terclim by ICS banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Bioclimatic shifts and land use options for Viticulture in Portugal

Bioclimatic shifts and land use options for Viticulture in Portugal

Abstract

Land use, plays a relevant role in the climatic system. It endows means for agriculture practices thus contributing to the food supply. Since climate and land are closely intertwined through multiple interface processes, climate change may lead to significant impacts in land use. In this study, 1-km observational gridded datasets are used to assess changes in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems in mainland Portugal. As such, two past periods were analyzed: 1950–1979 and 1990–2019. A compound bioclimatic-shift exposure index (BSEI) is defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are also analyzed. Results show an increase of 18.1% in the Warm Mediterranean with hot summer (Csa) climate in Portugal. This increase was followed by a 17.8% decrease in the Warm Mediterranean with warm summer (CSb) climate. Moreover, the WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of 5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, whilst humid to sub-humid ombrotypes decreased. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal. Results show that vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. As vineyards in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of these sectors. As similar problems can be found in other regions with Mediterranean-type climates, the main outcomes from this study can be easily extrapolated to other countries worldwide.

DOI:

Publication date: May 31, 2022

Issue: Terclim 2022

Type: Poster

Authors

Cristina Andrade1,2, André Fonseca2,3 and João A. Santos2,3,4

1Natural Hazards Research Center (NHRC.ipt), Instituto Politécnico de Tomar, Tomar, Portugal
2Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal
3Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri-Food Production, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal
4Department of Physics, School of Sciences and Technology, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Vila Real, Portugal

Contact the author

Keywords

Köppen-Geiger climate classification, worldwide bioclimatic classification ystem (WBCS), vineyards, Portugal

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terclim 2022

Citation

Related articles…

Climate, Viticulture, and Wine … my how things have changed!

The planet is warmer than at any time in our recorded past and increasing greenhouse emissions and persistence in the climate system means that continued warming is highly likely. Climate change has already altered the basic framework of growing grapes for wine production worldwide and will likely continue to do so for years to come. The wine sector can continue to play an important role in leading the agricultural sector in addressing climate change. From developing on…

Better understand the soil wet bulb formation with subsurface or aerial drip irrigation in viticulture

The gradual change in rainfall patterns experienced in the south of France vineyards, especially around the Mediterranean sea, means that the vines are increasingly subject to summer drought. The winegrowers developped the use of irrigation techniques to ensure the maintenance of competitive yields in the production of wines under Protected Geographical Indication label. In practice, drip irrigation pipes can be installed above the ground or buried into the soil as well as at different distances from the vine row. The objective of this study was to examine the profiles of the wet bulbs of the soil obtained from two drip irrigation systems : aerial drip located under the vine row and subsurface drip placed in the middle of the inter-row. This experiment took place over two consecutive seasons (2020-2021) on a 3.4 ha Viognier plot in the Mediterranean region (PGI Oc, France) on sandy clay soil. The annual rainfalls were less than 400 mm. Soil water content probes were installed at different depths (20 – 40 – 60 – 80 cm) and at different lateralities from the vine row (30 – 60 – 90 – 120 cm) to control the formation of the soil wet bulb during irrigation. The mapping and the analysis of the data allowed a better understanding and differentiation of the water percolation when irrigating with subsurface or aerial drip. For the same amount of water and without differences of vine water status, it is shown that in a subsurface drip irrigation situation, the size of the wet bulb formed is larger than in aerial drip irrigation system.

The interplay between grape ripening and weather anomalies – A modeling exercise

Current climate change is increasing inter- and intra-annual variability in atmospheric conditions leading to grapevine phenological shifts as well altered grape ripening and composition at ripeness. This study aims to (i) detect weather anomalies within a long-term time series, (ii) model grape ripening revealing altered traits in time to target specific ripeness thresholds for four Vitis vinifera cultivars, and (iii) establish empirical relationships between ripening and weather anomalies with forecasting purposes. The Day of the Year (DOY) to reach specific grape ripeness targets was determined from time series of sugar concentrations, total acidity and pH collected from a private company in the period 2009-2021 in North-Eastern Italy. Non-linear models for the DOY to reach the specified ripeness thresholds were assessed for model efficiency (EF) and error of prediction (RMSE) in four grapevine cultivars (Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, Glera and Garganega). For each vintage and cultivar, advances or delays in DOY to target specified ripeness thresholds were assessed with respect to the average ripening dynamics. Long-term meteorological series monitored at ground weather station by means of hourly air temperature and rainfall data were analyzed. Climate statistics were obtained and for each time period (month, bimester, quarter and year) weather anomalies were identified. A linear regression analysis was performed to assess a possible correlation that may exist between ripening and weather anomalies. For each cultivar, ripeness advances or delays expressed in number of days to target the specific ripening threshold were assessed in relation to registered weather anomalies and the specific reference time period in the vintage. Precipitation of the warmest month and spring quarter are key to understanding the effect of climate change on sugar ripeness. Minimum temperatures of May-June bimester and maximum temperatures of spring quarter best correlate with altered total acidity evolution and pH increment during the ripening process, respectively.

Adaptability of grapevines to climate change: characterization of phenology and sugar accumulation of 50 varieties, under hot climate conditions

Climate is the major factor influencing the dynamics of the vegetative cycle and can determine the timing of phenological periods. Knowledge of the phenology of varieties, their chronological duration, and thermal requirements, allows not only for the better management of interventions in the vineyard, but also to predict the varieties’ behaviour in a scenario of climate change, giving the wine producer the possibility of selecting the grape varieties that are best adapted to the climatic conditions of a certain terroir. In 2014, Symington Family Estates, Vinhos, established two grape variety libraries in two different places with distinctive climate conditions (Douro Superior, and Cima Corgo), with the commitment of contributing to a deeper agronomic and oenological understanding of some grape varieties, in hot climate conditions. In these research vineyards are represented local varieties that are important in the regional and national viticulture, but also others that have over time been forgotten — as well as five international reference cultivars. From 2017 to 2021, phenological observations have been made three times a week, following a defined protocol, to determine the average dates of budbreak, flowering and veraison. With the climate data of each location, the thermal requirements of each variety and the chronological duration of each phase have been calculated. During maturation, berry samples have been gathered weekly to study the dynamics of sugar accumulation, between other parameters. The data was analysed applying phenological and sugar accumulation models available in literature. The results obtained show significant differences between the varieties over several parameters, from the chronological duration and thermal requirements to complete the various stages of development, to the differences between the two locations, confirming the influence of the climate on phenology and the stages of maturation, in these specific conditions.

Heatwaves and grapevine yield in the Douro region, crop model simulations

Heatwaves or extreme heat events can be particularly harmful to agriculture. Grapevines grown in the Douro winemaking region are particularly exposed to this threat, due to the specificities of the already warm and dry climatic conditions. Furthermore, climate change simulations point to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of these extreme heat events, therefore posing a major challenge to winegrowers in the Mediterranean type climates. The current study focuses on the application of the STICS crop model to assess the potential impacts of heatwaves in grapevine yields over the Douro valley winemaking region. For this purpose, STICS was applied to grapevines using high-resolution weather, soil and terrain datasets over the Douro. To assess the impact of heatwaves, the weather dataset (1989-2005) was artificially modified, generating periods with anomalously high temperatures (+5 ºC), at certain onset dates and with specific durations (from 5 to 9 days). The model was run with this modified weather dataset and results were compared to the original unmodified runs. The results show that heatwaves can have a very strong impact on grapevine yields, strongly depending on the onset dates and duration of the heatwaves. The highest negative impacts may result in a decrease in the yield by up to -35% in some regions. Despite some uncertainties inherent to the current modelling assessment, the present study highlights the negative impacts of heatwaves on viticultural yields in the Douro region, which is critical information for stakeholders within the winemaking sector for planning suitable adaptation measures.