Impact of climate change on the aroma of red wines: a focus on dried fruit aromas

Making high quality but affordable Pinot noir (PN) wine is challenging in most terroirs and New Zealand’s (NZ) situation is no exception. To increase the probability of making highly typical PN wines producers choose to grow grapes in cool climates on lower fertility soils while adopting labour intensive practices. Stringent yield targets and higher input costs necessarily mean that PN wine cost is high, and profitability lower, in line-priced varietal wine ranges. To understand the reasons why higher yielding vines are perceived to produce wines of lower quality we have undertaken an extensive study of PN in NZ. Since 2018, we established a network of twelve trial sites in three NZ regions to find individual vines that produced acceptable commercial yields (above 2.5kg per vine) and wines of composition comparable to “Icon” labels. Approximately 20% of 660 grape lots (N = 135) were selected from within a narrow juice Total Soluble Solids (TSS) range and made into single vine wines under controlled conditions. Principal Component Analysis of the vine, berry, juice and wine parameters from three vintages found grape berry mass to be most effective clustering variable. As berry mass category decreased there was a systematic increase in the probability of higher berry red colour and total phenolics with a parallel increase in wine phenolics, changed aroma fraction and decreased juice amino acids. The influence of berry size on wine composition would appear stronger than the individual effects of vintage, region, vineyard or vine yield. Our observations support the hypothesis that it is possible to produce PN wines that fall within an “Icon” benchmark composition range at yields above 2.5kg per vine provided that the Leaf Area:Fruit Weight ratio is above 12cm2 per g, mean berry mass is below 1.2g and juice TSS is above 22°Brix.

The aim of this work was to analyze the phenology variability of Tempranillo and Chardonnay cultivars, related to the climatic characteristics in La Mancha Designation of Origin, and their potential changes under climate change scenarios. Phenological dates referred to budbreak, flowering, veraison and harvest were analyzed for the period 2000-2019. The weather conditions at daily time scale, recorded during the same period, were also evaluated. The thermal requirements to reach each of these phenological stages were calculated and expressed as the GDD accumulated from DOY=60. Changes in phenology were projected by 2050 and 2070 taking into account those values and the projected temperatures and precipitation, simulated under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios –RCP4.5 and RCP8.5– using an ensemble of models. The average phenological dates during the period under study were, April 16th ± 6.6 days and April 5th ± 6.0 days for budbreak, May 31st ± 6.0 days and May 27th ± 5.3 days for flowering, July 26th ± 5.6 days and July 25th ± 5.8 days for veraison, and Ago 23rd ± 10.8 days and Ago 17th ± 9.0 days for harvest, respectively, for Tempranillo and Chardonnay. The projected changes in temperature imply an average change in the maximum growing season (April-August) temperatures of 1.2 and 1.9°C by 2050, and 1.6 and 2.6°C by 2070, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. A reduction in precipitation is predicted, which vary between 15% for 2050 under RCP4.5 scenario and up to 30% by 2070 under RCP8.5. The advance of the phenological dates for 2050, could be of 6, 7, 7, and 8 days for Tempranillo and 4, 6, 6 and 9 days for Chardonnay, respectively for budbreak, flowering, veraison and harvest under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the advance could be up to 30% higher.

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Current climate change is increasing inter- and intra-annual variability in atmospheric conditions leading to grapevine phenological shifts as well altered grape ripening and composition at ripeness. This study aims to (i) detect weather anomalies within a long-term time series, (ii) model grape ripening revealing altered traits in time to target specific ripeness thresholds for four Vitis vinifera cultivars, and (iii) establish empirical relationships between ripening and weather anomalies with forecasting purposes. The Day of the Year (DOY) to reach specific grape ripeness targets was determined from time series of sugar concentrations, total acidity and pH collected from a private company in the period 2009-2021 in North-Eastern Italy. Non-linear models for the DOY to reach the specified ripeness thresholds were assessed for model efficiency (EF) and error of prediction (RMSE) in four grapevine cultivars (Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, Glera and Garganega). For each vintage and cultivar, advances or delays in DOY to target specified ripeness thresholds were assessed with respect to the average ripening dynamics. Long-term meteorological series monitored at ground weather station by means of hourly air temperature and rainfall data were analyzed. Climate statistics were obtained and for each time period (month, bimester, quarter and year) weather anomalies were identified. A linear regression analysis was performed to assess a possible correlation that may exist between ripening and weather anomalies. For each cultivar, ripeness advances or delays expressed in number of days to target the specific ripening threshold were assessed in relation to registered weather anomalies and the specific reference time period in the vintage. Precipitation of the warmest month and spring quarter are key to understanding the effect of climate change on sugar ripeness. Minimum temperatures of May-June bimester and maximum temperatures of spring quarter best correlate with altered total acidity evolution and pH increment during the ripening process, respectively.

Agriculture, natural resource management and the production and sale of products such as wine are increasingly data-driven activities. Thus, the use of remote and proximal crop and soil sensors to aid management decisions is becoming commonplace and ‘Agtech’ is proliferating commercially; mapping, underpinned by geographical information systems and complex methods of spatial analysis, is widely used. Likewise, the chemical and sensory analysis of wines draws on multivariate statistics; the efficient winery intake of grapes, subsequent production of wines and their delivery to markets relies on logistics; whilst the sales and marketing of wines is increasingly driven by artificial intelligence linked to the recorded purchasing behaviour of consumers. In brief, there is data everywhere!

Opinions will vary on whether these developments are a good thing. Those concerned with the ‘mystique’ of wine, or the historical aspects of terroir and its preservation, may find them confronting. In contrast, they offer an opportunity to those interested in the biophysical elements of terroir, and efforts aimed at better understanding how these impact on vineyard performance and the sensory attributes of resultant wines. At the previous Terroir Congress, we demonstrated the potential of analytical methods used at the within-vineyard scale in the development of Precision Viticulture, in contributing to a quantitative understanding of regional terroir. For this conference, we take this approach forward with examples from contrasting locations in both the northern and southern hemispheres. We show how, by focussing on the vineyards within winegrowing regions, as opposed to all of the land within those regions, we might move towards a more robust terroir zoning than one derived from a mixture of history, thematic mapping, heuristics and the whims of marketers. Aside from providing improved understanding by underpinning terroir with data, such methods should also promote improved management of the entire wine value chain.