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IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 OIV 9 OIV 2024 9 Short communications - Economy and law 9 Anticipating consumer preference for low-alcohol wine: a machine learning analysis based on consumption habits and socio-demographics

Anticipating consumer preference for low-alcohol wine: a machine learning analysis based on consumption habits and socio-demographics

Abstract

The global wine consumption landscape is undergoing a transformation, marked by a growing trend towards reduced consumption and a preference for healthier lifestyles. In line with this shift, european union regulation (regulation eu 2021/2117) has recently redefined dealcoholized or partially dealcoholized wine within the wine category. However, comprehensive studies investigating consumer preferences for low-alcohol wine remain scarce. This study aims to anticipate consumer preference for low-alcohol wine based on consumers wine consumption habits and their socio-demographics.  Methodology: through an extensive review of relevant research, we identified key consumption habit characteristics and explored the mediating role of socio-demographics in influencing consumer preferences. The data were collected from 2022 to 2024 by sending surveys online to consumers in France, Germany, Italy and the United States, the four largest wine-consuming countries according to international organization of vine and wine (OIV). The survey comprised questions regarding consumers’ socio-demographics, wine consumption habits and preference for alcoholic content of wine. We employed various machine learning methods, treating each survey year as a repetition to identify the best modeling approach. After evaluating the performance of these methods, gradient boosting machines (gbm) emerged as the top performer. Results and implications: using gbm modeling, we discovered that interactions between consumption habits and socio-demographics exerted greater influence than consumption habits alone on consumer preference for low-alcohol wine. Specifically, interactions between respondents’ country of residence and frequency of wine purchases, as well as between occupation and frequency of purchasing red and white wine, emerged as factors that were relatively more influential. Particularly, individuals from germany who infrequently purchased certain types of wine exhibited a strong preference for low-alcohol varieties, as did those currently not employed who purchased red or white wine monthly. Our study underscores the importance of considering both consumption habits and socio-demographic factors in understanding consumer preferences for low-alcohol wine. Understanding these dynamics can inform targeted strategies for the production, marketing, and promotion of low-alcohol wine varieties to meet evolving consumer demands and preferences.

Anticipando la preferencia del consumidor por el vino bajo en alcohol: un análisis de aprendizaje automático basado en los hábitos de consumo y las  características socio-demográficas 

Objetivos y alcance: el panorama global del consumo de vino está experimentando una transformación, marcada por una tendencia creciente hacia un consumo reducido y una preferencia por estilos de vida más saludables. En línea con este cambio, la regulación de la unión europea (regulación UE 2021/2117) ha redefinido recientemente el vino desalcoholizado o parcialmente desalcoholizado dentro de la categoría del vino. Sin embargo, los estudios completos que investigan las preferencias del consumidor por el vino bajo en alcohol siguen siendo escasos. Este estudio tiene como objetivo anticipar la preferencia del consumidor por el vino bajo en alcohol basándose en los hábitos de consumo de vino de los consumidores y sus características socio-demográficas. Metodología: a través de una revisión exhaustiva de las investigaciónes relevantes publicadas, identificamos las principales características de los hábitos de consumo y exploramos el papel mediador de las características socio-demográficas en la influencia de las preferencias del consumidor. Los datos se recogieron de 2022 a 2024 mediante el envío de encuestas en línea a consumidores en Francia, Alemania, Italia y Estados Unidos, los cuatro países con mayor consumo de vino según la organización internacional de la viña y el vino (OIV). La encuesta incluyó preguntas sobre las características socio-demográficas de los consumidores, los hábitos de consumo de vino y la preferencia por el contenido alcohólico del vino. Empleamos diversos métodos de aprendizaje automático, tratando cada año de encuesta como una repetición para identificar el mejor enfoque de modelado. Después de evaluar el rendimiento de estos métodos, las máquinas de reforzamiento de gradiente (gbm) surgieron como las más destacadas. Resultados e implicaciones: mediante la modelización gbm, descubrimos que las interacciones entre los hábitos de consumo y las características socio-demográficas ejercían una mayor influencia que los hábitos de consumo solos en la preferencia del consumidor por el vino bajo en alcohol. Específicamente, las interacciones entre el país de residencia de los encuestados y la frecuencia de compra de vino, así como entre la ocupación y la frecuencia de compra de vino tinto y blanco, surgieron como factores relativamente más influyentes. En particular, las personas de alemania que raramente compraban ciertos tipos de vino mostraron una fuerte preferencia por las variedades bajas en alcohol, al igual que aquellos que actualmente no estaban empleados y compraban vino tinto o blanco mensualmente. Nuestro estudio subraya la importancia de considerar tanto los hábitos de consumo como los factores socio-demográficos para comprender las preferencias del consumidor por el vino bajo en alcohol. Comprender estas dinámicas puede informar estrategias dirigidas para la producción, comercialización y promoción de variedades de vino bajo en alcohol para satisfacer las cambiantes demandas y preferencias del consumidor.

Anticipando le preferenze dei consumatori per il vino a basso contenuto alcolico: un’analisi machine learning basata sulle abitudini di consumo e sulle caratteristiche socio-demografiche

Obiettivi e ambito: il panorama globale del consumo di vino sta subendo una trasformazione, contraddistinta da una tendenza crescente verso un consumo ridotto e una preferenza per stili di vita più sani. In linea con questo cambiamento, il regolamento dell’unione europea (regolamento UE 2021/2117) ha recentemente ridefinito il vino dealcolizzato o parzialmente dealcolizzato all’interno della categoria del vino. Tuttavia, studi completi che indaghino sulle preferenze dei consumatori per il vino a basso contenuto alcolico rimangono scarsi. Questo studio mira ad anticipare le preferenze dei consumatori per il vino a basso contenuto alcolico basandosi sulle abitudini di consumo del vino dei consumatori e sulle loro caratteristiche socio-demografiche. Metodologia: attraverso un’ analisi bibliografica estesa, abbiamo identificato le principali caratteristiche delle abitudini di consumo e esplorato il ruolo delle caratteristiche socio-demografiche nell’influenzare le preferenze dei consumatori. I dati sono stati raccolti dal 2022 al 2024 inviando sondaggi online ai consumatori in Francia, Germania, Italia e Stati Uniti, i quattro paesi con il maggior consumo di vino secondo l’organizzazione internazionale della vite e del vino (OIV). Il sondaggio comprendeva domande riguardanti le caratteristiche socio-demografiche dei consumatori, le abitudini di consumo del vino e la preferenza per il contenuto alcolico del vino. Abbiamo utilizzato vari metodi di machine learning, trattando ogni anno del sondaggio come una ripetizione per identificare l’approccio di modellizzazione migliore. Dopo aver valutato le performance di questi metodi, le gradient boosting machines (gbm) sono emerse come le più performanti. Risultati e implicazioni: abbiamo individuato che le interazioni tra le abitudini di consumo e le caratteristiche socio-demografiche esercitavano una maggiore influenza rispetto alle sole abitudini di consumo sulla preferenza dei consumatori per il vino a basso contenuto alcolico. In particolare, le interazioni tra il paese di residenza dei rispondenti e la frequenza degli acquisti di vino, così come tra l’occupazione e la frequenza degli acquisti di vino rosso e bianco, sono emerse come fattori relativamente più influenti. In particolare, gli individui provenienti dalla germania che acquistavano raramente certi tipi di vino manifestavano una forte preferenza per le varietà a basso contenuto alcolico, così come coloro che non lavoravano e acquistavano mensilmente vino rosso o bianco. Il nostro studio sottolinea l’importanza di considerare sia le abitudini di consumo che i fattori socio-demografici per comprendere le preferenze dei consumatori per il vino a basso contenuto alcolico. Comprendere queste dinamiche può informare strategie mirate per la produzione, il marketing e la promozione delle varietà di vino a basso contenuto alcolico per soddisfare le mutevoli esigenze e preferenze dei consumatori.

Publication date: November 18, 2024

Issue: OIV 2024

Type: Article

Authors

Mingze Rui¹, Federica Rosa², Andrea Viberti², Filippo Brun¹, Simone Blanc¹, Stefano Massaglia¹

¹ Department of Agricultural, Forest, and Food Sciences, University of Turin – Largo Paolo Braccini, 2, Grugliasco (TO), Italy
² RV Studio S.R.L – ItalyAffiliations

Contact the author*

Tags

IVES Conference Series | OIV | OIV 2024

Citation

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