Climate change projections in serbian wine-growing regions

The wine sector is being directly affected by climate change. Temperatures above 30ºC can cause a lag between the ripening of the berry pulp (a rapid increase in sugar content) and the skin

In 2022, wine production was estimated at around 260 million hl. This high production rate implies to generate a large amount of by-products, which include grape pomace, grape stalks and wine lees. It is estimated that processing 100 tons of grapes leads to ~ 22 tons of by-products from which ~ 6 tons are lees [1]. Wine lees are a sludge-looking material mostly made of dead and living yeast cells, yeast debris and other particles that precipitate at the bottom of wine tanks after alcoholic fermentation. Unlike grape pomace or grape stalks, few strategies have been proposed for the recovery and valorisation of wine less [2].

To evaluate the current and future impact of climate change on Viticulture requires an integrated view on a complex interacting system within the soil-plant-atmospheric continuum under continuous change. Aside of the globally observed increase in temperature in basically all viticulture regions for at least four decades, we observe several clear trends at the regional level in the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Additionally the recently published 6th assessment report of the IPCC (The physical science basis) shows case-dependent further expected shifts in climate patterns which will have substantial impacts on the way we will conduct viticulture in the decades to come.
Looking beyond climate developments, we observe rising temperatures in the upper soil layers which will have an impact on the distribution of microbial populations, the decay rate of organic matter or the storage capacity for carbon, thus affecting the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the viscosity of water in the soil-plant pathway, altering the transport of water. If the upper soil layers dry out faster due to less rainfall and/or increased evapotranspiration driven by higher temperatures, the spectral reflection properties of bare soil change and the transport of latent heat into the fruiting zone is increased putting a higher temperature load on the fruit. Interactions between micro-organisms in the rhizosphere and the grapevine root system are poorly understood but respond to environmental factors (such as increased soil temperatures) and the plant material (rootstock for instance), respectively the cultivation system (for example bio-organic versus conventional). This adds to an extremely complex system to manage in terms of increased resilience, adaptation to and even mitigation of climate change. Nevertheless, taken as a whole, effects on the individual expressions of wines with a given origin, seem highly likely to become more apparent.

Climate is clearly one of the most important factors in the success of all agricultural systems, influencing whether a crop is suitable to a given region, largely controlling crop production and quality, and ultimately driving economic sustainability. Today many assessments of a region’s climate comes from a combination of station and spatial climate data analyses that facilitate the evaluation of the general suitability for viticulture and potential wine styles, allows for comparisons between wine regions, and offers growers a measure of assessing appropriate cultivars and sites.

Mint aromas in wine, which manifest as “cool” or “fresh” character, can originate from different chemical classes, one of which is the terpenoids. A broadly diverse, naturally occurring class of chemical compounds, terpenes possess wide applications across multiple industries due to their pharmaceutical, antiseptic, medical, and aromatic properties. Monoterpenes, a subclass of terpenoids, likewise play a major role in wine sensory perception. Within the monoterpenes, those possessing “mint” odor qualities have often been studied in the context of “vegetal” or “herbal” wine faults; however, their role in positive aromatic evolution is less understood. Yet an extensive 2015 study of older premium Bordeaux red wines identified mint as a contributing factor in quality bouquet development. From that point, it was necessary to investigate the origins of those monoterpenes as well as the chemical conditions required for their development during ageing. Those two key points could finally facilitate predicting the apparition of minty character in older wines based on their composition while young.
A principal contributor is the cyclic monoterpene limonene, which was isolated relatively early in grapes and wine. Not only does limonene itself possess a cool, fresh odor, it is also a precursor for, and possible derivative of, additional mint monoterpenes. Among the most commonly found monoterpenes, limonene and its derivatives can constitute the majority of the essential oils of citrus fruits, mint and herb plants, and coniferous trees. Many of these mint monoterpenes also occur in grapes and wine. With aromas ranging from woody and earthy to citrus to mint and herbaceous, their contribution to wine is potentially diverse and multi-faceted. While sometimes, found at concentrations below the sensory threshold, synergistic effects between these molecules could render them perceivable.
This review looks at limonene and its transformation as studied in different matrices, and potential parallels or analogues in wine. Moreover, within the complex kinetics of wine aging, the relative concentrations of mint monoterpenes appears to continue to evolve and change, with additional evidence from model wine solutions suggesting they may even revert to their originating precursors. Continued study of mint monoterpenes and their role in wine aromatics will contribute to a deeper understanding of the development of aging bouquet and the longevity of premium wines.