Terroir 2010 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Abstract

In Portugal, and particularly in the Demarcated Region of Douro (DDR), wine production has a great tradition, producing the unique and worldwide famous Port wine as well as other remarkably good table wines. In this study the impact of projected climate change to wine production is analysed for the DDR. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) is developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations are identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle of grapevines. Close relationships between these climatic elements are found that influence the annual yield, with the GYM explaining over 50% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Furthermore, results point out a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements: anomalously high (low) precipitations in March, during bud break, shoot and inflorescence development are favourable (adverse) to yield, while anomalously high temperatures in May (bloom) and June (berry development) favour yield. The GYM is applied to output from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is shown to skilfully reproduce the GYM predictors. Considering ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, a slight upward trend in yield is estimated to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the 21st century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above its current values. The results emphasise the potential of using GYM coupled with regional atmospheric models to assess variations in grapevine yield owed to climate change. Complementary studies are in process in order to evaluate possible phenological shifts and wine quality impacts.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

J. A. Santos (1), A. C. Malheiro (1), M. K. Karremann (2), J. G. Pinto (2)

(1) Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
(2) Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, Douro, Portugal, yield modelling, climate scenarios, CLM

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Adapting Portuguese vineyards to climate change: impact of different irrigation regimes on phenolic composition

Climate change has led to increased extreme weather events, such as severe droughts and intense rainfall, with regions like Alentejo and Algarve in Portugal, being particularly affected.

Development of a new method to understand headspace aroma distribution and explore the pre-sensory level in perceptive interactions involved in red wine fruity aroma expression

A part, at least, of red wines fruity expression may be explained by perceptive interactions involving particularly various substituted ethyl esters and acetates present at concentration far below their olfactory threshold, specifically thanks to synergistic effects. Wine sensory perception is directly linked to the stimulation of the taster at the level of olfactory epithelium by volatiles. These compounds are liberated from the matrix to the atmosphere, and will then be smelt. From a physico-chemical point of view, these volatiles ability to be released may be evaluated by their partition coefficients, which correspond to the volatile concentration ratio between the liquid and gas phase. Our goal is, through these coefficients determination, to assess if volatile matrix composition is able to impact the volatility of some compounds, and then explain sensory perception, i.eto evaluate what is called the pre-sensorial level impact.

THE EFFECT OF COPPER ON THE PRODUCTION OF VARIETAL THIOLS DURING THE ALCOHOLIC FERMENTATION OF COLOMBARD AND GROS MANSENG GRAPE JUICES

Nowadays, the rapid growth of vineyards with organic practices and the use of copper as the only fun-gicide against downy mildew raises again the question of the effect of copper on varietal thiols in wine, especially 3-sulfanylhexan-1-ol (3SH) and its acetate (3SHA). A few decades ago, several works indicated that the use of copper in the vineyard had a negative effect on the content of varietal thiols in Sauvignon blanc wines [1, 2]. However, these studies only considered the concentration of the reduced form (RSH) of varietal thiols, without quantifying the oxidised ones. For this purpose, we proposed to monitor both reduced and oxidised forms of varietal thiols in wine under copper stress during alcoholic fermentation to have a more complete picture of the biological and chemical mechanisms.

Consumer acceptance of sweet wines produced by stopping fermentation with octanoic and decanoic acids

The use of medium chain fatty acids for arresting the fermentation and producing sweet wines was investigated at industrial level. Doses of 10 mg/l of octanoic or decanoic acid and a combination of 5+5 mg/l octanoic and decanoic acid were used to produce sweet wines of tamaioasa romanească variety in volumes of 3000 l.

Impact of glutathione and elemental sulphur juice addition on the volatile thiol production in South African Sauvignon blanc wine

Three compounds, 3-mercaptohexanol (3MH), 3-mercaptohexyl-acetate (3MHA) and 4-mercapto-4-methylpentan-2-one (4MMP), also known as varietal thiols, have been identified to contribute positively to wine aroma and are responsible for the distinct gooseberry, grapefruit, guava and box tree character found in Sauvignon blanc wines. Certain volatile thiol compounds though, can cause off-aromas of onion, garlic, rubber and rotten egg, this group of molecules is known as reductive sulphur compounds (RSC). This study looks into how the addition of sulphur-compounds to Sauvignon blanc juice contributes to the varietal thiol (3MH and 3MHA) concentration and reductive sulphur compound concentration in South African Sauvignon blanc wine.