Terroir 2020 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Abstract

Aim: Global climate change affects regional climates and hold implications for wine growing regions worldwide (Jones, 2007, 2015; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). The prospect of 21st century climate change consequently is one of the major challenges facing the wine industry (Keller, 2010). They vary from short-term impacts on wine quality and style, to long-term issues such as varietal suitability and the economic sustainability of traditional wine growing regions (Schultz and Jones 2010; Quénol, 2014). Within the context of a global changing climate, we have decided to develop a modelling approach, able to simulate the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine behaviour and to highlight potential adaptation strategies according to different climate change scenarios. 

Methods and Results: Our modeling approach, named SEVE (Simulating Environmental impacts on Viticultural Ecosystems), present a generic modeling environment for simulating grapevine growth and berry ripening under different conditions and constraints (slope, aspect, soil type, climate variability, etc.) as well as production strategies and adaptation rules according to climate change scenarios.Each activity is represented by an autonomous agent able to react and adapt its reaction to the variability of environmental constraints. Agents are distinguished according to their objectives: “Supervisors” Agent plays an overseeing role in the model, “Winegrower” Agents aim to grow grapes and produce wine that meets precise specifications according to their end-product goals and “Vine” Agents are grape production entities. The relationships between these three types of agents determine the production strategies adopted by the winegrowers. According to two scenarios of climate change, several prospective simulations have been implemented, in the context of the European ADVICLIM project (http://www.adviclim.eu/), to compare adaptation strategies at European scale. Through different experiments in France, United Kingdom, Romania, Germany and Spain, the SEVE model provides potential adaptation strategies tendencies from short-term to long-term adjustment. Simulation results underline that small-scale variability is strongly linked with vine phenology and ripeness potential. Over the next century, winegrowers will likely be confronted with increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns that will have important impacts on agronomic practices (increase/decrease of fungicide treatments or soil management practices depending on site and scenario) and adaptation strategies (management of frost risk or heat waves, plant material adaptation, change in vine training system, etc.).

Conclusion:

The modelling approach presented in this paper addresses the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine phenology and management strategies. The SEVE model is able to reproduce the dynamics of vine growing and agronomic choices and practices according to climate variability. In the context of climate change, such a dynamic model will help to better assess potential impacts on vine behaviour and to identify potential adaptation pathways.

Significance of and Impact of the Study: As climate is a key factor of grapevine growth and fruit ripening, winegrowers are constantly adjusting their plot- to farm-level decision-making in response to climate variations. With a global changing climate, winegrowers are therefore required to continue developing adaptation strategies that deal with both short- and long-term climate changes, while likewise accounting for local vulnerability to avoid mal-adaptation. Based on a modelling approach, this study aims to identify and prioritise some rational adaptation strategies at local vineyard scales.

DOI:

Publication date: March 17, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2020

Type: Video

Authors

Cyril Tissot1*, Mathias Rouan1, Théo Petitjean2, Laurence David1, Renan Le Roux3, Hervé Quenol4, Etienne Neethling5, Laure de Resseguier2, Cornelis van Leeuwen2, Irima Liviu6, Cristi Patriche6

1UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Brest, France
2ISVV, Villenave-d’Ornon, France
3CIRAD, Montpellier, France
4UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Rennes, France
5ESA, Angers, France
6University of Agricultural Sciences, Iasi, Romania

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, production strategies, climate change, multi-agents model, adaptation

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2020

Citation

Related articles…

How can historical cultivars mitigate the effects of climate change?

IFV, INRAe and the national network “Partenaires de la Sélection Vigne” representing 37 organizations from the different wine regions, have been working increasingly closely over the last 2 decades towards the preservation of the French varietal patrimony. There are approximately 600 patrimonial varieties according to INRAe and SupAgro Montpellier experts, including ancient cultivars (400) and intravarietal crossbreeds obtained since the 19th century. In the context of a drastic reduction in such varieties from the mid 1980’s in favor of mainstream varieties, it was essential to carry out an inventory of old vines and vineyards. INRAe Vassal collection plays a key role here as it holds the largest diversity available, along with a rich bibliography and herbariums, offering us the opportunity to document and double check the identity of a cultivar, consolidating the expertise of ampelographers. The work is carried out in several stages, from verifying the existence of a variety in a small region, through to rehabilitation. During this session, the authors present the process that leads to the official registration of a variety. After this, IFV selection center takes over to initiate the process of selection and propagation. A specific focus within regions such as the Alps, Champagne and the South-West will provide details of the full procedure. Bia, Bouysselet, Chardonnay rose, Mecle and the aptly named Tardif, are some of the cultivars that have followed this procedure. Furthermore, a recent regulation established by INAO on “varieties of interest for adaptation purposes” might boost uptake by growers. Since 2006, 36 historical cultivars have been registered. Most of these have been neglected in the past due to late maturity, lack of sugar and high titratable acidity at harvest time. Such characteristics are today considered as positive qualities, not only in mitigation of the effects of climate change, but also as an opportunity for restoring diversity…

Climate change projections to support the transition to climate-smart viticulture

The Earth’s system is undergoing major changes through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales as a response to growing anthropogenic radiative forcing, which is pushing the whole system far beyond its natural variability. Sources of greenhouse gases largely exceed their sinks, thus leading to a strengthened greenhouse effect. More energy is thereby being supplied to the system, with inevitable shifts in climatic patterns and weather regimes. Over the last decades, these modifications have been manifested in the full statistical distributions of the atmospheric variables, with dramatic changes in the frequency and intensity of extremes. Natural hazards, such as severe droughts, floods, forest fires, or heatwaves, are being triggered by extreme atmospheric events worldwide, thus threatening human activities. Viticultculture is not only exposed to changing climates but is also highly vulnerable, as grapevine phenology and physiological development are strongly controlled by atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the assessment of climate change projections for a given region is critical for climate change adaptation and risk reduction in viticulture. By adopting timely and suitable measures, the future sustainability and resiliency of the sector can be fostered. Climate-grapevine chain modelling is an essential tool for better planning and management. However, the accuracy of the resulting projections is limited by many uncertainties that must be duly taken into account when transferring knowledge to stakeholders and decision-makers. Climate-smart viticulture will comprise ensembles of locally tuned strategies, envisioning both adaptation and mitigation, assisted by emerging technologies and decision-support systems.

The use of rootstock as a lever in the face of climate change and dieback of vineyard

As viticulture faces challenges such as climate change or vineyard dieback, the choice of the variety and rootstock becomes more and more crucial. To study rootstock levers in the Bordeaux region, a parcel of Cabernet Sauvignon (CS) was planted with four rootstocks in 2014. Twenty repetitions of each of the following four rootstocks were set up: 101-14 MGt, Nemadex AB, 420A MGt and Gravesac. The number of bunches, yields and pruning weights of the vine shoots were measured individually on 240 vines from 2017 to 2021. Since 2020, nitrogen status assessed by assimilable nitrogen level, hydric status assessed by δ13C and berry maturity were measured on 80 samples taken from 20 repetitions of the four rootstocks. A lower yield was measured for CS grafted onto Nemadex AB due to the lower number of bunches and the lower weight of berries. The differences between the other three rootstocks are small, but CS grafted onto 420A MGt was the most productive. The CS grafted onto Nemadex AB had the lowest pruning weight while 101-14 MGt had the highest. In 2020, δ13C showed a more moderate water stress with 101-14 MGt and 420A MGt than with Nemadex AB. Surprisingly, the Gravesac was under more stress than the 101-14 MGt. The nitrogen status in the berries was better for Nemadex AB but this was perhaps due to the significantly lower weight of the berries.Rootstock 101-14 MGt attained the highest accumulation of sugars in the berries while 420A MGt allows to preserve higher acidity. The parcel is still young which may explain some of the results. These measures must therefore be continued over the next several years to fully assess the effects of these rootstocks on the development of the vines and the quality of the production under new climatic conditions.

Effect of multi-level and multi-scale spectral data source on vineyard state assessment

Currently, the main goal of agriculture is to promote the resilience of agricultural systems in a sustainable way through the improvement of use efficiency of farm resources, increasing crop yield and quality under climate change conditions. This last is expected to drastically modify plant growth, with possible negative effects, especially in arid and semi-arid regions of Europe on the viticultural sector. In this context, the monitoring of spatial behavior of grapevine during the growing season represents an opportunity to improve the plant management, winegrowers’ incomes, and to preserve the environmental health, but it has additional costs for the farmer. Nowadays, UAS equipped with a VIS-NIR multispectral camera (blue, green, red, red-edge, and NIR) represents a good and relatively cheap solution to assess plant status spatial information (by means of a limited set of spectral vegetation indices), representing important support in precision agriculture management during the growing season. While differences between UAS-based multispectral imagery and point-based spectroscopy are well discussed in the literature, their impact on plant status estimation by vegetation indices is not completely investigated in depth. The aim of this study was to assess the performance level of UAS-based multispectral (5 bands across 450-800nm spectral region with a spatial resolution of 5cm) imagery, reconstructed high-resolution satellite (Sentinel-2A) multispectral imagery (13 bands across 400-2500 nm with spatial resolution of <2 m) through Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach, and point-based field spectroscopy (collecting 600 wavelengths across 400-1000 nm spectral region with a surface footprint of 1-2 cm) in a plant status estimation application, and then, using Bayesian regularization artificial neural network for leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) and plant water status (LWP) prediction. The test site is a Greco vineyard of southern Italy, where detailed and precise records on soil and atmosphere systems, in-vivo plant monitoring of eco-physiological parameters have been conducted.

Effect of regulated deficit irrigation regime on amino acids content of Monastrell (Vitis vinifera L.) grapes

Irrigation is an important practice to influence vine quality, especially in Mediterranean regions, characterized by hot summers and severe droughts during the growing season. This study focused on deficit irrigation regime influence on amino acids composition of Monastrell grapevines under semiarid conditions (Albacete, Southeastern of Spain). In 2019, two treatments were applied: non-irrigation (NI) and regulated deficit irrigation (RDI), watered at 30% of the estimated crop evapotranspiration from fruit set to onset of veraison. Grape amino acids content was analyzed by HPLC. Berries from non-irrigated vines showed higher concentration of several amino acids, such as tryptophan (73%), arginine (70%), lysine (36%), isoleucine (27%), and leucine (21%), compared to RDI grapes. Arginine is, together with ammonium ion, the principal nitrogen source for yeasts during the alcoholic fermentation; while isoleucine, tryptophan, and leucine are precursors of fermentative volatile compounds, key compounds for wine quality. Moreover, NI treatment increased in a 14% the total amino acids content in grapes compared to RDI treatment. The reported effects might be because yield was 70% higher in RDI vines than in the NI ones and, therefore, the sink demand was increased in the irrigated vines. In addition, NI vines suffered more severe water stress and it is known that the amino acids synthesis and accumulation can be influenced by the plant response to stress. According to the results, the irrigation regime showed effect on amino acids concentration in Monastrell grapes under semiarid conditions. Grapes from non-irrigated vines showed a higher content of several amino acids relevant to the fermentative process and to the wine aroma compounds formation. It is demonstrated that the final content of nitrogen-related components in grapes is influenced by the irrigation regime. The convenience of the irrigation strategy to suggest will depend on the desired wine style and the target yield levels.