Terroir 2010 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Abstract

In Portugal, and particularly in the Demarcated Region of Douro (DDR), wine production has a great tradition, producing the unique and worldwide famous Port wine as well as other remarkably good table wines. In this study the impact of projected climate change to wine production is analysed for the DDR. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) is developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations are identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle of grapevines. Close relationships between these climatic elements are found that influence the annual yield, with the GYM explaining over 50% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Furthermore, results point out a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements: anomalously high (low) precipitations in March, during bud break, shoot and inflorescence development are favourable (adverse) to yield, while anomalously high temperatures in May (bloom) and June (berry development) favour yield. The GYM is applied to output from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is shown to skilfully reproduce the GYM predictors. Considering ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, a slight upward trend in yield is estimated to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the 21st century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above its current values. The results emphasise the potential of using GYM coupled with regional atmospheric models to assess variations in grapevine yield owed to climate change. Complementary studies are in process in order to evaluate possible phenological shifts and wine quality impacts.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

J. A. Santos (1), A. C. Malheiro (1), M. K. Karremann (2), J. G. Pinto (2)

(1) Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
(2) Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, Douro, Portugal, yield modelling, climate scenarios, CLM

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Physiological and growth reaction of Shiraz/101-14 Mgt to row orientation and soil water status

Advanced knowledge on grapevine row orientation is required to improve establishment, management and outcomes of vineyards on terroirs with different environmental conditions (climate, soil, topography) and in view of a future change to more extreme climatic conditions. The purpose of this study was to determine the combined effect of row orientation, plant water status and ripeness level on the physiological and viticultural reaction of Shiraz/101-14 Mgt.

Effects of mechanical leafing and deficit irrigation on Cabernet Sauvignon grown in warm climate of California

San Joaquin Valley accounts for 40% of wine grape acreage and produces 70% of wine grape in California. Fruit quality is one of most important factors which impact the economical sustainability of farming wine grapes in this region. Due to the recent drought and expected labor cost increase, the wine industry is thrilled to understand how to improve fruit quality while maintaining the yield with less water and labor input. The present study aims to study the interactive effects of mechanical leafing and deficit irrigation on yield and berry compositions of Cabernet Sauvignon grown in warm climate of California.

The effects of cane girdling on berry texture properties and the concentration of some aroma compounds in three table grape cultivars

The marketability of the table grapes is highly influenced by the consumer demand; therefore the market value of the table grapes is mainly characterized by its berry size, colour, taste and texture. Girdling could cause accumulation of several components in plants above the ringing of the phloem including clusters and resulting improved maturity. The aim of the experiments was to examine the effect of girdling on berry texture characteristics and aroma concentration.

Application of a fluorescence-based method to evaluate the ripening process and quality of Pinot Blanc grape

The chemical composition of grape berries at harvest is one of the most important factors that should be considered to produce high quality wines. Among the different chemical classes which characterize the grape juice, the polyphenolic compound, such as flavonoids, contribute to the final taste and color of wines. Recently, an innovative non-destructive method, based on chlorophyll fluorescence, was developed to estimate the phenolic maturity of red grape varieties through the evaluation of anthocyanins accumulated in the berry skin. To date, only few data are available about the application of this method on white grape varieties.

Different yield regulation strategies in semi-minimal-pruned hedge (SMPH) and impact on bunch architecture

Yields in the novel viticulture training system Semi-Minimal-Pruned Hedge (SMPH) are generally higher compared to the traditional Vertical Shoot Positioning (VSP). Excessive yields have a negative impact on the vine and wine quality, which can result in substantial losses in yield in subsequent vintages (alternate bearing) or penalties in fruit quality. Therefore yield regulation is essential. The bunch architecture in SMPH differs from VSP. Generally there is a higher amount but smaller bunches with lower single berry weights in SMPH compared to VSP.