Climate change impact study based on grapevine phenology modelling

Abstract

In this work we present a joint model of calculation the budbreak and full bloom starting dates which considers the heat sums and allows reliable estimations for five white wine grape varieties (Chardonnay, Szürkebarát (Pinot gris), Pinot blanc, Riesling, Hárslevelű) and their clone varieties in Hungary (Chardonnay 75 and 96, Riesling 239, 378, 391 and 49, Hárslevelű P.41 and K.9., Pinot blanc 54, 55 and D55, Szürkebarát 34 and 52). The base lower and upper temperatures have been determined by optimization, above which (threshold temperature) the accumulation of daily means is most active, or alternatively, below which the daily means are most sensitively expressed in the phenology. The model has been extended to the calculation of the end of the rest period (endodormancy), by optimization as well. We determined the lower and upper base temperatures separately for the budbreak and full bloom starting dates such that the lowest (normalized) sum of squares error, the lowest average absolute and the lowest maximum error of predictions can be achieved. We determined the optimal (lower) base temperature as 6 °C and the optimal starting date as the 41st Julian day of the year for the budbreak. Moreover, we set 10,45 °C and 26 °C as lower and upper optimal base temperatures for full bloom. The joint model was then applied to study the impact of climate change on budbreak and full bloom starting dates based on RegCM3.1 (regional) climate model. We calculated the expected shifts of budbreak and full bloom and proved that the changes are significant.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

M. Ladányi (1), E. Hlaszny (2), Gy. Pernesz (3), Gy. Bisztray (2)

(1) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. of Mathematics and Informatics, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(2) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. Of Viticulture, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(3) Central Agricultural Office, Budapest, Hungary

Contact the authors

Keywords

budbreak, vegetation period, phenology model, biologically effective day degrees, full bloom, starting dates of phenological stages, Vitis vinifera L.

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Revisión de estudios sobre suelos vitícolas de las tierras del Jerez

Dada la importancia de los suelos y de los substratos geológicos en la zonificación vitivinícola, los autores realizan una revisión de estudios sobre las formaciones más importantes en la D.O. Jerez-Xérès-Sherry y Manzanilla-Sanlúcar de Barrameda.

La valorisation des Terroirs Viticoles par les Indications géographiques et les appellations d’origine

Le sujet proposé dans le thème “l’environnement juridique” est plus économique que juridique, et constitue une sorte de complément au sujet qui l’a précédé : analyse des marchés, stratégies commerciales et terroirs”.

Comparison of aroma-related compounds of carbonic maceration and traditional young red winemaking in case of Merlot by means of targeted metabolomic approach

Winemaking decisions and techniques are known to affect the final aromatic composition of red wines. Winemakers put a constant effort into the improved controlling of vinification procedures to achieve better quality. Anyway an increased customer’s demand for uniqueness is often forcing them to adjust and offer new and new interesting products. To support the producers, an improved knowledge on aromatic potential as affected by classical and alternative strategies is needed.

Induction of polyphenols in seedlings of Vitis vinifera cv. Monastrell by the application of elicitors

Contamination problems arising from the use of pesticides in viticulture have raised concerns. One of the alternatives to reduce contamination is the use of elicitors, molecules capable of stimulating the natural defences of plants, promoting the production of phenolic compounds (PC) that offer protection against biotic and abiotic stress. Previous studies on Cabernet-Sauvignon seedlings demonstrated that foliar application of elicitors methyl jasmonate (MeJ) and benzothiadiazole (BTH) increased proteins and PC involved in grapevine defence mechanisms. However, no trials had been conducted on Monastrell seedlings, a major winegrape variety in Spain.

Effect of Botrytis cinerea and esca on phenolic composition of berries and wines

This study showed that Botrytis cinerea could degrade the phenolic compounds by its enzymatic activity. It led to a diminution of skin’s anthocyanins from 20 % to 50 % and an increase level up to 40 % of individual proanthocyanins, 30 % of the %G and 25% of the %P.