Terroir 2010 banner
IVES 9 IVES Conference Series 9 Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Grapevine productivity modelling in the Portuguese Douro Region

Abstract

In Portugal, and particularly in the Demarcated Region of Douro (DDR), wine production has a great tradition, producing the unique and worldwide famous Port wine as well as other remarkably good table wines. In this study the impact of projected climate change to wine production is analysed for the DDR. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) is developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations are identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle of grapevines. Close relationships between these climatic elements are found that influence the annual yield, with the GYM explaining over 50% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Furthermore, results point out a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements: anomalously high (low) precipitations in March, during bud break, shoot and inflorescence development are favourable (adverse) to yield, while anomalously high temperatures in May (bloom) and June (berry development) favour yield. The GYM is applied to output from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is shown to skilfully reproduce the GYM predictors. Considering ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, a slight upward trend in yield is estimated to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the 21st century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above its current values. The results emphasise the potential of using GYM coupled with regional atmospheric models to assess variations in grapevine yield owed to climate change. Complementary studies are in process in order to evaluate possible phenological shifts and wine quality impacts.

DOI:

Publication date: December 3, 2021

Issue: Terroir 2010

Type: Article

Authors

J. A. Santos (1), A. C. Malheiro (1), M. K. Karremann (2), J. G. Pinto (2)

(1) Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
(2) Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, Germany

Contact the author

Keywords

Grapevine, Douro, Portugal, yield modelling, climate scenarios, CLM

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2010

Citation

Related articles…

Advancing grapevine science through genomic research

The seminar will examine the complexities and prospects of genomic research on Vitis species, characterize by exceptionally high heterozygosity and common interspecific gene flow. The seminar will showcase case studies highlighting the critical role of diploid genome references in grape research, specifically in areas such as aroma development, disease resistance, and domestication traits. It will also address the emerging focus on pangenomes within the Vitis genus, particularly in the context of genetic studies on naturally interbreeding populations.

The suitability for viticulture at varying altitudes: a study of grapevine ripening in the Italian Alps

Planting vineyards in cooler climates has been used over recent years as
a strategy to counter the climatic shifts caused by climate change. A move towards higher altitudes in hilly and mountainous wine regions may provide a solution to deleterious effects that increased ambient temperatures have on wine quality. Until now, the influences of higher altitudes and their climates, as well as their effect on vine growing cycles, still holds a lot of scientific uncertainty. The transnational EU-funded project REBECKA (Interreg V-A IT-AT: ITAT1002, duration: 2017-2019) has the objective to develop a regional valuation method to rate the suitability for viticulture in South Tyrol (Italy) and Carinthia (Austria). Preliminary surveys were performed regarding the effects of altitude on ripening performance of the cultivar Pinot Noir.

Organic mulches improve vine vigour, yield and physiological response in a semi-arid region

Recycled organic mulch within the row in vineyard floor management has become an interesting ecological strategy to adapt the crop to climate change consequences in semi-arid regions.
This study aimed to assess the impact of three recycled organic mulches [straw (STR), grape pruning debris (GPD), and spent mushroom compost (SMC)] and two conventional soil management practices [herbicide (HERB) and under-row tillage (TILL)] on vegetative vigour (NDVI), production (kg/plant), and physiological parameters (δ13C in grapes and leaf gas exchange during four grapevine phenology stages). Additionally, temperature and water soil parameters were collected at three soil depths. Data was collected during the 2021 and 2022 grapevine growing seasons in La Rioja, Spain.

Enological characters of thirty vines in four different zones of Tuscany

In the last few years the development of HPLC techniques together with multivariate statistical methods allowed to set methodics of large discriminant and classing efficacy in the study of wine-grapes.

Assessment of antimicrobial effect of chitosan extracted from different sources against unwanted wine microorganisms

During wine production process high attention to the microbiological control from fermentation of the grape must to bottling is necessary. In fact, control of the indigenous microflora of the grape ensures correct fermentation activity of the inoculated starter, while control of the microorganisms in the finished wine is essential to prevent wine spoilage and to ensure the dominance of the desired bacteria when malolactic fermentation is required (Mas and Portillo, 2022).