Terroir 2010 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Abstract

In Portugal, and particularly in the Demarcated Region of Douro (DDR), wine production has a great tradition, producing the unique and worldwide famous Port wine as well as other remarkably good table wines. In this study the impact of projected climate change to wine production is analysed for the DDR. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) is developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations are identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle of grapevines. Close relationships between these climatic elements are found that influence the annual yield, with the GYM explaining over 50% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Furthermore, results point out a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements: anomalously high (low) precipitations in March, during bud break, shoot and inflorescence development are favourable (adverse) to yield, while anomalously high temperatures in May (bloom) and June (berry development) favour yield. The GYM is applied to output from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is shown to skilfully reproduce the GYM predictors. Considering ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, a slight upward trend in yield is estimated to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the 21st century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above its current values. The results emphasise the potential of using GYM coupled with regional atmospheric models to assess variations in grapevine yield owed to climate change. Complementary studies are in process in order to evaluate possible phenological shifts and wine quality impacts.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

J. A. Santos (1), A. C. Malheiro (1), M. K. Karremann (2), J. G. Pinto (2)

(1) Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
(2) Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, Douro, Portugal, yield modelling, climate scenarios, CLM

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Do high temperature extremes impact berry tannin composition?

Flavonoids, including flavonols, anthocyanins, and tannins, are important contributors to grape and wine quality, and their biosynthesis is strongly influenced by bunch microclimate.

CIEDE2000 colour difference value as a parameter for tracing the ageing process on wood aged spirits

It is quite common nowadays to carry out analyses which allow to control the ageing of spirits that are aged in wood casks. Many control parameters have been previously studied, such as the concentration of different phenolic compounds or the Total Polyphenol Index, in order to better understand the ageing process of wood aged spirits. On the other hand, it is frequent to analyse as a physical parameter the colour of those spirit samples, by stating them as an array of three coordinates from various colour spaces as CIE L*a*b* or CIE L*C*H*.

From vineyard to a glass of wine: the effect of abscisic acid application on mouhtaro, a rare autochthonous variety of greece

In a context of a sustainable viticulture, a new uprising strategy to improve grape and wine composition (or quality) is the exogenous application of plant activators(Gil-Muñoz et al., 2017)

Influence of must fining on wine pinking: relationship between electrochemical and colorimetric measurements and pinking attitude of wine

“Pinking” is a term used to define an abnormal pink coloration assumed by white wines in certain cases. Despite the are many hypotheses about the causes of this phenomenon, pinking still represents an issue for the wine industry. In the absence of reliable preventive strategies, wineries often rely on treatments such as charcoal fining, which is also negatively impacting wine aroma. This study aims at evaluating the potential of different fining agents based on animal or vegetal proteins to prevent wine pinking when applied at the level of must clarification. The work was carried out on Lugana wines, which is well-recognised as sensible to pinking problems. METHODS: Two experimental Lugana musts were obtained by applying a standard winemaking protocol and were then clarified with different commercial preparations based on vegetal proteins or casein, alone or in combination with PVPP. A control only using pectolytic enzyme was also prepared. Finings were carried out at 4°C for 16h, and the clear must (200 NTU) was then fermented in controlled conditions.

Sensory and consumer perceptions, and consumption barriers of low and no-alcohol wines in Trentino/Alto Adige

The growing demand for non-alcoholic beverages, driven by health-conscious consumers and shifting social norms, has positioned dealcoholized wines as a promising alternative in the global beverage industry (Akhtar et al., 2025, in press; Kakroo, 2024).