The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

The effects of alternative herbicide free cover cropping systems on soil health, vine performance, berry quality and vineyard biodiversity in a climate change scenario in Switzerland

There is an urgent need in viticulture to adopt alternative herbicide-free soil management strategies to mitigate climate change, increase biodiversity, reduce plant protection products and improve soil quality while minimizing detrimental effects on grapevine’s stress tolerance and fruit quality. To propose sustainable solutions, adapted to different pedoclimatic conditions in Switzerland, we developed a multidisciplinary 4-year project, started in 2020. Objectives of the project are to a) evaluate the impact of green covers (spontaneous flora, winter cover crop and permanent ground cover) on environmental and agronomic parameters and b) develop subsequently innovative strategies for different viticultural contexts of Switzerland. The project is divided into 3 phases: 1) diagnosis, 2) on-farm and 3) on-station experiments. Phase 1) consisted in an assessment of 30 commercial vineyards all over Switzerland, where growers already use different herbicide-free soil management strategies. The most promising practices identified in this exploratory phase will be replicated in commercial vineyards across Switzerland (“on-farm”) as well as in a classical randomized block design in an experimental plot (“on-station”). For phase 1), measurements consisted in evaluation of soil status (compaction, structure, roots development), soil microbial diversity (metagenomics), plant diversity and biomass, vine physiology (water stress, vigor, leaf nitrogen) and berry quality (acidity, sugar, available nitrogen). Interestingly, the permanent ground cover resulted in a higher Shannon index thus a higher biodiversity as compared to the other itineraries. The winter cover crop increased vine nitrogen and vigor while deteriorating soil quality, leaving the soil more exposed and compacted likely due to more frequent tillage. The spontaneous flora led to higher berry sugar accumulation, less nitrogen and higher malic acid concentration putatively due to a higher water retention of the flora in a particularly wet vintage. Phases 2) and 3) are required to confirm those tendencies, over the 3 next vintages and different climatic conditions.

Clustering wine aromatic composition of Vitis vinifera grapevine varieties

Climate change is likely to impact wine typicity across the globe, raising concerns in wine regions historically renowned for the quality of their terroir. Amongst several changes in viticultural practices, replacing some of the planting material (i.e clones, rootstocks and cultivars) is thought to be one of the most promising potential levers to be used for adapting to climate change. But the change of cultivars also involves the issue of protecting the region’s wine typicity.

How the physical components of the terroir can differently intervene in French wines DPO definitions.Example of Côte de Nuits in Burgundy

European regulations describe what elements must be given in the specifications of DPO determination ; mainly production conditions, links between quality and products characteristics and the physical traits of the production area. These elements are given in the “link to terroir” paragraph relating natural and human factors, detailed product characteristics linked to the geographical area and at last interactions between product originality and the geographical area.

Grape pomace, an active ingredient at the intestinal level: Updated evidence

Grape pomace (GP) is a winemaking by-product particularly rich in (poly)phenols and dietary fiber, which are the main active compounds responsible for its health-promoting effects. GP-derived products have been proposed to manage cardiovascular risk factors, including endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, hypertension, hyperglycemia, and obesity. Studies on the potential impact of GP on gut health are much more recent. However, it is suggested that, to some extent, this activity of GP as a cardiometabolic health-promoting ingredient would begin in the gastrointestinal tract as GP components (i.e., (poly)phenols and fiber) undergo extensive catabolism, mainly by the action of the intestinal microbiota, that gives rise to low-molecular-weight bioactive compounds that can be absorbed and utilized by the body.

Development of a new method to understand headspace aroma distribution and explore the pre-sensory level in perceptive interactions involved in red wine fruity aroma expression

A part, at least, of red wines fruity expression may be explained by perceptive interactions involving particularly various substituted ethyl esters and acetates present at concentration far below their olfactory threshold, specifically thanks to synergistic effects. Wine sensory perception is directly linked to the stimulation of the taster at the level of olfactory epithelium by volatiles. These compounds are liberated from the matrix to the atmosphere, and will then be smelt. From a physico-chemical point of view, these volatiles ability to be released may be evaluated by their partition coefficients, which correspond to the volatile concentration ratio between the liquid and gas phase. Our goal is, through these coefficients determination, to assess if volatile matrix composition is able to impact the volatility of some compounds, and then explain sensory perception, i.eto evaluate what is called the pre-sensorial level impact.