Terroir 2010 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Abstract

In Portugal, and particularly in the Demarcated Region of Douro (DDR), wine production has a great tradition, producing the unique and worldwide famous Port wine as well as other remarkably good table wines. In this study the impact of projected climate change to wine production is analysed for the DDR. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) is developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations are identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle of grapevines. Close relationships between these climatic elements are found that influence the annual yield, with the GYM explaining over 50% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Furthermore, results point out a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements: anomalously high (low) precipitations in March, during bud break, shoot and inflorescence development are favourable (adverse) to yield, while anomalously high temperatures in May (bloom) and June (berry development) favour yield. The GYM is applied to output from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is shown to skilfully reproduce the GYM predictors. Considering ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, a slight upward trend in yield is estimated to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the 21st century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above its current values. The results emphasise the potential of using GYM coupled with regional atmospheric models to assess variations in grapevine yield owed to climate change. Complementary studies are in process in order to evaluate possible phenological shifts and wine quality impacts.

Download the PDF

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

J. A. Santos (1), A. C. Malheiro (1), M. K. Karremann (2), J. G. Pinto (2)

(1) Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
(2) Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, Douro, Portugal, yield modelling, climate scenarios, CLM

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

A sundial vineyard: impact of row density and orientation on cv. Cabernet-Sauvignon physiology and grape composition, insights to face a climate change scenario

An experimental vineyard with a radial array was planted in 2018, to provide valuable information on the relationship between orientation and planting density on plant physiology and cluster microclimate, and the consequent impacts on grape secondary metabolites, including aromas and polyphenols.
Read More

Effects of stress memory on grapevine resilience in response to recurrent drought and recovery events 

Plants have evolved different strategies to cope with environmental stresses and, although still debated, it was observed that they can remember past stress occurrence.
Anatomical and physiological adjustments have been observed in different grapevine cultivars after repeated drought exposure, however epigenetic, transcriptional and biochemical changes associated with drought-primed ecological memory have been poorly studied.
This work was conceived to test whether exposure to recurring events of mild drought could prime vines to endure severe drought stress. Particularly, we investigated whether the expected improved stress tolerance of Vitis vinifera cv Nebbiolo plants subjected over years to moderate and long-lasting water stress events (WS-primed) depended on molecular memory phenomena or on resetting of stress-induced signals.

Read More

Lactic acid bacteria: A possible aid to the remediation of smoke taint?

With climate change, the occurrence of wildfires has increased in several viticultural regions of the world. Subsequently, smoke taint has become a major issue, threatening the sustainability of the wine industry.

Read More

Mechanisms responsible for different susceptibility of grapevine varieties to flavescence dorée

Flavescence dorée (FD) is the most serious grapevine yellows disease in Europe. It is caused by phytoplasmas which are transmitted from grapevine to grapevine by the leafhopper Scaphoideus titanus.

Read More

Assessment of plant water consumption rates under climate change conditions through an automated modular platform

The impact of climate change is noticeable in the present weather, making water scarcity the most immediate mediator reducing the performance and viability of crops, including grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.). The present study developed a system (hardware, firmware, and software) for the determination of plant water use through changes in weight through a period. The aim is to measure the differences in grapevine water consumption in response to climate change (+4oC and 700 ppm) under controlled conditions. The results reveal a correlation between daily plant consumption rates and reference evapotranspiration (ETo).

Read More