Terroir 2010 banner

Climate change impact study based on grapevine phenology modelling

Abstract

In this work we present a joint model of calculation the budbreak and full bloom starting dates which considers the heat sums and allows reliable estimations for five white wine grape varieties (Chardonnay, Szürkebarát (Pinot gris), Pinot blanc, Riesling, Hárslevelű) and their clone varieties in Hungary (Chardonnay 75 and 96, Riesling 239, 378, 391 and 49, Hárslevelű P.41 and K.9., Pinot blanc 54, 55 and D55, Szürkebarát 34 and 52). The base lower and upper temperatures have been determined by optimization, above which (threshold temperature) the accumulation of daily means is most active, or alternatively, below which the daily means are most sensitively expressed in the phenology. The model has been extended to the calculation of the end of the rest period (endodormancy), by optimization as well. We determined the lower and upper base temperatures separately for the budbreak and full bloom starting dates such that the lowest (normalized) sum of squares error, the lowest average absolute and the lowest maximum error of predictions can be achieved. We determined the optimal (lower) base temperature as 6 °C and the optimal starting date as the 41st Julian day of the year for the budbreak. Moreover, we set 10,45 °C and 26 °C as lower and upper optimal base temperatures for full bloom. The joint model was then applied to study the impact of climate change on budbreak and full bloom starting dates based on RegCM3.1 (regional) climate model. We calculated the expected shifts of budbreak and full bloom and proved that the changes are significant.

Download the PDF

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

M. Ladányi (1), E. Hlaszny (2), Gy. Pernesz (3), Gy. Bisztray (2)

(1) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. of Mathematics and Informatics, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(2) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. Of Viticulture, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(3) Central Agricultural Office, Budapest, Hungary

Contact the authors

Keywords

budbreak, vegetation period, phenology model, biologically effective day degrees, full bloom, starting dates of phenological stages, Vitis vinifera L.

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Viticultural zoning applications at the detailed scale of a cooperative winery: terroirs in St­hilaire-d’Ozilhan (AOC Côtes-du-Rhône)

La maîtrise de la typicité du vin s’élabore au niveau local ou communal d’une exploitation viticole et/ou d’une cave, unité de vinification. La cave coopérative de Saint-Hilaire­-d’Ozilhan (AOC Côtes-du-Rhône), dont le territoire communal s’étend sur une superficie de 1 670 ha, couvre près de 310 ha cultivés en vigne. Elle réalise des vinifications «au terroir», en utilisant des regroupements d’unités de sol en 9 unités de terroir potentiellement viticoles, définies en s’appuyant sur la parenté des substrats. Diverses sélections d’une même unité peuvent aboutir aussi à des vins différents, ce qui suggère une hétérogénéité spatiale de certaines unités définies.

Read More

Early Elgo Demetra: the new pink table variety seedless with big berry and resistant

Context and purpose of the study – This paper presents is the create, the study and amplographic description the new pink “Early Elgo Demetra” variety.

Read More

Contribution of grape and oak wood barrels to pyrrole content in wines – Influence of several cooperage parameters

Chardonnay is the world’s most planted white grape variety and has met a great commercial success for decades.

Read More

Meso-scale future climate modeling (5 km resolution): application over French wine regions under the SRES A2 scenario (2041-2050)

In order to assess climate change at regional scales suitable to viticulture, the outputs of ARPEGE_Climat global model (resolution 0.5°) were downscaled using the Regional Atmospheric

Read More

Extreme canopy management for vineyard adaptation to climate change: is it a good idea?

Climate change constitutes an enormous challenge for humankind and for all human activities, viticulture not being an exception. Long-term strategic changes are probably needed the most, but growers also need to deal with short-term changes: summers that are getting progressively warmer, earlier harvest dates and higher pH in musts and wines. In the last 10-15 years, a relevant corpus of research is being developed worldwide in order to evaluate to which extent extreme canopy management operations, aimed at reducing leaf area and, thus, limiting the source to sink ratio, could be useful to delay ripening. Although extreme canopy management can result in relevant delays in harvest dates, longer term studies, as well as detailed analysis of their implications on carbohydrate reserves, bud fertility and future yield are desirable before these practices can be recommended.

Read More