quantify the related effects of climate change, much information is still included only in the official documentation of the EU geographical indication register and has never been collected in a comprehensive manner. With this study we aim at filling this gap by building a spatial inventory of European wine PDOs that supports decision making in viticulture in the context of climate change. To map and characterize European wine PDOs, we analysed their legal documents and extracted relevant information useful for climate change adaptation. The output consists of a comprehensive geographical dataset that identifies the boundaries of all 1200 European wine PDOs at unprecedented spatial resolution and includes a set of legally binding regulations, such as authorized vine varieties, maximum yields and planting density. The inventory will allow researchers to analyse the impacts of climate change on European wine PDOs and support decision makers in developing tailored adaptation strategies. This includes, among others, the evaluation of new vineyard site selection, the expansion of cultivated varieties or the authorization of irrigation in vineyards.