Terroir 2020 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Simulating the impact of climate change on viticultural systems in various European vineyards

Abstract

Aim: Global climate change affects regional climates and hold implications for wine growing regions worldwide (Jones, 2007, 2015; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). The prospect of 21st century climate change consequently is one of the major challenges facing the wine industry (Keller, 2010). They vary from short-term impacts on wine quality and style, to long-term issues such as varietal suitability and the economic sustainability of traditional wine growing regions (Schultz and Jones 2010; Quénol, 2014). Within the context of a global changing climate, we have decided to develop a modelling approach, able to simulate the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine behaviour and to highlight potential adaptation strategies according to different climate change scenarios. 

Methods and Results: Our modeling approach, named SEVE (Simulating Environmental impacts on Viticultural Ecosystems), present a generic modeling environment for simulating grapevine growth and berry ripening under different conditions and constraints (slope, aspect, soil type, climate variability, etc.) as well as production strategies and adaptation rules according to climate change scenarios.Each activity is represented by an autonomous agent able to react and adapt its reaction to the variability of environmental constraints. Agents are distinguished according to their objectives: “Supervisors” Agent plays an overseeing role in the model, “Winegrower” Agents aim to grow grapes and produce wine that meets precise specifications according to their end-product goals and “Vine” Agents are grape production entities. The relationships between these three types of agents determine the production strategies adopted by the winegrowers. According to two scenarios of climate change, several prospective simulations have been implemented, in the context of the European ADVICLIM project (http://www.adviclim.eu/), to compare adaptation strategies at European scale. Through different experiments in France, United Kingdom, Romania, Germany and Spain, the SEVE model provides potential adaptation strategies tendencies from short-term to long-term adjustment. Simulation results underline that small-scale variability is strongly linked with vine phenology and ripeness potential. Over the next century, winegrowers will likely be confronted with increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns that will have important impacts on agronomic practices (increase/decrease of fungicide treatments or soil management practices depending on site and scenario) and adaptation strategies (management of frost risk or heat waves, plant material adaptation, change in vine training system, etc.).

Conclusion:

The modelling approach presented in this paper addresses the impact of environmental conditions and constraints on vine phenology and management strategies. The SEVE model is able to reproduce the dynamics of vine growing and agronomic choices and practices according to climate variability. In the context of climate change, such a dynamic model will help to better assess potential impacts on vine behaviour and to identify potential adaptation pathways.

Significance of and Impact of the Study: As climate is a key factor of grapevine growth and fruit ripening, winegrowers are constantly adjusting their plot- to farm-level decision-making in response to climate variations. With a global changing climate, winegrowers are therefore required to continue developing adaptation strategies that deal with both short- and long-term climate changes, while likewise accounting for local vulnerability to avoid mal-adaptation. Based on a modelling approach, this study aims to identify and prioritise some rational adaptation strategies at local vineyard scales.

DOI:

Publication date: March 17, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2020

Type: Video

Authors

Cyril Tissot1*, Mathias Rouan1, Théo Petitjean2, Laurence David1, Renan Le Roux3, Hervé Quenol4, Etienne Neethling5, Laure de Resseguier2, Cornelis van Leeuwen2, Irima Liviu6, Cristi Patriche6

1UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Brest, France
2ISVV, Villenave-d’Ornon, France
3CIRAD, Montpellier, France
4UMR 6554 CNRS LETG, Rennes, France
5ESA, Angers, France
6University of Agricultural Sciences, Iasi, Romania

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, production strategies, climate change, multi-agents model, adaptation

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2020

Citation

Related articles…

Current climate change in the Oplenac wine-growing district (Serbia)

Serbian autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka (for white wines) and Prokupac (for rosé and red wines) are the primary representatives of typical characteristics of wines and terroir of numerous wine-growing areas in Serbia. In the past, these varieties were the leading vine varieties, however, as the result of globalization of winemaking and the trend of consumption of wines from widely prevalent vine varieties, they were replaced by introduced international varieties. Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties are characterized by later time of grape ripening, and relative sensitivity to low temperatures. Climate conditions can be a restrictive factor for production of high-quality grapes and wine and for the spatial spreading of these varieties in hilly continental wine-growing areas.
This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of changes of main climate parameters, in particular, analysis of viticultural bioclimatic indices that were determined for the purposes of viticulture zoning of wine-growing areas in the period 1961-2010, and those same parameters determined for the current, that is, referential climate period (1988-2017). Results of the research, that is, analysis of climate changes indicate that the majority of examined climate parameters in the Oplenac wine-growing district improved from the perspective of Smederevka and Prokupac vine varieties. These studies of climate conditions indicate that changes of analyzed climate parameters, that is, bioclimatic indices will be favorable for cultivation of varieties with later grape ripening times and those more sensitive to low temperatures, such as the autochthonous vine varieties Smederevka and Prokupac, therefore, it is recommended to producers to more actively plant vineyards with these varieties in the territory of the Oplenac wine-growing district.

Bioclimatic shifts and land use options for Viticulture in Portugal

Land use, plays a relevant role in the climatic system. It endows means for agriculture practices thus contributing to the food supply. Since climate and land are closely intertwined through multiple interface processes, climate change may lead to significant impacts in land use. In this study, 1-km observational gridded datasets are used to assess changes in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS)

Heatwaves and grapevine yield in the Douro region, crop model simulations

Heatwaves or extreme heat events can be particularly harmful to agriculture. Grapevines grown in the Douro winemaking region are particularly exposed to this threat, due to the specificities of the already warm and dry climatic conditions. Furthermore, climate change simulations point to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of these extreme heat events, therefore posing a major challenge to winegrowers in the Mediterranean type climates. The current study focuses on the application of the STICS crop model to assess the potential impacts of heatwaves in grapevine yields over the Douro valley winemaking region. For this purpose, STICS was applied to grapevines using high-resolution weather, soil and terrain datasets over the Douro. To assess the impact of heatwaves, the weather dataset (1989-2005) was artificially modified, generating periods with anomalously high temperatures (+5 ºC), at certain onset dates and with specific durations (from 5 to 9 days). The model was run with this modified weather dataset and results were compared to the original unmodified runs. The results show that heatwaves can have a very strong impact on grapevine yields, strongly depending on the onset dates and duration of the heatwaves. The highest negative impacts may result in a decrease in the yield by up to -35% in some regions. Despite some uncertainties inherent to the current modelling assessment, the present study highlights the negative impacts of heatwaves on viticultural yields in the Douro region, which is critical information for stakeholders within the winemaking sector for planning suitable adaptation measures.

Analysis of some environmental factors and cultural practices that affect the production and quality of the Manto Negro, Callet and Prensal Blanc varieties

45 non irrigated vineyards distributed in the DO (Denomination) Pla i Llevant de Mallorca and the DO Binissalem Mallorca were used to investigate the characteristics of production and quality and their relationships certain environmental factors and cultural practices. The grape varieties investigated are autochthonous to the island of Mallorca, Manto Negro and Callet as red and Prensal Blanc as white. All plants were measured for four consecutive years in the main production and quality parameters. Among the environmental factors, the type of soil has been studied, more specifically its water retention capacity, the planting density, the age of the vineyard and the level of viral infection. The presence or absence of virus seems to have no effect on any component studied in the varieties studied. For the white variety Prensal Blanc age is negatively correlated with production and the number of bunches, nevertheless it does not cause any effect on the required quality parameters. However, for the red varieties Callet and Manto Negro, the age of the plantation is the variable that best correlates with the quality parameters, therefore the old vines should be the object of preservation by the viticulturists and winemakers in order to guarantee its contribution to the quality of the wines made with these varieties.

The rootstock, the neglected player in the scion transpiration even during the night

Water is the main limiting factor for yield in viticulture. Improving drought adaptation in viticulture will be an increasingly important issue under climate change. Genetic variability of water deficit responses in grapevine partly results from the rootstocks, making them an attractive and relevant mean to achieve adaptation without changing the scion genotype. The objective of this work was to characterize the rootstock effect on the diurnal regulation of scion transpiration. A large panel of 55 commercial genotypes were grafted onto Cabernet Sauvignon. Three biological repetitions per genotype were analyzed. Potted plants were phenotyped on a greenhouse balance platform capable of assessing real-time water use and maintaining a targeted water deficit intensity. After a 10 days well-watered baseline period, an increasing water deficit was applied for 10 days, followed by a stable water deficit stress for 7 days. Pruning weight, root and aerial dry weight and transpiration were recorded and the experiment was repeated during two years. Transpiration efficiency (ratio between aerial biomass and transpiration) was calculated and δ13C was measured in leaves for the baseline and stable water deficit periods. A large genetic variability was observed within the panel. The rootstock had a significant impact on nocturnal transpiration which was also strongly and positively correlated with maximum daytime transpiration. The correlations with growth and water use efficiency related traits will be discussed. Transpiration data were also related with VPD and soil water content demonstrating the influence of environmental conditions on transpiration. These results highlighted the role of the rootstock in modulating water deficit responses and give insights for rootstock breeding programs aimed at identifying drought tolerant rootstocks. It was also helpful to better define the mechanisms on which the drought tolerance in grapevine rootstocks is based on.