Climate change impact study based on grapevine phenology modelling

Abstract

In this work we present a joint model of calculation the budbreak and full bloom starting dates which considers the heat sums and allows reliable estimations for five white wine grape varieties (Chardonnay, Szürkebarát (Pinot gris), Pinot blanc, Riesling, Hárslevelű) and their clone varieties in Hungary (Chardonnay 75 and 96, Riesling 239, 378, 391 and 49, Hárslevelű P.41 and K.9., Pinot blanc 54, 55 and D55, Szürkebarát 34 and 52). The base lower and upper temperatures have been determined by optimization, above which (threshold temperature) the accumulation of daily means is most active, or alternatively, below which the daily means are most sensitively expressed in the phenology. The model has been extended to the calculation of the end of the rest period (endodormancy), by optimization as well. We determined the lower and upper base temperatures separately for the budbreak and full bloom starting dates such that the lowest (normalized) sum of squares error, the lowest average absolute and the lowest maximum error of predictions can be achieved. We determined the optimal (lower) base temperature as 6 °C and the optimal starting date as the 41st Julian day of the year for the budbreak. Moreover, we set 10,45 °C and 26 °C as lower and upper optimal base temperatures for full bloom. The joint model was then applied to study the impact of climate change on budbreak and full bloom starting dates based on RegCM3.1 (regional) climate model. We calculated the expected shifts of budbreak and full bloom and proved that the changes are significant.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

M. Ladányi (1), E. Hlaszny (2), Gy. Pernesz (3), Gy. Bisztray (2)

(1) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. of Mathematics and Informatics, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(2) Corvinus Univ. of Budapest, Dpt. Of Viticulture, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary
(3) Central Agricultural Office, Budapest, Hungary

Contact the authors

Keywords

budbreak, vegetation period, phenology model, biologically effective day degrees, full bloom, starting dates of phenological stages, Vitis vinifera L.

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Sustainable fertilisation of the vineyard in Galicia (Spain)

Excessive fertilization of the vineyard leads to low quality grapes, increased costs and a negative impact on the environment. In order to establish an integrated management system aimed at a sustainable fertilization of the vineyards, nutritional reference levels were established. For this purpose, 30 representative vineyards of the Albariño variety were studied, in which soil and petiole analyses were carried out for two years and grape yield and quality at harvest were measured. In both years of study, soil pH, calcium, sodium and cation exchange capacity were positively correlated with calcium content and negatively correlated with manganese in grapes. Irrigated vineyards had higher levels of aluminium in soil and lower levels of calcium in petiole. Climatic conditions were very different in the years of the study. The year 2019 was colder than usual, in 2020 there was a marked water stress with high summer temperatures. This resulted in medium-high acidity in grapes in 2019 and low acidity in 2020, with sugar levels being similar both years. A very marked decrease in must amino nitrogen was observed in 2020, with ammonia nitrogen remaining stable. The correlation of acidity and sugar values in grapes with soil and petiole analysis data made it possible to establish reference levels for the nutritional diagnosis of the Albariño variety in this region. Based on these results, an easy-to-use TIC application is currently being created for grapegrowers, aimed at improving the sustainability of the vineyard through reasoned fertilization. This study has now been extended to other Galician vine varieties.

Dynamics of soil and canopy temperature: a conceptual approach for Alentejo vineyards

Climate change imposes increasing restrictions and risks to Mediterranean viticulture. Extreme heat and drought stress events are becoming more frequent which puts in risk sustainability of Mediterranean viticulture. Moreover row crops e.g. grapevine for wine, are increasingly prone to the impact of more intense/longer exposure time to heat stress. The amplified effects of soil surface energy reflectance and conductance on soil-atmosphere heat fluxes can be harmful for leaf and berry physiology.

Effect of “Terroir” on quanti-qualitative paramethers of “vino nobile di Montepulciano”

In this last ten years period, there has been many integrated and interdisciplinary studies to determine the aptitude of different zones to viticulture (Lulli et al., 1989 ; Costantini, 1992 ; Fregoni et al., 1992). The researches needed some différent knowledges about environment characteristics (soil, climate), ecology, vineyard management, vine genetic, winemaking and sensory analysis. The interaction of all these knowledge produced the assessment about the environmental vocation (Scienza et al., 1992). By means of this metodology, the “viticultural vocation” joined the word “zoning”, that is the territory parting for its ecopedological and geographical characteristics in relation to adaptative answer of winegrape (Morlat, 1989).

Physicochemical parameters of juices made from different grape varieties in the 2019 and 2020 Harvests of Rio Grande do Sul

This study evaluated the physicochemical parameters of grape juices produced in the serra gaúcha from the 2019 and 2020 harvests. To do this, 43 juice samples were analyzed, and divided into four distinct categories: juices made exclusively from bordô grapes (sb), juices made from bordô and niágara grapes (sbn), juices combining bordô and isabel grapes, and juices made from cuts of several grape varieties.

Genome editing applications on grapevine cv. Aglianico for the knockout of susceptibility genes related to fungal diseases

Context and purpose of the study. Italy hosts diverse grapevine varieties crucial for viticultural biodiversity. Preserving this biodiversity is essential for maintaining a diversified genetic pool and addressing future challenges such as climate change and emerging plant diseases.