Terroir 2014 banner

The future of wine grape growing regions in europe

Abstract

Recent warming trends in climatic patterns are now evident from observational studies. Nowadays, investigating the possible impacts of climate change on biological systems has a great importance in several fields of science. 

We applied the MaxEnt modelling approach to predict the possible effect of climate change on wine grape distribution as a species at European scale using basic bioclim variables. Two climate models were developed for 2050 and 2080 by Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. The area loss is calculated for the main wine producing countries in Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy). 

Based on the analysis of variable contribution we can conclude that annual mean temperature has great importance in model performance while precipitation variables show much less contribution. The prediction of the best model for the present fits well to the known wine growing regions. Future predictions show consistent changes based on various climate scenarios: wine growing regions are predicted to shift northwards. At the same time, additional problems might arise in the Mediterranean region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula where the most radical changes are predicted (30 % losses in average). France and Italy are less affected. For 2080 the suitable areas continuously decrease except for France where only a small amount of area loss is predicted. The predicted stability until 2050 is dynamic implying adaptation such as change of grape varieties, selection or modification of cultivation technology could be necessary even in those regions which remains suitable in the future.

Download the PDF

DOI:

Publication date: August 11, 2020

Issue: Terroir 2014

Type: Article

Authors

János P. TÓTH (1), Zsolt VÉGVÁRI (2)

(1) Research Institute for Viticulture and Oenology, Tarcal, H-3915 Tarcal, Könyves Kálmán Str. 54., Hungary 
(2) Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen – Hortobágy National Park Directorate, H-4024 Debrecen Sumen Str. 2., Hungary

Contact the author

 

Keywords

Vitis vinifera, climate change, MaxEnt, bioclim, climate scenarios

Tags

IVES Conference Series | Terroir 2014

Citation

Related articles…

Chemical and biochemical formation of polysulfides in synthetic and real wines using UHPLC-HRMS

ulfur compounds in wine have been studied for several years due to their impact on wine flavour, but the role of polysulfides is a recent topic. Polysulfides in wine are formed when two sulfhydryl groups oxidize, especially in presence of elemental sulfur or metal catalysts from field treatment residues (Ugliano et al. 2011). These compounds are odourless, but can degrade during storage and affect the wine quality. The mechanism of their formation is still largely unknown but different chemical and biochemical pathways have been suggested. Disulfides from cysteine (Cys) and glutathione (GSH) have been revealed in model wines (Kreitman et al. 2016) and more recently also higher polymerized forms in real wines (Van Leeuwen et al. 2020). Volatile varietal thiols like 3-mercaptohexanol (3MH) and 4-mercaptopentanone (4MMP) – flavour compounds with tropical or fruity notes – could undergo similar reactions, also with Cys and GSH, subsequently losing their flavour property (fate). Even more concerning is the possible release of H2S from polysulfides during storage, leading to undesired off-flavours (Sarrazin et al. 2010).
Read More

MOVING FROM SULFITES TO BIOPROTECTION: WHICH IMPACT ON CHARDONNAY WINE?

Over the last few years, several tools have been developed to reduce the quantity of sulfites used during winemaking, including bioprotection. Although its effectiveness in preventing the development of spoilage microorganisms has been proven, few data are available on the impact of sulfite substitution by bioprotection on the final product. The objective of this study was therefore to characterize Chardonnay wines with the addition of sulfite or bioprotection in the pre-fermentation stage. The effects of both treatments on resulting matrices was evaluated at several scales: analysis of classical oenological parameters, antioxidant capacity, phenolic compounds, non-volatile metabolome and sensory profile.

Read More

Unexpected relationships between δ13C, water deficit, and wine grape performance

Water nutrition is crucial for wine grape performance. Thus soil investigation aims at characterizing spatial and temporal variability of available water. A possible strategy

Read More

Black foot disease in South African vineyards and grapevine nurseries

Over the last few years a drastic reduction has been noted in the survival rate of vine cuttings in nurseries, as well as in young vineyards in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. The low average take percentages of young vines can be attributed to several factors, including fungal, bacterial and viral diseases, insect and nematode pests,

Read More

The capacity of spectrofluorometric fingerprints to discern changes of wine composition: applications in classifying wine additives and tracking red wine maturation and ageing

Fluorescence spectroscopy combined with chemometrics has shown advantages in wine analysis due to being rapid, sensitive, and selective to fluorescent molecules. Especially due to the abundant phenolic compounds [1], the molecular fingerprints afforded by fluorescence spectroscopy can potentially be used to discern and track the change of wine composition, with two innovative investigations having been implemented.

Read More